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Min Joo Kang
  • Min Joo Kang

Japan: Stronger-than-expected retail sales, softer-than-expected indus...

Today's data releases were a bit mixed with weaker-than-expected IP and stronger-than-expected retail sales. Tokyo inflation hasn't changed much at above the 2% level. We believe that the Bank of Japan will pay more attention to the improvement in retail sales and sticky inflation data than to weak IP and labour results driven by an idiosyncratic factor

Min Joo Kang
  • Min Joo Kang

Korea: Industrial production rebounded while construction and retail s...

Thanks to strong global demand for semiconductors, IP rose more than expected. But, domestic demand appears to have weakened further, which is likely to weigh on overall GDP growth in the current quarter

Nadège Tillier
  • Nadège Tillier

EnBW/Strong 2023 earnings, 2024 low guidance, a too well-known trend

EnBW[de] reported very strong YE23 earnings. The German utility's business model evolves around three pillars: smart infrastructure (sale of gas and power, telecom activities, storage and E-mobility), System Critical Infrastructure (transmission and distribution grids) and Sustainable Generation infrastructure (heating, trading, conventional and renewable energy generation). EnBW's 2023 EBITDA growth (+60% vs 2022) was mainly driven by the company's conventional electricity generation and tradin...

Frantisek Taborsky ... (+3)
  • Frantisek Taborsky
  • Stefan Posea
  • Valentin Tataru

Monitoring Romania

Our latest update does not bring material changes to our main views. Yet we highlight the overdue fiscal correction and persistent inflation as reasons for the National Bank of Romania to take its rate-cutting cycle slowly. Growth-wise, EU funds should continue to boost public investments, while private consumption will turn more supportive

Roelof-Jan van den Akker
  • Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical analysis/US 10-year Treasury Note

• Prices are hovering around the flat EMA-40 line at the 111 level and prices must close above the horizontal resistance area 112 9/64-113 13/64 to confirm that prices have bottomed, followed by further upside. Until then, we cannot rule out a decline towards lower prices. A weekly close below the February low at 109 18/64 would be bearish, suggesting we could see a retest of last year's low around the 105 24/68 level. Solid longer-term horizontal support in the monthly chart comes in between 1...

Adam Antoniak ... (+10)
  • Adam Antoniak
  • Bert Colijn
  • James Knightley
  • James Smith
  • Lynn Song
  • Min Joo Kang
  • Muhammet Mercan
  • Nicky Mapa
  • Peter Virovacz
  • Rob Carnell

Our view on next week's key events

Discover what ING analysts are looking for next week in our global economic calendars

Marine Leleux ... (+3)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Bank Brunch/Some roll TLTROs via the ECB, less preferred senior supply...

Banks rely a tad more on the shorter ECB funding operations to absorb the TLTRO redemptions. Preferred senior bond supply sees a large drop in sustainable issuances. Playing the liability structure-preferred senior less enticing

Paolo Pizzoli
  • Paolo Pizzoli

Italian business confidence improves in March as consumers take a brea...

Overall this is a positive reading, marking an improvement among manufacturers and a surprising resilience among builders. Consumers are taking a breather, showing tentative concerns about future unemployment for the first time in months

Marine Leleux ... (+3)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Bank Brunch/Some roll TLTROs via the ECB, less preferred senior supply...

Banks rely a tad more on the shorter ECB funding operations to absorb the TLTRO redemptions. Preferred senior bond supply sees a large drop in sustainable issuances. Playing the liability structure-preferred senior less enticing

Roelof-Jan van den Akker
  • Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Analysis/Brent Oil

Breaking above the upper end of the falling trend channel: Prices are at last rising again after almost consolidating during the past four months, with prices hovering around the flat longer-term moving average lines. The EMA-200 line around US$79.50/bbl and the EMA-40 line at US$82.50/bbl.

Bert Colijn
  • Bert Colijn

Eurozone money growth and bank lending show cautious recovery

After some declines in 2023 on the back of tightening policy, both money growth and bank lending have started to increase again ever so slightly. For the European Central Bank, this shows that at the current pace of lending, investment will remain very muted

Carsten Brzeski
  • Carsten Brzeski

German labour market remains resilient on the outside but shows weaken...

Unemployment this month dropped less than it generally has done in March since the financial crisis, suggesting that the very gradual cooling or turning of the labour market continues

Roelof-Jan van den Akker
  • Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Analysis/Bund future

A short-term top should be close at hand. The weekly chart made a new low within this year's correction at 131.54, but closed 118bp higher at 133.12. However, as long as prices are not showing a weekly close above the EMA-40 line, this week at 133.72, we should expect lower prices. Solid support in the weekly chart comes in at the former upper end of the 15-month falling trend channel and horizontal line, both around the 130.70 level. A higher bottom around this support area should be followed ...

Ewa Manthey ... (+2)
  • Ewa Manthey
  • Warren Patterson

The Commodities Feed: Bearish EIA report

Crude oil prices have been trading little changed this morning, with a bearish EIA report weighing on the sentiment

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Azelis: Acquisition of MDK in personal care APAC. Fastned: FY23 annual report published. Results Calendar

Chris Turner ... (+3)
  • Chris Turner
  • Francesco Pesole
  • Frantisek Taborsky

FX Daily: Fed foot-dragging and low volatility dominate

It has been a good night for the dollar. One of the Fed's most influential voices, Christopher Waller, delivered a mildly hawkish speech - firming up the view that the Fed will be arriving late to the rate cut party. At the same time, the S&P rating agency reaffirmed the US sovereign rating at AA+ with a stable outlook. Low FX volatility also dominates

Carsten Brzeski
  • Carsten Brzeski

German consumers still in hibernation

Disappointing retail sales and still weak consumer confidence suggest that the consumption-driven recovery remains more of a dream than reality for Germany

Marine Leleux ... (+4)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen
  • Timothy Rahill

Playing the liability structure/Preferred senior has become less entic...

Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.

Marine Leleux ... (+4)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen
  • Timothy Rahill

Playing the liability structure/Preferred senior has become less entic...

Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.

Marine Leleux ... (+4)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen
  • Timothy Rahill

Playing the liability structure/Preferred senior has become less entic...

Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.

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