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Valens Research
  • Valens Research

Valens Credit Weekly Insights - 2024 02 27

LPL Financial (LPLA) has created a powerful platform to empower independent and smaller scale wealth advisors to compete with the big players like Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley. Uniform Accounting highlights the company's operational improvements that the market is missing, indicating equity upside.• LPL has reformulated the value proposition of being an independent RIA with its asset-light advisor platform. Uniform ROA has expanded to new peaks above 20%, which is sustainable going forward. ...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

Valens Credit Weekly Insights - 2024 03 20

Valens Credit Research team highlights ROST, which has a compelling bond offering that we believe the market is currently mispricing, with strong fundamentals, favorable management alignment, and an actionable trade.

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

Valens Credit Weekly Insights - 2024 02 20

nVent (NVT) has been rolling up the protected enclosure business to become a key vendor to the “electrification of everything” trend related to the modernization of American corporate infrastructure. Uniform Accounting highlights that the market is missing nVent's improving competitive position and its massive upcoming tailwinds, indicating equity upside. nVent is looking to become a one-stop shop for all types of enclosures, fastenings, and thermal management solutions for electrical component...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

SQ - Valens Credit Report - 2024 03 18

Credit markets are overstating SQ's credit risk with a YTW of 5.627% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.740% and an Intrinsic CDS of 65bps. Furthermore, Moody's is overstating SQ's fundamental credit risk with its speculative Ba2 credit rating four notches below Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. As positives, most management members are material owners of SQ equity relative to their annual compensation, indicatin...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

ZIP - Valens Credit Report - 2024 03 18

Credit markets are slightly overstating ZIP's credit risk with a YTW of 7.368% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 6.737% and an Intrinsic CDS of 265bps. Furthermore, Moody's is materially overstating ZIP's fundamental credit risk with its B1 credit rating six notches below Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. As a positive, most members of management are material owners of ZIP equity relative to their annual compensat...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

CNC - Valens Credit Report - 2024 03 13

Cash bond markets are overstating CNC's credit risk with a YTW of 5.617% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.827%, while CDS markets are slightly overstating credit risk with a CDS of 126bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 69bps. Furthermore, Moody's is overstating CNC's fundamental credit risk with its Ba1 credit rating three notches below Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. As positives, most management members ar...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

Valens Credit Weekly Insights - 2024 03 13

Valens Credit Research team highlights AMKR, which has a compelling bond offering that we believe the market is currently mispricing, with strong fundamentals, favorable management alignment, and an actionable trade.

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

ROST - Valens Credit Report - 2024 03 11

Credit markets are overstating ROST's credit risk with a YTW of 5.568% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.822% and an Intrinsic CDS of 43bps Meanwhile, Incentive Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly negative signals for creditors. As a positive, all management members are material owners of ROST equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they may be well-aligned with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation for the company. Earnings Call Forensics™ analysis of the f...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

UBER - Valens Credit Report - 2024 03 06

Cash bond markets are overstating credit risk with a YTW of 5.931% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.724%, while CDS markets are slightly overstating risk with a CDS of 89bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 38bps. In addition, Moody's is overstating UBER's fundamental credit risk with its Ba3 credit rating, four notches below Valens' IG4 (Baa2) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. As a positive, all members of management are material ...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

MSCI - Valens Credit Report - 2024 03 05

Credit markets are accurately stating MSCI's credit risk with a YTW of 5.693% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.553% and an Intrinsic CDS of 123bps. Meanwhile, Moody's is overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with its speculative Ba1 credit rating two notches below Valens' IG4 (Baa2) credit rating.

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

RRC - Valens Credit Report - 2024 03 05

Credit markets are materially overstating credit risk with a YTW of 6.394% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.624%. Meanwhile, credit markets are overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with its Ba2 credit rating four notches lower than Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly positive signals for credit holders. RRC's compensation framework incentivizes management to improve all three value drivers: sales, margins, and asset utilization...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

Valens Equity Weekly Insights - 2024 03 12

Centene (CNC) is the largest managed health care provider for Medicaid and one of the top providers for Medicare as well with over 26 million members across all of its services. Uniform Accounting highlights that the market is overly pessimistic given exaggerated fears surrounding government spending, suggesting the potential for equity upside. Centene is one of the largest managed care organizations (“MCO”) in the United States. The company provides healthcare services to nearly one in 15...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

Valens Credit Weekly Insights - 2024 03 06

Valens Credit Research team highlights RRC, which has a compelling bond offering that we believe the market is currently mispricing, with strong fundamentals, favorable management alignment, and an actionable trade.

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

Valens Equity Weekly Insights - 2024 03 05

Unum (UNM) is one of the largest insurance companies in the world serving over 180,000 companies and protecting over 45 million individuals. Uniform Accounting highlights that the market is overly pessimistic given exaggerated fears surrounding its closed block business, suggesting the potential for equity upside. Unum is one of the leaders in the insurance industry. The company provides group protection services to more than 180,000 companies and protects more than 45 million individuals acro...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

FCX - Valens Credit Report - 2024 03 01

Credit markets are slightly overstating credit risk with a YTW of 5.343% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.813% and a CDS of 112bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 48bps. Incentives Dictate BehaviorTM analysis highlights positive signals for debt holders. compensation framework incentivizes management to improve all three value drivers: sales, margins, and asset utilization, which should drive Uniform ROA improvement and lead to improved cash flows available for servicing obligations going forw...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

BA - Valens Credit Report - 2024 02 23

Cash bond markets are overstating BA's credit risk with a YTW of 5.340% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.310%, while CDS markets are slightly overstating risk with a CDS of 76bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 15bps. Incentives Dictate BehaviorTM analysis highlights mostly positive signals for credit holders. Management's compensation framework should drive them to focus on all three value drivers: margin expansion, asset efficiency, and top-line growth, which should lead to Uniform ROA expan...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

TEX - Valens Credit Report - 2024 02 26

Credit markets are slightly overstating TEX's credit risk with a YTW of 6.402% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.682%, and a CDS of 182bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 138bps. Furthermore, Moody's is materially overstating TEX's fundamental credit risk with its highly speculative Ba3 credit rating five notches below Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate BehaviorTM analysis highlights positive signals for credit holders. TEX's metrics should generally drive management to focus...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

MOH - Valens Credit Report - 2024 02 27

Cash bond markets are overstating MOH's credit risk with a YTW of 6.033% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.103%, while CDS markets are slightly overstating credit risk with a CDS of 152bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 83bps. Furthermore, Moody's is grossly overstating MOH's fundamental credit risk with its highly speculative Ba3 credit rating eight notches below Valens' IG3+ (A1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate BehaviorTM analysis highlights mostly negative signals for credit holders. As a...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

CIEN - Valens Credit Report - 2024 02 22

Credit markets are slightly overstating CIEN's credit risk with a YTW of 5.965% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.295% and an Intrinsic CDS of 105bps. Furthermore, Moody's is overstating the company's fundamental credit risk, with its speculative Ba1 credit rating three notches lower than Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate BehaviorTM analysis highlights mostly negative signals for credit holders. As a positive, management has low change-in-control compensation relative to the...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

AMCX - Valens Credit Report - 2024 02 21

Credit markets are grossly overstating AMCX's credit risk with a YTW of 12.652% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 8.879% and an Intrinsic CDS of 458bps. Furthermore, Moody's is materially overstating AMCX's fundamental credit risk with its B1 credit rating four notches below Valens' XO (Baa3) credit rating. Incentives Dictate BehaviorTM analysis highlights mostly positive signals for credit holders. AMCX's compensation metrics should drive management to focus on all three value drivers: margin ex...

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