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Pedro Fonseca
  • Pedro Fonseca

ABC arbitrage - FY23 results in line with market conditions

ABC arbitrage group (ABCA) reported net income of €16.5m in FY23, 43% lower than FY22, but in line with market conditions. Financial markets in 2023 were characterised by lower volatility than in the previous three years, affecting ABCA’s volatility-based strategies. At the same time, mergers and acquisitions volume was 30% lower year-on-year, mostly due to higher borrowing costs, limiting acquisition arbitrage opportunities. In 2023, ABCA also had a temporary halt in its activities in digital a...

Kate Heseltine
  • Kate Heseltine

Gym Group - The power of marginal gains

Gym Group has accompanied confirmation of FY23 profit resilience and continued buoyancy (like-for-like revenue up 12% in the first two months of 2024) with a clear commitment ‘to accelerate, not reinvent the wheel.’ The latter is telling with new senior management endorsing Gym Group’s sweet spot as a low-cost operator in the long-term growth market of health and fitness. Its confidence in material scope for enhanced pricing and member acquisition and retention is complemented by expansion targe...

Sean Conroy
  • Sean Conroy

Mendus - Regulatory green light for CADENCE trial

The Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC) has provided the green light to commence enrolment for Mendus’s AMLM22-CADENCE trial from April 2024. This Phase II trial in collaboration with the Australasian Leukaemia and Lymphoma Group, a clinical trial research group focused on haematological cancers, will evaluate lead cancer vaccine vididencel, in combination with standard of care oral azacitidine (Onureg) as a maintenance treatment for acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). A pivotal global registratio...

Pedro Fonseca
  • Pedro Fonseca

Alpha Bank - Full steam ahead

Alpha Bank (Alpha) reported €611m in net profit, a 66% jump from FY22, as the bank benefited from an elevated interest rate environment with little impact from deposit migration and strong cost control. Alpha delivered a normalised return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 12.9% in FY23, beating its own upgraded target of >11.5%. The increased profitability coupled with a robust capital position (fully loaded common equity tier 1 (FL CET1) of 14.3%) have enabled a proposed dividend of €0.05 a share, s...

Kate Heseltine
  • Kate Heseltine

Dalata Hotel - A strong hand

Dalata’s FY23 deployment of €156m in high-profile hotel opportunities in London, Amsterdam and Edinburgh as well as the newly announced proposed redevelopment at Manchester Airport show the scale and nature of its accelerating growth strategy, enabled by ‘considerable firepower’ (FY23 net debt to EBITDA after rent of just 1.3x). While the focus on cities in the UK and Continental Europe with favourable dynamics, for example London, is self-evidently appealing, there is reassurance in the success...

Fiona Orford-Williams
  • Fiona Orford-Williams

S4 Capital - Extension of recovery horizon

S4 Capital had a difficult FY23, as flagged, with reduced client confidence and spend, particularly from those clients in the tech sector, and on larger transformation projects. Management is cautious in the short term, with no substantive changes likely in H124, but sees conditions likely to improve in H224 as economic pressures ease. The group’s longer-term prospects should be buoyed by its positioning across data and digital marketing and, in particular, in incorporating AI into hyper-persona...

Richard Williamson
  • Richard Williamson

Datatec - FY24 revenue growth of 5.8%

Datatec expects to report revenue of $5.44bn for FY24, up 5.8% y-o-y, and noted that the quality of earnings improved in the year. During H224, Westcon International continued to deliver a strong financial performance. Logicalis International also had a strong half, although its reported revenue growth has been suppressed by a higher proportion of net revenue-reported software sales. Logicalis Latin America had a tougher H2 due to difficult market conditions in Argentina and Brazil. We maintain ...

Toby Thorrington
  • Toby Thorrington

AG Barr - Fizzing away

AG Barr’s (BAG’s) FY23 results highlighted the strength of the brand portfolio as group volumes (+2.4%) outperformed the UK soft drinks category decline of 2.9%. Key brands IRN-BRU (33% of FY24 revenue) and Rubicon (19% of FY24 revenue) grew 8% and 15%, respectively, as flavour innovation and format mix helped to drive volume growth. Management anticipates margin enhancement initiatives to yield a 100bp operating margin uplift in FY25, aided by greater in-sourcing and other efficiency gains. M&A...

Sanjeev Bahl
  • Sanjeev Bahl

Kolibri Global Energy - FY23 reserves show solid replacement rates

Kolibri (KEI) released its annual reserves statement, which showed good replacement rates despite a visible increase in average production in FY23. At end-2023, the company’s total gross proved reserves declined by only 3% y-o-y to 32.4mmboe, while the total gross reserves increased by 3% to 79.4mmboe. KEI also reported a netback from operations of US$43.0/boe in FY23, marginally below our estimate of US$43.5/boe, on total average production of 2,796mboe. We will update our estimates and valuati...

Sean Conroy
  • Sean Conroy

Recce Pharmaceuticals - R&D advance (A$11.18m) extends runway

Recce Pharmaceuticals recently received A$11.18m as an R&D advance credit through an arrangement with Endpoints Capital for the R&D tax credit rebates that Recce expects to receive for FY23/FY24 and FY25. We believe this non-dilutive source of funding should extend Recce’s operating runway into FY25. Recce is also continuing to advance its intravenous (IV) R327 formulation in its ongoing Phase I/II study in healthy volunteers, having recently started the 20-minute (3,000mg) dosing cohort. We hav...

