reports
- Brendan Furlong
GoPro: Positive Alt Data for Black Friday and Quarter to Date
Summary: Analyzing Eagle Edge web crawled data we show metrics for GoPro’s market share and pricing quarter to date and over the Black Friday weekend. GoPro has gained significant share of bestsellers, yet promotional activity does not appear to be aggressive Eagle Alpha Insight Online retail metrics show GoPro regaining share with relatively benign discounting. Combined, the data is positive. Promotional activity does not appear to be as bad as perceived from managements recent comments.
- Brendan Furlong
Apple: Online Interest in New iPhone Models Lagging 2017 Models
Summary Consumer search interest in the latest iPhones has collapsed when compared to last years phones. Eagle Alpha’s Search Signal for Apple continues to show weak momentum. Twitter conversation surrounding the new iPhones is also in sharp decline and is indicating higher consumer interest in the older iPhone X than the newer models. Eagle Alpha Insight Consumer interest in the latest iPhone models remains low. This is likely to be reflected in unit sales in the coming quarters. Interest ...
- Brendan Furlong
HPQ: Data Indicates Stable Demand and Fundamentals
Summary: Estimated share of bestsellers saw some minor pressure in the quarter. Share pressure was less than seen in FYQ3. ASP trends were relatively positive. Eagle Alpha’s Search Signal indicator suggests stable consumer demand for HP products. Eagle Alpha Insight Our data indicates HP had a mixed performance in FYQ4’18. Stable consumer demand and pricing is offset by a slightly lower share of bestsellers. This implies the company will report similar to the July quarter.
- Brendan Furlong
Footlocker: Negative Consumer Demand Signal Persists
Summary: Eagle Alpha’s Search Signal for Foot Locker has shown weakness throughout 2018. Weakness in the signal has persisted into the October quarter. The 1 month and 3 MMA signals have continued on a downtrend. Eagle Alpha Insight: The persistent weakness seen in the signal for Foot Locker implies that sales metrics are at risk. The signal has moved earlier than sales in the past, so the current trend may get reflected in company guidance.
Lowe’s: Weak Consumer Search Trends in October Quarter
Summary: After rebounding slightly from weakness in the April quarter, Eagle Alpha’s Search Signal for Lowe’s has turned lower. Over the past three months the one month and three month signals have seen a sharp decline. Eagle Alpha Insight: Search Signals is implying that consumer demand for Lowe’s has weakened and puts sales growth metrics at risk. The signal has moved earlier than sales in the past, so the current trend may get reflected in company guidance.
- Brendan Furlong
Dick’s: Consensus Estimates Appear Too Pessimistic
Summary: Eagle Alpha’s Search Signal for Dick’s had shown weakness throughout the early part of 2018. Since the July quarter the one month and three month signals have rebounded strongly, a positive sign for end demand. Eagle Alpha Insight: Search Signals is implying that consumer demand for Dick’s has rebounded, a positive for sales growth metrics. The signal has moved earlier than sales in the past, so the current trend may get reflected in company guidance.
- Brendan Furlong
Fitbit: Alt Data Points to Weak Fundamentals
Summary: Analyzing Eagle Edge web crawled data we show metrics for Fitbit tracker market share and pricing. ASP’s were weak in the quarter and share of bestsellers remains under pressure. Google search data for Fitbit has rolled over after showing some strength in early 2018. Eagle Alpha Insight Online retail metrics show a weak performance in Q3’18 and demand indicators are also in decline. Both sets of data paint a weak fundamental picture for Fitbit in coming quarters.
- Brendan Furlong
GoPro: Online Pricing Trends a Positive for September Quarter
Summary: Analyzing Eagle Edge web crawled data we show metrics for GoPro’s market share and pricing. ASP remains strong in the quarter but share of bestsellers declined sequentially. Google search data for GoPro has been improving since Q4’17. Eagle Alpha Insight Online retail metrics show a mixed performance in Q3’18 and demand indicators have leveled off. With positive end demand and pricing, GoPro fundamentals should be positive for the quarter.
- Brendan Furlong
QSR: Upward Inflection in Consumer Demand Signal
Summary: Eagle Alpha’s Search Signal for Restaurant Brands had been in decline since late 2017. Over the past three months the signal has reversed sharply and is indicating positive consumer demand trends in coming quarters. Eagle Alpha Insight: Search Signals is indicating that consumer demand for Restaurant Brands is improving. This is positive for revenue growth. The signal has moved earlier than sales in the past, so the current trend may get reflected in company guidance.
