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Mate Somlai-Kiss
  • Mate Somlai-Kiss

Massive export growth ahead

This is a transition of coverage, and we upgraded our estimates following theoutstanding FY23 earnings results. We conservatively expect ANY to distribute a DPSof HUF 258 and HUF 363 after 2023 and 2024 earnings, respectively. Despite themassive share price appreciation seen in 2023, ANY remains attractive, offering acompelling total return upside potential of 38%, as we lift our 12-m ex-div TP to 4,015HUF/sh. We reiterate our Buy recommendation ANY decided to differ from its long-term strategy...

Gabor Bukta
  • Gabor Bukta

One-offs distorted FY results, outlook shows resilience

Waberer’s reported its Q4/23 results on Thursday AMC, where the Company achieved aquarterly EBIT of EUR 9.3mn, corresponding to a decrease of 23% YoY. Net incomecame in at EUR 3.7mn, down 66% YoY driven by (1) the lower industrial output inEurope; (2) a massive increase in tax liabilities booked in Q4 and (3) the high baseperiod after the restatement of last year’s results. For the full year, Waberer’s reported a net income of EUR 29.7mn, an increase of EUR10.4mn or +54% YoY and EBIT of EUR 42....

Mihaly Gajda
  • Mihaly Gajda

Challenging Transformation Journey Amid Energy Security and Geopolitic...

Our target price for OMV is EUR 48.1, indicating a 27% upside potential, inclusive of the announced EUR 5.05 dividend. For MOL, we propose a target price of HUF 3,245, suggesting an 18% upside potential, factoring in an estimated dividend of HUF 250. We recommend 'Buy' for OMV and 'Accumulate' for MOL. In our opinion OMV holds a smaller risk. Despite challenges in the petrochemical sector, the company has achieved greater success with its international E&P portfolio, boasts more efficient refini...

Gabor Bukta
  • Gabor Bukta

Excellent year behind and more promising ahead

ANY posted its Q4 report on Friday, AMC. ANY reported net revenues of HUF 55.5bnfor 2023, representing a 28% increase compared to the last year. Net income almostdoubled (+90% YoY), reaching HUF 4.3bn (EPS of HUF 298) in the full year. Followingthe 2023 preliminary report, we must revisit our estimates, hence we put ourrecommendation under review. Our existing forecast looks outdated as we estimatednet sales of HUF 54.7bn for 2024 in August 2023. We believe that ANY's net sales canshow double-di...

Gabor Bukta
  • Gabor Bukta

Strong revenues but DPS may disappoint

OTP’s reported net income came to HUF 132.6 bln, while adjusted net income was atHUF 230.0 bln in the 4th quarter. This is 4% ahead of the market consensus of HUF221.3 bln while the figure remained below our estimate of HUF 271 bln (our net profitestimate was HUF 203 bln). Lower results stemmed from a (1) miss in the other income line (2) higher provisioning and (3) badwill release at Ipoteka given the weakerresults from the segment. Also, the Romanian loss on sale as well as the interest rateca...

Mate Somlai-Kiss
  • Mate Somlai-Kiss

Positioning for the auto sector recovery

This is a transfer of coverage, and we reviewed our model and earningsforecasts. We are convinced that AutoWallis will continue its outstandinggrowth story, with estimated FY24 revenues of HUF 398 bn, an EBITDA ofHUF19.7 bn, and an EPS of HUF 22.53. Based on our 2024 earningsestimates, AutoWallis is trading at an EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples of 5.7xand 4.9x, respectively, that we think is a very pleasing valuation for thecompany. We set our 12-m TP at HUF 218 per share, implying a 71%upside poten...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong
  • Hai Thanh Le Phuong

Neutral results, Bank targets EUR 500 mln share buyback

Erste’s net income came to EUR 688 mln in Q4, down by 16% q-o-q and up by 34% y-o-y while the figure came 3% ahead of consensus and slightly below our estimate. The market beat came from provisioning mainly as the Bank released FLI provisions in the amount of EUR 200 mln in the Other Austria Segment. Risk cost was allocated mainly at savings banks due to SME and medium-sized real estate projects. NII declined 3% q-o-q due to moderately rising deposit pass-through rates, interest rate caps in ...

Gabor Bukta
  • Gabor Bukta

Impressive guidance in line with our estimates

Richter posted clean EBIT of HUF 59.1bn (+18% YoY) on net sales of HUF 203.2bn(-9% YoY) for Q4/23. Clean EBIT was 36% ahead of the consensus estimate of HUF43.5bn and our estimate of HUF 43.4bn, respectively, while net revenue beatestimate significantly. As a result, clean EBIT (incl. extra taxes) margin stood at29.2% compared to our estimate of 23.7%.  

Gabor Bukta
  • Gabor Bukta

CIG Pannonia reported solid results for ‘23

CIG Pannonia (Pannonia) reported a PAT of HUF 1.51bn for Q4/23 compared to HUF0.95bn in Q4/22 (+59% YoY) and HUF 0.77bn in Q3/23 (+96% QoQ). Othercomprehensive income including the changes in the fair value of other financialassets (OPUS shares and government securities) valued at fair value was HUF 1.77bncompared to HUF 1.17bn in Q4/22. Total comprehensive income came in at HUF2.2bn in Q4/23, up from HUF 1.75bn in Q4/22.

Gabor Bukta
  • Gabor Bukta

Massive payout after '23 and impressive guidance for '24

MTEL reported a strong set of results on Thursday noon, as they reported higher-thanexpected revenues and net profit for Q4 and the full year of 2023. MTEL proposed a DPSof HUF 44.7 and announced a SBB program of up to HUF 24bn. Adj. net profit is seen atHUF 130bn in 2024, well ahead of consensus, suggesting a total shareholderremuneration of HUF 91bn calculated at a 70% POR after 2024 earnings. Group revenues increased by 15.1% YoY in Q4/23 or 13.8% QoQ, driven by strong demandfor mobile data ...

