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Martin Arnell
  • Martin Arnell

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Preparing for more action

We reiterate our BUY and SEK180 target price, and expect Q1 to show Kambi is on track to meet its 2024 revenue and EBIT guidance. The near-term outlook is positive in our opinion (key sports events like UEFA Euro 2024, and onboarding new key customers), and a new CEO should be announced soon. We have raised our 2024e EBIT by 3%, and expect more clarity on future potential buybacks (new framework to be put to the AGM).

Linus Sigurdson
  • Linus Sigurdson

The weekly navigator

Our key takeaways from this week are: 1) Kinnevik hosted a pre-silent call; we expect its unlisted NAV to be revalued upwards by ~3–4% in its Q1 report; and 2) we see outperformance potential in VC-oriented investment companies in 2024, and Kinnevik is one of our top picks.

Simen Aas
  • Simen Aas

Hennes & Mauritz (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - 10% EBIT-margin target in its ...

A strong start to 2024, and spring sales with solid gross margins, have boosted confidence in H&M’s near-term 10% EBIT margin target. We like the store-refurbishment acceleration too, supporting our view of it returning to store growth in 2025e. We reiterate our BUY, but have raised our target price to SEK200 (180) on higher forecasts.

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Reflections on dayrates ahead

As per our most recent sector updates, we believe deepwater datapoints could surprise on the upside in the comings months, potentially breaking the USD500k barrier after being rangebound at USD450k–490k for c12 months. Still, dayrate bifurcation among deepwater rigs is still there, but we are encouraged by the disciplined behaviour for tier-1 rigs. We see similar trends for harsh semis. Within the jackup segment, bifurcation between local and international contractors could be more pronounced as...

Emilie Krutnes Engen
  • Emilie Krutnes Engen

Carasent (Buy, TP: NOK25.00) - Q4 in line; room for margin surprise

We have trimmed our 2024e revenue by ~1% following the Confrere divestment, and while we have raised our 2024–2025e gross opex by 3%, we see room for further cost reductions if organic growth does not accelerate, implying upside risk to our underlying margin assumptions. We still expect earnings momentum from the current growth initiatives and cost discipline, and thus reiterate our BUY and NOK25 target price.

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Cadeler (Buy, TP: NOK72.00) - Progressing as planned

The H2 results were in line with the guidance, and the new 2024 EBITDA guidance of EUR105m–125m is supportive for the growth case in our opinion, and largely in line with consensus and as we expected. New cranes have been installed on the O-class vessels, and the newbuilds are progressing well, with the first vessel (Wind Peak) due for delivery in August, which could allow some short-term work ahead of the Sofia contract in 2025. We have made limited estimate revisions, and reiterate our BUY and...

Simen Aas
  • Simen Aas

Hennes & Mauritz (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Strong Q1

We consider this a positive report for H&M, including EBIT 53% above consensus, a reiterated 2024 EBIT margin target, and decent start to spring sales. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBIT to come up by 5%+ on the back of the Q1 report, and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Martin Arnell
  • Martin Arnell

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1700.00) - Q1e revenue of EUR500m

We reiterate our BUY and SEK1,700 target price ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:30 CET on 24 April). We see re-rating potential from e.g. stabilising Live revenue growth YOY (c25% YOY in Q1e at constant currency), confirmed by our proprietary tracker data, and an improving cash distribution story. Notable upcoming new Live game releases include ‘Lightning Storm’, which we believe is scheduled for late Q2.

Patrik Ling
  • Patrik Ling

Getinge (Hold, TP: SEK210.00) - More of the same

We expect Q1 revenues of cSEK7.7bn and an adj. EBITA margin of c9.8% – basically in line with consensus. Given the issues in Getinge, with packaging in ACT seemingly solved later than previously assumed, it is fair to assume the negative impact will continue into Q1 and Q2 at least. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK210 target price. The Q1 report is due at 08:00 CET on 22 April.

Patrik Ling
  • Patrik Ling

Arjo (Buy, TP: SEK60.00) - Steady as she goes

We expect broadly stable trends in Q1 versus recent quarters, and forecast decent underlying growth, with patient-handling and pressure sore prevention again facing some headwinds but service and rental still going strong. We also expect a small negative impact from Red Sea-related logistics issues, but not enough to alter the overall picture. We reiterate our BUY and SEK60 target price.

Johannes Grunselius
  • Johannes Grunselius

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK185.00) - From headwinds to tailwinds

We have made relatively small but positive revisions to our 2024–2025e earnings, which remain well above consensus. We continue to see plenty of value in SCA, as well as a good risk/reward, with evidence of better pulp markets and signs of improved pricing for the containerboard business and completed large investments generating significant incremental earnings for 2024–2025e. We reiterate our BUY but have raised our target price to SEK185 (180).

Patrik Ling
  • Patrik Ling

Alvotech (Buy, TP: USD21.00) - Strong fiscal 2024–2025 guidance

Alvotech reported fiscal Q4 2023 earnings and hosted a CMD late last week. These were broadly in line with our expectations, but also rather a non-event given the late reporting and developments that have taken place in Q1 (approval of AVT02 in the US), and approval of AVT04 in the US, expected in April. Guidance for 2024 (and 2025) was stronger than we had expected. Overall, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to USD21 (19).

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Novonesis - Initiation of coverage - All eyes on execution

We initiate coverage of the merged entity (Novozymes and Chr Hansen) with a HOLD and DKK440 target price. We view the 2024 guidance as conservative (5–7% organic growth, c35% adj. EBITDA margin), with the organic growth guidance midpoint below the targeted 6–8% CAGR for 2023–2025 and the adj. EBITDA margin guidance c2% below the 2025 target. We note the 2025 guidance is unchanged, and find the low end of the organic growth target more realistic. We expect investor focus ahead of the CMD on 18 Ju...

Mads Brinkmann Andersen
  • Mads Brinkmann Andersen

ISS (Buy, TP: DKK170.00) - Legal risks more than priced in

Looking at the ongoing arbitration case against Deutsche Telekom (DTAG), we find the risks more balanced than is currently reflected in the share price (which appears to be pricing in a worst-case scenario). Our conversations with legal experts have reassured us that ISS has a good, albeit not clear-cut case, and we consider a settlement the most likely outcome. We reiterate our BUY and DKK171 target price.

Johannes Grunselius
  • Johannes Grunselius

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR44.00) - Earnings tailwind

Our 2024 forecasts remain well above consensus, and with much higher pulp prices directly benefiting UPM’s growing pulp business and evidence that volumes for its key businesses are increasing, we expect meaningful positive consensus revisions on the Q1 report. We have made relatively few changes to our optimistic earnings scenario. The stock remains our sector top pick, and we reiterate our BUY and EUR44 target price.

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Stolt-Nielsen (Buy, TP: NOK500.00) - Multiples expansion warranted

We find the stock attractively priced at a 2024–2025e average EV/EBITDA of 3.9x and P/E of 5.6x, versus the tanker peer group at 4.2x and 5.9x, respectively. We estimate a 2024–2026 average earnings yield of 18% and believe the diversified earnings, with Tankers constituting c65% of our 2024–2026e EBIT, should support multiples expansion. We reiterate our BUY and NOK500 target price.

Miika Ihamaki
  • Miika Ihamaki

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR17.00) - Q4 fine overall

We looked for slightly more LFL growth (sales and visits), but DollarStore profitability was very strong. Financing costs also burdened EPS more than we expected. With an attractive valuation and optimistic 2024 demand outlook, we reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to EUR17.0 (17.5).

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