Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight Our bullish outlook we initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the S&P 500 (implying 7-10% downside) and market dynamics remain healthy. To be clear, we are not calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&P 500, and we simply want to be prepared for anything. Shorter-term, we remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Upgrading Materials to Market Weight We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious. This still has not happened, meaning the short-term trend remains bullish. Closes below their 20-day MAs have been extremely rare since the October 2023 bottom, with buyers stepping-in immediately. Still, we need to be prepared. If we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on the S&P 500 an...
STRATEGY Large-cap indexes (S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs. Mid-caps (S&P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) started another leg higher in February, following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (Russell 2000) are unsurprisingly following in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps, and are the latest to break out from their 2.5-month consolidations/high bases. The number of ris...
Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) and Treasury Yields Roll Over The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. This is a hallmark of bull markets; we will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change. In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact. Gold and Silver Breaking Out as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) a...
U.S. Dollar (DXY), 10-Yr Treasury Yield Rolling Over Large-caps (SPY, QQQ, DIA) remain bullish, mid-caps (IJH) are starting to outperform, and small-caps (IWM, IJR) are finally breaking out from major 2-year bases. Market generated information continues to tell us that a resurgence on the inflation front is unlikely; the 10-year Treasury yield has not been able to break above major 4.35% resistance and appears to be rolling over, while mid-caps are starting to outperform (and potentially small-...
n this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Rolling Over We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. U.S. Dollar (DXY); 10-Year Treasury Yield. We continue to get more evidence that suggests the U.S. dollar (DXY) is rolling over; last week we discussed the failed breakout a...
U.S. Dollar (DXY) Rolling Over Large-cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs. Mid-caps (S&P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) are starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps, and are likely to break out from their 2.5-month consolidations/high bas...
U.S. Dollar (DXY) Rolling Over Large-cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs. Mid-caps (S&P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) are starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps, and are likely to break out from their 2.5-month consolidations/high bas...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports (CPI and PPI), the S&P 500 remains above its 20-day MA, and, more notably, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs. Small-caps are supposed to fall and/or underperform if inflation is on the rise. When stocks do the opposite of what is expected of them, that is valuable information. The fact that small- and m...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Small- and Mid-Caps to Outperform? In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports (CPI and PPI), the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) remain above their 20-day MAs, and, more notably, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs. We believe the fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed amid hot inflation reports is a sign that we could see them continue to outperform in the weeks/months ahead, as large-caps take a b...
Yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI report continues to suggest a more restrictive Fed policy than the market has been expecting. This raises the possibility of further consolidation for small- and mid-caps. Meanwhile, large-cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023; the only question is whether that will continue to be the case, as our main concern remains rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have bro...
Int'l Equity Strategy Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024. As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, the main potential concern that could derail this bull market is a continued move higher in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields. Ultimately, we believe any weakness in ACWI-US is likely to present a buying opportunity as long as the 10-year Treasury y...
Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY) The Fed wanting "greater confidence" that inflation is sustainably moving toward its 2% target signals a patient approach with respect to rate cuts, meaning a more restrictive policy than the market expected. This is disproportionately hitting small- and mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps, while large-cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remai...
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