Recent data continues to be negative, and several headwinds in Q1. Q1e EBITA -30% y-o-y (vs Q4 -18%), and we are 11% below cons. We would be careful over Q1, but earnings recovery from Q2e; HOLD.
Total lending decreased by 0.2% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.6% and retail lending 0.6%) and by -0.1% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was down by 0.1% y-o-y (corporate lending -1.3% and retail lending 0.6%)
Of our basket of 41 stocks, returns were positive for 33 and negative for 8 over the week. Median performance 4.1%, average 9.9%. Sub-sectors: Wind (3%), Solar (7%), Hydrogen (7%), Cleantech/other (2%).
Total lending in February was up 3.3% y-o-y (corporate +4.8%; retail +2.4%) and was flat (0.0%) m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 2.7% y-o-y (corporate +4.3%; retail +1.8%).
The Norwegian salmon price is likely to decrease to a level of NOK 120-121/kg (weighted avg. FCA Oslo) next week vs. NOK 123-124/kg this week, according to market participants.
February smolt release in Chile was 11.0m (-13% y-o-y), with smolt release for '25e harvest down 12% y-o-y (ABGSCe +2%). Chilean biomass down 7% y-o-y, suggesting limited harvest potential short-term
Q1e: higher volumes, but strikes weigh on EBIT. March metal rally supply-driven, but demand still weak. HOLD: recent performance leaves little valuation upside.