Today's data releases were a bit mixed with weaker-than-expected IP and stronger-than-expected retail sales. Tokyo inflation hasn't changed much at above the 2% level. We believe that the Bank of Japan will pay more attention to the improvement in retail sales and sticky inflation data than to weak IP and labour results driven by an idiosyncratic factor
EnBW[de] reported very strong YE23 earnings. The German utility's business model evolves around three pillars: smart infrastructure (sale of gas and power, telecom activities, storage and E-mobility), System Critical Infrastructure (transmission and distribution grids) and Sustainable Generation infrastructure (heating, trading, conventional and renewable energy generation). EnBW's 2023 EBITDA growth (+60% vs 2022) was mainly driven by the company's conventional electricity generation and tradin...
Our latest update does not bring material changes to our main views. Yet we highlight the overdue fiscal correction and persistent inflation as reasons for the National Bank of Romania to take its rate-cutting cycle slowly. Growth-wise, EU funds should continue to boost public investments, while private consumption will turn more supportive
• Prices are hovering around the flat EMA-40 line at the 111 level and prices must close above the horizontal resistance area 112 9/64-113 13/64 to confirm that prices have bottomed, followed by further upside. Until then, we cannot rule out a decline towards lower prices. A weekly close below the February low at 109 18/64 would be bearish, suggesting we could see a retest of last year's low around the 105 24/68 level. Solid longer-term horizontal support in the monthly chart comes in between 1...
Banks rely a tad more on the shorter ECB funding operations to absorb the TLTRO redemptions. Preferred senior bond supply sees a large drop in sustainable issuances. Playing the liability structure-preferred senior less enticing
Overall this is a positive reading, marking an improvement among manufacturers and a surprising resilience among builders. Consumers are taking a breather, showing tentative concerns about future unemployment for the first time in months
Banks rely a tad more on the shorter ECB funding operations to absorb the TLTRO redemptions. Preferred senior bond supply sees a large drop in sustainable issuances. Playing the liability structure-preferred senior less enticing
Breaking above the upper end of the falling trend channel: Prices are at last rising again after almost consolidating during the past four months, with prices hovering around the flat longer-term moving average lines. The EMA-200 line around US$79.50/bbl and the EMA-40 line at US$82.50/bbl.
After some declines in 2023 on the back of tightening policy, both money growth and bank lending have started to increase again ever so slightly. For the European Central Bank, this shows that at the current pace of lending, investment will remain very muted
A short-term top should be close at hand. The weekly chart made a new low within this year's correction at 131.54, but closed 118bp higher at 133.12. However, as long as prices are not showing a weekly close above the EMA-40 line, this week at 133.72, we should expect lower prices. Solid support in the weekly chart comes in at the former upper end of the 15-month falling trend channel and horizontal line, both around the 130.70 level. A higher bottom around this support area should be followed ...
It has been a good night for the dollar. One of the Fed's most influential voices, Christopher Waller, delivered a mildly hawkish speech - firming up the view that the Fed will be arriving late to the rate cut party. At the same time, the S&P rating agency reaffirmed the US sovereign rating at AA+ with a stable outlook. Low FX volatility also dominates
Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.
Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.
Covered bonds kept on underperforming on the bank liability structure in the first quarter of this year. Following the better performance in preferred senior, some preferred senior curves now trade close to covered bonds. However, we still like preferred senior debt in Austria and France. Bail-in senior spreads look relatively compressed, but we see value in selected Dutch and German bail-in senior bonds.
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