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Emmanuel Matot
  • Emmanuel Matot

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 28/03/2024

Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la Chin...

Emmanuel Matot
  • Emmanuel Matot

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/28/2024

With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a substantia...

Emmanuel Matot
  • Emmanuel Matot

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 28/03/2024

Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la Chin...

Arnaud Autier ... (+2)
  • Arnaud Autier
  • Pierre Tegner

Pernod Ricard : North America division presentation feedback

>Outperform maintained with TP unchanged at € 190 - Outperform reiterated and target price maintained at € 190. Valuation at 17x PE NTM is still attractive on a quality stock like Pernod Ricard. The growth recovery has been further delayed but the sequential improvement of group performance is a sign that the worst is behind. Conor McQuaid, the new North America division CEO held a presentation this morning to present the division and its perspectives. Reassuring mess...

Arnaud Autier ... (+2)
  • Arnaud Autier
  • Pierre Tegner

Pernod Ricard : North America division presentation feedback

>Outperform maintained with TP unchanged at € 190 - Outperform reiterated and target price maintained at € 190. Valuation at 17x PE NTM is still attractive on a quality stock like Pernod Ricard. The growth recovery has been further delayed but the sequential improvement of group performance is a sign that the worst is behind. Conor McQuaid, the new North America division CEO held a presentation this morning to present the division and its perspectives. Reassuring mess...

Chaima Ferrandon ... (+3)
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Delphine Brault
  • Sven Edelfelt

ODDO : Focus on Construction: a bitter present (2024), a sweeter futur...

With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a subst...

Chaima Ferrandon ... (+3)
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Delphine Brault
  • Sven Edelfelt

ODDO : Focus construction : un présent amer (2024), un futur plus doux...

Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

KONE : Showcasing modernisation or hopes for enhanced momentum

China still accounts for 26% of group sales (and our scenario is not that of a recovery), but the weight of modernisation has continued to grow. It should reach 18% of sales this year, a level now compatible with the alternative source of growth role, expected to be 'high single digit' in the coming years. Sales should return to growth of 5% per annum as of 2025 and the adjusted EBIT margin could reach 14% in 2027. The stock is trading at a discount of 13% vs its historic EV/EBIT...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

KONE : La modernisation en vedette ou l’espoir d’un momentum meilleur

La Chine représente encore 26% du chiffre d’affaires du groupe (et notre scénario n’est pas celui d’une reprise) mais le poids de la modernisation n’a cessé de croître. Il devrait atteindre 18% du CA cette année, un niveau désormais compatible avec le rôle de relais de croissance, attendue ‘high single digit’ dans les prochaines années. La croissance du CA du groupe devrait renouer avec 5% par an à partir de 2025 et la marge d’EBIT ajusté pourrait atteindre 14% en 2027. Le titre ...

Chaima Ferrandon ... (+3)
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Delphine Brault
  • Sven Edelfelt

ODDO : Focus on Construction: a bitter present (2024), a sweeter futur...

With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a subst...

Chaima Ferrandon ... (+2)
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Sven Edelfelt

CRH : A star already in orbit

>Superb performance and stock widely owned - Based on the stock’s exceptional performance and the consensus in evidence, we think it offers lower outperformance potential in the medium term. We nonetheless remain convinced of the exceptional nature of the equity story in view of the entry into the American S&P TMI index or the Russell 1000, which could lead to another surge. There is no rush, but the most enlightened investors are likely to have already begun to reduc...

Pierre François Merveille
  • Pierre François Merveille
IPS IPSOS SA
AMS AMS AG ... (+6)

Orange : Feedback 5th TMT Credit Days – 20 & 21 March 2024

On 20 & 21 March, we organized our 5th TMT credit days with eight issuers in the telecoms, media and technology sectors: ams OSRAM, Cellnex, Ipsos, Masmovil, Nexi, Orange, SoftBank Group and Worldline. 84 credit investors registered to the event. - This document summarizes our feedback of the virtual meetings by issuer. - > - - - ...

Pierre François Merveille
  • Pierre François Merveille
IPS IPSOS SA
AMS AMS AG ... (+6)

Orange : Feedback 5th TMT Credit Days – 20 & 21 March 2024

On 20 & 21 March, we organized our 5th TMT credit days with eight issuers in the telecoms, media and technology sectors: ams OSRAM, Cellnex, Ipsos, Masmovil, Nexi, Orange, SoftBank Group and Worldline. 84 credit investors registered to the event. - This document summarizes our feedback of the virtual meetings by issuer. - > - - - ...

Chaima Ferrandon ... (+3)
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Delphine Brault
  • Sven Edelfelt

ODDO : Focus construction : un présent amer (2024), un futur plus doux...

Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la...

Chaima Ferrandon ... (+2)
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Sven Edelfelt

CRH : Une étoile déjà satellisée et sur orbite

>Une superbe performance et un titre largement détenu - La performance boursière exceptionnelle et le caractère consensuel, nous laissent penser que le titre présente un moindre potentiel de surperformance à moyen terme. Nous restons pour autant convaincus du caractère exceptionnel de l’equity story dans la perspective de l’entrée dans l’indice Américain S&P TMI ou le Russell 1000 qui pourrait amener un nouveau sursaut. Rien ne presse mais les investisseurs les plus a...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Credit Morning 03/27/2024

Closing of the JV agreement in Spain between Orange and Masmovil Emeria reports weak Q4 The Italian State sells 12.5% of BMPS capital on the market, reducing its stake to 26.7%.>...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Morning Crédit 27/03/2024

Closing de la création de la JV à 50-50 entre Masmovil et Orange en Espagne Emeria publie un T4 faible L’Etat italien cède dans le marché 12.5% du capital de BMPS et ramène sa participation à 26.7%>...

 PRESS RELEASE

CRH completes second phase of European lime divestment

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- On 22 November 2023, CRH plc announced that it had reached an agreement to divest its lime operations in Europe for a total consideration of c.$1.1 billion. CRH is pleased to announce that the second phase of the transaction, comprising the Group’s lime operations in the UK, is now complete. About CRH CRH (NYSE: CRH, LSE: CRH) is the leading provider of building materials solutions that build, connect and improve our world. Employing c.78,500 people at c.3,390 operating locations in 29 countries, CRH has market leadership positions in both North America and Europe...

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