reports
- David Szonyi
- Peter Virovacz
- Coco Zhang
- James Knightley
North America Construction Outlook: Politics and policy rates test the...
After weathering the 2023 banking stresses and ongoing high interest rate environment, 2024 and beyond is likely to be more challenging. Financing conditions remain restrictive, and political uncertainty is on the rise with US and Mexican Presidential elections. High government deficits further limit the scope for support for the sector
- Coco Zhang
- James Knightley
North America Construction Outlook: Politics and policy rates test the...
After weathering the 2023 banking stresses and ongoing high interest rate environment, 2024 and beyond is likely to be more challenging. Financing conditions remain restrictive, and political uncertainty is on the rise with US and Mexican Presidential elections. High government deficits further limit the scope for support for the sector
- Ewa Manthey
- Lynn Song
- Rebecca Byrne
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/AIB capital, Dutch liquidity rules, DZ Hyp new covered, Ta...
AIB manages its Tier 1 stack by replacing its AT1 early. Dutch government calls for stricter liquidity rules. DZ Hyp returns to the market with an 8.1yr mortgage covered. Tatra Banka adds a bit to the lagging ESG preferred senior print. Austria launches its direct competitor to bank household deposits
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/AIB capital, Dutch liquidity rules, DZ Hyp new covered, Ta...
AIB manages its Tier 1 stack by replacing its AT1 early. Dutch government calls for stricter liquidity rules. DZ Hyp returns to the market with an 8.1yr mortgage covered. Tatra Banka adds a bit to the lagging ESG preferred senior print. Austria launches its direct competitor to bank household deposits
- Adam Antoniak
- Rafal Benecki
Poland's sluggish recovery continues as consumption sees a gradual reb...
Data from Polish industry and construction saw a serious surprise to the downside in March, and retail sales growth was less spectacular than we had expected. We're revising our first quarter GDP forecast down to 1.5% YoY from 2.3% previously, but we still see 3% economic growth in 2024 on the back of a continued improvement in household consumption
- Bert Colijn
Eurozone PMI signals a pickup in growth
The PMI increased from 50.3 to 51.4 in April, suggesting that the eurozone economy is finally leaving stagnation and returning to growth at the start of the second quarter. Inflationary pressures remain for the service sector but don't expect this to deter the ECB from cutting rates
- Ewa Manthey
- Warren Patterson
The Commodities Feed: Middle East tensions ease
The oil market traded little changed in the early trading session today as part of a broader risk-off move across markets. Meanwhile, the LME aluminium tom-next spread surged to the highest level since May 2021, with on-warrant stocks falling to record lows sending supply jitters to the market
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/Bund future
No signs of a bottom in the weekly chart with a lower high and low last week. Prices closed 146bp lower at 131.04 in combination with a new low within this year's corrective phase at 130.83. Nevertheless, we are still not bearish here and recommend our view to Buy on weakness in expecting the development of a higher bottom. The downside potential is limited from here with solid support coming in between the horizontal line around 130.70 and the former upper end of the falling trend channel aroun...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ahold Delhaize: Release of 1Q24 company-compiled consensus. AkzoNobel: Decent 1Q24 with 4% beat, FY guidance reiterated. Allfunds Group plc: On the verge. Barco: Weak 1Q24, more conservative wording on guidance. DWS: 1Q24 preview. Flow Traders: No respite in March. IMCD: Last hurdle before growth. Randstad: 1Q24 slight miss vs consensus, 2Q24 outlook below due to weak gross margin. TKH Group: Preview – a weak 1Q expected Vår Energi: Nice start to the year
- Marine Leleux
Taxonomy Disclosures: A slow start, but a start nonetheless
For the first time, banks disclosed their Taxonomy alignment and Green Asset Ratio alongside their Taxonomy eligibility. The GAR average lies just over 3%, far below the expected 10%, while the eligibility rate increased by 5pp since last year to reach 35%. Several factors explain these very low results including data gaps and calculation differences
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Sterling makes its move
Sterling has seen some noticeable underperformance after dovish comments from MPC internal members. We've also just had some comments from the ECB hinting that its policy moves may not be as independent of the Fed after all. Today, we'll be focusing on any modest improvement in the eurozone PMIs. Over in Hungary, a slower pace of easing is expected
- Lynn Song
- Nicky Mapa
- Rob Carnell
- Benjamin Schroeder
- Michiel Tukker
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Rates Spark: Diverging ECB views increases uncertainty
ECB comments on the path beyond June are become more dispersed, with the hawks warning it is premature to discuss cuts beyond June, while some doves now flag more than 100bp of cuts as a possibility. To us this implies the outlook beyond June is less anchored overall, meaning it could be more prone to correct higher near-term if US rates push on upwards
- Chris Turner
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
Bank of England set to cut rates before the Fed as officials turn dovi...
The Bank of England is right to draw a distinction between the UK and US inflation outlook, and we expect the first rate cut to be in August or maybe even June. Sterling could come under greater pressure, but we think this is less of a concern for the BoE now than it was in 2022 or 2023
- Chris Turner
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
Bank of England set to cut rates before the Fed as officials turn dovi...
The Bank of England is right to draw a distinction between the UK and US inflation outlook, and we expect the first rate cut to be in August or maybe even June. Sterling could come under greater pressure, but we think this is less of a concern for the BoE now than it was in 2022 or 2023
- Chris Turner
- James Smith
- Michiel Tukker
Bank of England set to cut rates before the Fed as officials turn dovi...
The Bank of England is right to draw a distinction between the UK and US inflation outlook, and we expect the first rate cut to be in August or maybe even June. Sterling could come under greater pressure, but we think this is less of a concern for the BoE now than it was in 2022 or 2023
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Timothy Rahill
Bite Size Strategy/Weakness offers pickup in credit
There was weakness in credit markets early last week, with a weaker macro tone as spreads came off the tight levels and flows were negative with outflows of 0.1% of AuM. Supply was still active last week, with €6bn in corporate supply and €8bn in financial supply (€5.5bn in covered bonds and €2bn in bank senior bonds). Despite the weaker sentiment, new issues still saw strong demand and very low NIPs.
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