Mihaly Gajda
  • Mihaly Gajda

MOL exceeded market consensus expectations in Q4

MOL demonstrated resilience, achieving an impressive Clean CCS EBITDA of HUF 354 bn, a 19% decrease Y-o-Y yet a 3% increase Q-o-Q. This result surpassed market expectations by 13%. The company's market outperformance was driven by strong operational performance in the Upstream segment, robust refining operations, and a recovering petrochemical market.

Hai Thanh Le Phuong
  • Hai Thanh Le Phuong

Model update after Q4 earnings

We updated our model due to better 2023 results, better NII and risk cost outlook. While the Romanian reference rate is set to decline to below 6% this year, but NII could be higher compared to 2023 on stellar volumes and repricing could be slower on the asset side. Asset quality should stay benign but positive contribution to earnings is unlikely to be sustainable thus we project it to be 32bps and 47bps for 2024 and 2025, respectively. We also included the turnover tax for the 2024-2026 p...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong
  • Hai Thanh Le Phuong

Sound Q4 results but dividend somewhat disappoints

BRD’s reported net income came to RON 425 mln in the fourth quarter, down by 8% q-o-q due to seasonally higher costs (+13% q-o-q) and lower Net F&C. NII was up by 5% quarterly thanks to lending volumes counterbalanced by partially higher amount of deposits thus this was the reason of stalling NIM at 3.5%. Operating expenses were also up by 13% q-o-q partially due to seasonality and 8% y-o-y. Amongst expense lines besides PEREX, other operating expenses also increased substantially (+15% y-o-...

Mihaly Gajda
  • Mihaly Gajda

Petrom delivers consensus expectations in Q4 2023

In Q4 2023, the company reported a clean CCS-based operating profit of RON2,243 mn, marking a 9% increase YoY and exceeding market consensus by 1%. The company has raised its base dividend payment by 10% YoY, from RON 0.038per share to RON 0.0413 per share. Additionally, a special dividend is anticipatedto be announced later in 2024.

Mihaly Gajda
  • Mihaly Gajda

OMV exceeded consensus expectations in Q4 2023

OMV reported a clean CCS-based operating result of EUR 1,432 mn, marking a -32% decrease YoY and a slight 7% increase QoQ. This result is also marginallyabove the consensus estimate by 7%. The primary factors contributing to thisperformance include challenges in the European petrochemical industry,normalizing refinery margins, and a reduction in hydrocarbon prices from 2022levels. OMV has elected to distribute a dividend of EUR 5.05 per share, consistent withthe previous year's payout. The base...

Gabor Bukta
  • Gabor Bukta

More than a single drug company

This is a transfer of coverage as after 30 years of equity research at ConcordeSecurities, Attila Vago left the Company. In line with our previous approach, we are still eager to evaluate Richter with a sum-of-thepartsmethod. We find this very important in case of Richter, as it consists of four wellseparated segments with different prospects and profitability. These are the Women’sHealthcare (WHC), the Neuropsychiatry (CNS or central nervous system), theBiotechnology (BIO) and the General Medi...

Gabor Bukta
  • Gabor Bukta

FY guidance remained unchanged despite weak Q3

Wizz Air’s fiscal Q3 report was disappointing as revenue, EBITDA and net income missed our estimates. Having said that, Wizz Air made no change to the GTF engine removal projections and continue to expect a total of around 40 aircraft grounded at the end of March. Wizz Air continue to guide a net income for fiscal 2024 in the range of between EUR 350-400mn, supported by positive trading, higher utilization of operational fleet, one-off benefits from OEM cost protection and credits from deferre...

Gabor Bukta
  • Gabor Bukta

Model update – delivering guidance is a bit challenging

We slightly cut our target price from 32.0 GBP/sh to 31.0 GBP/sh, however, we remain BUY-rated on the stock. This reflects the weaker than earlier expected fiscal Q3 results, which we expect to be disappointing.  Wizz Air will report its fiscal Q3 earnings on the 25th of January, BMO. We significantly cut our estimates for the quarter ended on the 31st of December, driven by the Middle East tension and operational hiccups. Softening demand, which we expect, could also raise concerns among inves...

Gabor Bukta
  • Gabor Bukta

CIG Pannonia shows resilience in Q3/23 despite one-offs

CIG Pannonia (Pannonia or the insurer) reported HUF 772mn after tax profit for Q3/23 compared to HUF 938mn in Q3/22. Other comprehensive income including the changes in the fair value of other financial assets (OPUS shares and government securities) valued at fair value was HUF -191mn compared to a loss of HUF 1.33bn in Q3/22. Total comprehensive income came in at HUF 2.34bn in Q3/23 as against a slight loss of HUF 44mn in Q3/22. Pannonia’s capital position has constantly been stable, with a cap...

Gabor Bukta
  • Gabor Bukta

Q1-Q3/23 results exceeded FY22 earnings

AutoWallis posted revenues of HUF 283bn in 9M/23 (+36% YoY), exceeding the total sales of FY22 (HUF 270 bn). The company sold nearly 35ths vehicles during the period (+46% YoY), all the while export markets grew by 13%, offset by the 3.2% decrease in the Hungarian market. Q3 sales came in at HUF 88.6 bn, representing an increase of 14% YoY and a decrease of -5.9% QoQ. Export sales accounted for 58% of the total. 9M/23 EBITDA rose by 35% YoY to HUF 17.5bn, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 6.2%...

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