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Paul de Froment ... (+3)
  • Paul de Froment
  • Sebastián Marroquin Mérida
  • Thomas Mordelle

Fastned: First time EBITDA positive

Fastned published its FY2023 annual report this morning. As stated during the last trading update, sales came in at EUR60.5m and the gross margin reached 74% in 2023. The company reported a positive EBITDA for the first time, of EUR4.6m (-25% vs cons. of EUR6.2m, and +48% vs. BGe EUR3.1m). As a rem

Paul de Froment ... (+3)
  • Paul de Froment
  • Sebastián Marroquin Mérida
  • Thomas Mordelle

Lhyfe: unsurprising FY23 results, revised 2024-2026 outlook

Lhyfe has announced FY23 results and provided indications for FY24 revenue guidance. Whereas FY23 revenue was already communicated at EUR1.3m (+30% vs cons. at EUR1m), Lhyfe has reported a lower than expected EBITDA loss at EUR28.1m (9% ahead of cons. at -EUR31.0m), even with continued structuring

Paul de Froment ... (+3)
  • Paul de Froment
  • Sebastián Marroquin Mérida
  • Thomas Mordelle

Waga Energy: Successful EUR52m raise

Last week, Waga Energy announced a successful EUR52m capital increase. This capital increase will allow the company to fund project investments and pre-manufacture of equipments. As such, Waga Energy should be able to accelerate the deployment of new projects, capitalising on its international expa

Maria Vara
  • Maria Vara

Medios: the Specialty Pharma German leader to expand horizons in Europ...

We re-initiate coverage of Medios with a BUY recommendation and a EUR 40 PT (~140% upside). As a unique player in the German Specialty Pharma, Medios has established a competitive geographical coverage through its wholesaler business, and a robust Patient-Specific Therapies portfolio serving 80% of

Cedric Rossi
  • Cedric Rossi

H&M: Q1 margin trajectory more appealing than sales trends

Q1 2024 results unveiled yesterday by H&M showed impressive profit momentum, while March sales (+2% FX-n) improved sequentially vs. Q1 (-2% FX-n), albeit well below the pace of growth at Inditex. Although we increase our FY24 estimates by 5% following these stronger-than-expected Q1 profits, we

Cedric Rossi
  • Cedric Rossi

Mister Spex: slow but steady margin improvement

Cautious FY24 sales guidance is explained by a persistently tough retail environment in Germany and key marketing initiatives set to drive sales growth in H2 2024. On a positive note, the FY24 aEBITDA outlook implies another sequential improvement in margins, again mainly driven by GM-expansion. Po

Cedric Rossi
  • Cedric Rossi

Mister Spex: FY23 results in line and focus on sustainable growth for ...

Final FY23 results released this morning are broadly in line with pre-announced numbers on 31st January: with FY23 sales up 6% to EUR223 driven by market share gains in Germany (+10% vs. market at +3%) and FY23 aEBITDA close to EUR1m, marking a EUR9m improvement vs. PY. Pending positive results fro

Antoine Lebourgeois ... (+2)
  • Antoine Lebourgeois
  • Paul Charpentier

Vantiva: weathering storms, synergies in sight

Vantiva has delivered FY23 results in line with Q3 revised guidance, with increased margins partially offsetting revenue headwinds in a sluggish market. The FY24e outlook remains cautious, although FY24e guidance for stable adj. EBITDA and increasing FCF, despite an expected decline in revenues, sh

Cedric Rossi
  • Cedric Rossi

Moncler: slaloming between brand elevation strategy and market expecta...