Sean Conroy
  • Sean Conroy

Immix Biopharma - Marching towards US clinical trials for NXC-201

Immix Biopharma is closer to dosing its first US patient for lead CAR-T asset NXC-201, with the appointment of the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center as the main clinical site for the company’s US multi-site NEXICART-2 trial assessing NXC-201 in relapsed/refractory (r/r) amyloid light chain amyloidosis (ALA). NXC-201 targets B-cell maturation antigen (BCMA) and is differentiated by its low neurotoxicity and short cytokine release syndrome (CRS) duration to date, supporting Immix’s long-term ...

Pedro Fonseca
  • Pedro Fonseca

Ocean Wilsons Holdings - Strong FY23 results with strategic review in ...

Ocean Wilsons Holdings’ (OCN’s) FY23 results highlight a robust performance from the Brazilian subsidiary Wilson Sons, as well as growth from the investment portfolio. Our forecasts are under review following the announcement but, prior to this, we valued OCN at 2,564p/share, which implies it is currently trading at a 48% discount. Given the strong trading and optimistic outlook, risks appear to be to the upside.

Kate Heseltine
  • Kate Heseltine

Kinepolis - On the move

Kinepolis is ‘ready to tango’, according to management, after impressive FY23 results defied last year’s Hollywood strikes (H2 adjusted EBITDA up 26% despite 2% fewer visitors in Q4). Its confidence is compounded by an improving film slate on the strikes’ resolution (eg blockbuster Dune: Part Two postponed from 2023) as well as clear post-pandemic expansion opportunities, heightened by the impact of the strikes and enabled by the company’s strong finances. However, premiumisation remains at the ...

Sean Conroy
  • Sean Conroy

IRLAB Therapeutics - FDA thumbs up to mesdopetam’s Phase III plan

IRLAB Therapeutics has confirmed the FDA’s alignment with its proposed Phase III programme for mesdopetam in levodopa-induced dyskinesias (PD-LIDs), following receipt of the minutes from its end-of-Phase II (EoP2) meeting held last month. Notably, the FDA has agreed on the primary endpoint being the Unified Dyskinesia Rating Scale (UDysRS), on which mesdopetam demonstrated a statistically significant improvement (p=0.026) in the Phase IIb study (secondary endpoint of that study). IRLAB will now ...

Richard Williamson
  • Richard Williamson

Nano Dimension - Growth in a tough market

Nano Dimension made good progress growing revenue and gross margins in FY23. The company is now focused on reducing cash burn and moving to profitability, via its Reshaping Nano initiative, and is simultaneously looking to acquire in the additive manufacturing space to consolidate its position. Nano Dimension continues to buy back shares while they trade at a discount to book value.

Richard Williamson
  • Richard Williamson

Northern Data Group - First transparency milestone achieved

Northern Data Group released its FY22 results as scheduled, reflecting delays due to its transformation into a diversified high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure solutions provider. Despite significant crypto price declines, the group achieved year-on-year revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA positivity, driven by investments in mining compute power and a small inaugural cloud computing contribution. Ethereum’s shift to proof-of-stake led to substantial impairment, driving an operating lo...

Toby Thorrington
  • Toby Thorrington

Quadrise - Funding the gap to commercial revenues

Quadrise continues to advance towards commercial revenues for its innovative fuel and biofuel technologies, with each of its projects approaching key milestones in 2024. Preparatory steps for the MSC Shipmanagement (MSC) fuel trials are now complete and fuel supply agreements are nearing finalisation. Quadrise will achieve its first licensing revenues on the successful completion of Valkor’s project financing (timing uncertain). Quadrise also successfully concluded its Morocco trial, paving the ...

Toby Thorrington
  • Toby Thorrington

Greencoat Renewables - Acquisitions generating more green

Greencoat Renewables (GRP) recorded positive FY23 results, with continued strong net cash generation of €196.7m (2022: €215m) underpinning a significantly covered dividend of 2.7x (2022: 3.2x). NAV per share (112.1 cents) decreased marginally from the previous year (112.4 cents) due to a reduction in short-term power prices and an increase in the portfolio discount rate, both largely offset by strong cash generation. GRP is strongly cash generative (reflecting the quality of its assets) and this...

Pedro Fonseca
  • Pedro Fonseca

Henderson EuroTrust - Proposed merger with Henderson European Focus Tr...

On 14 March, the boards of Henderson European Focus Trust (HEFT) and Henderson EuroTrust (HNE) announced the proposed merger of the two companies to form Henderson European Trust. The resulting enlarged fund will be managed by Janus Henderson Investors’ (JHI’s) European equities team. There will be two co-managers, Tom O’Hara (currently co-lead manager of HEFT) and Jamie Ross (currently lead manager of HNE). While each co-manager has their own expertise, they share a fundamental investment philo...

Pedro Fonseca
  • Pedro Fonseca

HgT - Strong earnings growth and realisations in FY23

HgCapital Trust (HgT) posted an 11.1% NAV total return in FY23 (based on final audited numbers), which allowed it to sustain strong five- and 10-year returns of 20.4% and 18.4% pa, respectively. This has been mostly driven by robust earnings momentum across its portfolio. HgT defied the tough private equity exit environment, generating £345.9m of total realisation proceeds excluding carried interest in FY23. Moreover, it has a healthy commitment coverage ratio of 73% (based on current pro forma ...

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