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Roelof-Jan van den Akker
  • Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Analysis/Brent Oil

Breaking above the upper end of the falling trend channel: Prices are at last rising again after almost consolidating during the past four months, with prices hovering around the flat longer-term moving average lines. The EMA-200 line around US$79.50/bbl and the EMA-40 line at US$82.50/bbl.

Bert Colijn
  • Bert Colijn

Eurozone money growth and bank lending show cautious recovery

After some declines in 2023 on the back of tightening policy, both money growth and bank lending have started to increase again ever so slightly. For the European Central Bank, this shows that at the current pace of lending, investment will remain very muted

Carsten Brzeski
  • Carsten Brzeski

German labour market remains resilient on the outside but shows weaken...

Unemployment this month dropped less than it generally has done in March since the financial crisis, suggesting that the very gradual cooling or turning of the labour market continues

Roelof-Jan van den Akker
  • Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Analysis/Bund future

A short-term top should be close at hand. The weekly chart made a new low within this year's correction at 131.54, but closed 118bp higher at 133.12. However, as long as prices are not showing a weekly close above the EMA-40 line, this week at 133.72, we should expect lower prices. Solid support in the weekly chart comes in at the former upper end of the 15-month falling trend channel and horizontal line, both around the 130.70 level. A higher bottom around this support area should be followed ...

Ewa Manthey ... (+2)
  • Ewa Manthey
  • Warren Patterson

The Commodities Feed: Bearish EIA report

Crude oil prices have been trading little changed this morning, with a bearish EIA report weighing on the sentiment

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Azelis: Acquisition of MDK in personal care APAC. Fastned: FY23 annual report published. Results Calendar

Chris Turner ... (+3)
  • Chris Turner
  • Francesco Pesole
  • Frantisek Taborsky

FX Daily: Fed foot-dragging and low volatility dominate

It has been a good night for the dollar. One of the Fed's most influential voices, Christopher Waller, delivered a mildly hawkish speech - firming up the view that the Fed will be arriving late to the rate cut party. At the same time, the S&P rating agency reaffirmed the US sovereign rating at AA+ with a stable outlook. Low FX volatility also dominates

Carsten Brzeski
  • Carsten Brzeski

German consumers still in hibernation

Disappointing retail sales and still weak consumer confidence suggest that the consumption-driven recovery remains more of a dream than reality for Germany

Marine Leleux ... (+4)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen
  • Timothy Rahill

Playing the liability structure/Preferred senior has become less entic...

Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.

Marine Leleux ... (+4)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen
  • Timothy Rahill

Playing the liability structure/Preferred senior has become less entic...

Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.

Marine Leleux ... (+4)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen
  • Timothy Rahill

Playing the liability structure/Preferred senior has become less entic...

Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.

Marine Leleux ... (+4)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen
  • Timothy Rahill

Playing the liability structure/Preferred senior has become less entic...

Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.

Marine Leleux ... (+4)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen
  • Timothy Rahill

Playing the liability structure/Preferred senior has become less entic...

Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.

Benjamin Schroeder ... (+4)
  • Benjamin Schroeder
  • Michiel Tukker
  • Padhraic Garvey
  • CFA

Rates Spark: ECB June expectations firm up, US rates trail

It's the last day ahead of a long Easter weekend which covers month-end and includes a PCE release on Good Friday – markets can be more erratic than usual. Data wise, it could get interesting with more country CPIs out of the eurozone as ECB June cut expectations firm up again

Francesco Pesole
  • Francesco Pesole

FX derivatives hedging idea: Hedging EUR/USD upside ahead of expected ...

In this FX derivatives hedging idea, we focus on how corporates looking to hedge EUR/USD upside can benefit from a moderate rebound in the pair in the next six months by obtaining an effective hedging rate lower than the current forward. Despite being bearish on the dollar, we think EUR/USD may be capped around 1.12-1.13 in a 6M horizon. Here, we present two six-month Inverse Forward Extra hedging strategies, one with barrier only valid at expiry (European KO) and another one with barrier valid ...

David Szonyi ... (+3)
  • David Szonyi
  • Frantisek Taborsky
  • Peter Virovacz

Monitoring Hungary: Waiting for more clarity

In our latest update, we reassess our Hungarian economic and market forecasts at a time when uncertainty remains high. The extent of the economic recovery is still undetermined, as is the fiscal outlook. Monetary policy enters a new phase in the second quarter as two rounds of reflation are ahead of us

Marine Leleux ... (+3)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Bank Brunch/Bond performance dashboard, ESRB on prudential and resolut...

Performance dashboard. ESRB finds prudential and resolution regulation for systemically important banks more efficient when combined

Marine Leleux ... (+3)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Bank Brunch/Bond performance dashboard, ESRB on prudential and resolut...

Performance dashboard. ESRB finds prudential and resolution regulation for systemically important banks more efficient when combined

Roelof-Jan van den Akker
  • Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Analysis/Cocoa

Cocoa goes parabolic: The bullish breakout above the horizontal resistance around US$4,275/MT mid-January in the daily chart was the start of an ongoing accelerated rise within the uptrend, which is still intact. Yesterday, prices reached the US$10,000/MT mark, making a high at US$10,080/MT. We do not believe that this is the top, with a bullish price target for US$10,360/MT in the May contract.

Bert Colijn
  • Bert Colijn

Sentiment is slowly improving for the eurozone economy

The end of a long period of stagnation in the eurozone is getting closer as businesses are becoming more upbeat about the months ahead. Inflation expectations for services are becoming more benign, which will confirm the ECB's view that rates can moderate

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