Whereas we expect Moncler to be one of the fastest-growing brands in Q1 2024, as evidenced by +20% FX-n growth in its DTC channel, the overall performance (+12% FX-n) is set to remain hampered by the wholesale channel due to conversions (Moncler) and aggressive rationalisation (Stone Island). On th

Clement Genelot
  • Clement Genelot

MdM: model update

Post-FY publication, we have fine-tuned our model to better take into account: i) the full FY accounts, ii) some positive one-offs that boosted 2023 EBIT, iii) c.100 store conversions via an affiliation model rather than 75/25% via affiliation/franchise.Our DCF-valuation approach still leads to a E

Oscar Haffen Lamm
  • Oscar Haffen Lamm

VALNEVA: Initiates phase 1 trial of the Zika vaccine candidate

Valneva announced the initiation of the phase 1 trial of the Zika vaccine candidate (VLA1601), its 2nd generation adjuvanted inactivated vaccine, which will investigate its safety and immunogenicity. The phase 1 will enroll approx. 150 participants (18-49 years old) in the US who will receive a low

Cedric Rossi ... (+5)
  • Cedric Rossi
  • Clement Genelot
  • Loic Morvan
  • Paul Rouviere
  • Philippine Adam

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #22

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the favourite sub-sectors for short sellers post-earnings. Happy reading!

Paul de Froment ... (+3)
  • Paul de Froment
  • Sebastián Marroquin Mérida
  • Thomas Mordelle

Kempower: No reason to worry

Last week, Kempower published a profit warning for the Q1 2024, currently impacted by national strikes in Finland which are hampering deliveries to customers. As a result, Kempower decreased its Q1 2024 guidance and now expects Q1 revenue to be significantly below Q1 2023 (EUR55.8m) and negative op

Cedric Rossi
  • Cedric Rossi

US eyewear market: looking at a half-full glass for 2024

The 2023 holiday season proved to be a good vintage, as evidenced by stronger-than-expected Q4 revenue performances from our entire Optical sample. Yet, macro uncertainty and a lingering impact from wait-and-see customer behaviour in prescription prevented companies from delivering a more upbeat ou

Cedric Rossi
  • Cedric Rossi

NIKE: zone of turbulence not over yet

Initial investor optimism prompted by better-than-expected Q3 results was rapidly dampened by Nike's expectation of H1 FY25 revenue down LSD (CSSe: +5%) due to a transitioning of its product portfolio towards more newness and innovation. In our view, this transition period is hardly surprising howe

Oscar Haffen Lamm
  • Oscar Haffen Lamm

Valneva: Model Update

Post-FY23 earnings publication on the 20th March, we have updated our model with an unchanged BUY rating and PT at EUR 9. We adjusted our estimates for product sales taking into account the upgraded guidance for 2024 and the mid-term outlook provided by the company, namely i) Ixiaro guided continue

Clement Genelot
  • Clement Genelot

Carrefour: debunking the lease-management model

We have conducted a deep dive into a topic long considered opaque and underestimated: the lease-management model. After contributing to 46%e of 2018-23 French EBIT improvement, we believe Carrefour is doomed to pursue another six/seven-year journey of store conversions to outsource all loss-making

Paul de Froment ... (+3)
  • Paul de Froment
  • Sebastián Marroquin Mérida
  • Thomas Mordelle

Avantium: right on track

Avantium yesterday announced FY 2023 results with total income reaching EUR25.5m (+11% vs cons. expectations at EUR23.0m), supported by R&D Solutions and the first milestone payment from Origin Materials. While the EBITDA loss of EUR27.5m was slightly higher than expected (cons. at EUR25.5m, BG

Maria Vara
  • Maria Vara

ONWARD Medical: successfully raises EUR 20m, extends cash runway into ...

ONWARD Medical successfully secured a capital raise of EUR 20m in total gross proceeds, extending the cash runway into mid-2025 (vs. YE 2024). While the indicative initial capital raise amount was EUR 15m, the demand from institutional investors and French retail, along with the commitment of share

Cedric Rossi ... (+3)
  • Cedric Rossi
  • Clement Genelot
  • Gregory Ramirez

Claranova: a strong set of H1 numbers, FY24 guidance reiterated

Yesterday evening, Claranova reported H1 FY24 aEBITDA 3% above expectations, driven by improving profit trends in all three businesses. As such, H1 aEBITDA soared 58% to EUR27.5m, representing a 360bp-margin improvement to 9.1%, which was the profitability level of H1 FY21. Against this strong firs

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