Breaking above the upper end of the falling trend channel: Prices are at last rising again after almost consolidating during the past four months, with prices hovering around the flat longer-term moving average lines. The EMA-200 line around US$79.50/bbl and the EMA-40 line at US$82.50/bbl.
After some declines in 2023 on the back of tightening policy, both money growth and bank lending have started to increase again ever so slightly. For the European Central Bank, this shows that at the current pace of lending, investment will remain very muted
A short-term top should be close at hand. The weekly chart made a new low within this year's correction at 131.54, but closed 118bp higher at 133.12. However, as long as prices are not showing a weekly close above the EMA-40 line, this week at 133.72, we should expect lower prices. Solid support in the weekly chart comes in at the former upper end of the 15-month falling trend channel and horizontal line, both around the 130.70 level. A higher bottom around this support area should be followed ...
It has been a good night for the dollar. One of the Fed's most influential voices, Christopher Waller, delivered a mildly hawkish speech - firming up the view that the Fed will be arriving late to the rate cut party. At the same time, the S&P rating agency reaffirmed the US sovereign rating at AA+ with a stable outlook. Low FX volatility also dominates
Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.
Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.
Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.
Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.
Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.
It's the last day ahead of a long Easter weekend which covers month-end and includes a PCE release on Good Friday – markets can be more erratic than usual. Data wise, it could get interesting with more country CPIs out of the eurozone as ECB June cut expectations firm up again
In this FX derivatives hedging idea, we focus on how corporates looking to hedge EUR/USD upside can benefit from a moderate rebound in the pair in the next six months by obtaining an effective hedging rate lower than the current forward. Despite being bearish on the dollar, we think EUR/USD may be capped around 1.12-1.13 in a 6M horizon. Here, we present two six-month Inverse Forward Extra hedging strategies, one with barrier only valid at expiry (European KO) and another one with barrier valid ...
In our latest update, we reassess our Hungarian economic and market forecasts at a time when uncertainty remains high. The extent of the economic recovery is still undetermined, as is the fiscal outlook. Monetary policy enters a new phase in the second quarter as two rounds of reflation are ahead of us
Cocoa goes parabolic: The bullish breakout above the horizontal resistance around US$4,275/MT mid-January in the daily chart was the start of an ongoing accelerated rise within the uptrend, which is still intact. Yesterday, prices reached the US$10,000/MT mark, making a high at US$10,080/MT. We do not believe that this is the top, with a bullish price target for US$10,360/MT in the May contract.
The end of a long period of stagnation in the eurozone is getting closer as businesses are becoming more upbeat about the months ahead. Inflation expectations for services are becoming more benign, which will confirm the ECB's view that rates can moderate
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.