- Brendan Furlong
Tapestry: Search Data Points to Fading Demand Trends
Summary: After holding steady through the first half of 2018, Eagle Alpha’s Search Signal for Tapestry has turned lower. Over the past three months the one month and three month signals have seen a sharp decline. Eagle Alpha Insight: Search Signals is implying that consumer demand for Tapestry has weakened and puts revenue growth at risk. The signal has moved earlier than sales in the past, so the current trend may get reflected in company guidance.
- Brendan Furlong
Apple: Data Points to Potential Pressure on Growth
Summary Eagle Alpha’s Search Signal for Apple has deteriorated significantly in recent months. This has implications for iPhone and other products. Confirming this trend is weakness in the volume of Twitter mentions related to the last two versions of the iPhone. Both signals are very weak in what should be a seasonally strong period. Eagle Alpha Insight Weakness in consumer interest for the latest iPhone implies a lack of demand. This is likely to be reflected in unit sales of the latest d...
- Brendan Furlong
Burberry: Consumer Search Indicates Weakening Demand
After holding steady through the first half of 2018, Eagle Alpha’s Search Signal for Burberry Group has turned lower. Over the past six months the one month and three month signals have been in steady decline. Eagle Alpha Insight: Search Signals is implying that consumer demand for Burberry Group has weakened and puts same store sales at risk. The signal has moved earlier than sales in the past, so the current trend may get reflected in company guidance.
- Brendan Furlong
Sportswear: Alternative Data Favors Nike Over Adidas
Analysis of online search data and conversation on sneaker websites is pointing to an ongoing recovery in consumer attitude for Nike. In contrast Adidas appears to be losing relative share of consumer interest compared to Nike. Eagle Alpha Insight: Eagle Alpha analysis of two sets of data on consumer interest in sportswear and footwear is pointing to stronger consumer demand trends for Nike compared to Adidas. This is likely to be reflected in fundamentals in coming quarters.
- Ronan Crosson
Apple: Alternative Data Shows Lack of Enthusiasm for New iPhones
Tracking online search and conversations points to weaker consumer interest in the latest iPhone devices compared to predecessors. This is true in global online search, as well as online conversations in North America, Europe and China. However, there is evidence of a positive bias towards premium products which could support ASPs. Eagle Alpha Insight Weakness in demand indicators in the week after launch for Apple’s latest iPhone range could foretell weaker unit demand for the devices through...
- Brendan Furlong
AEO/ANF: Jeans and Aerie Trending Positively on Social Media
Eagle Alpha’s Web Queries, a tool to measure social media mentions and sentiment, is showing positive seasonal trends for both AEO and ANF. Recent trends in jeans are more positive for American Eagle. Strength in the Aerie brand sustains recent momentum. Eagle Alpha Insight: Online conversation surrounding both ANF and AEO has picked up on a seasonal basis across all products. Conversation for AEO is relatively stronger than ANF due to strong trends in jeans and momentum in Aerie.
- Brendan Furlong
Cracker Barrel: Strong Inflection In Search Interest
Summary: Eagle Alpha’s Search Signal for Cracker Barrel is inflecting strongly to the upside. Both the one month and three month signals are up sharply in the quarter. Consumer interest in the brand appears to be robust. Eagle Alpha Insight: Search Signals is implying that consumer demand for Cracker Barrel has strengthened and implies upside to same store sales. The signal has moved earlier than sales in the past, so the current trend may get reflected in company guidance.
- Brendan Furlong
L Brands: Positive Consumer Demand Signal in The July Quarter
Summary: Eagle Alpha’s Search Signal for L Brands is up strongly in the July quarter. The one month and three month index are both inflecting upwards. Strength in the index has positive implications for consumer demand in the quarter. Eagle Alpha Insight: Search Signals is implying that consumer demand for L Brands is improving and is a positive sign for same store sales. The signal has moved earlier than sales in the past, so the current trend may be reflected in the quarter or in compa...
- Brendan Furlong
Foot Locker: Consumer Demand Stalling Again
Summary: Eagle Alpha’s Search Signal for Foot Locker has turned lower. Both the one month and three month signals have declined sharply in the quarter. With the index rolling over, consumer demand trends appear to be stalling . Eagle Alpha Insight: Search Signals is implying that consumer demand for Foot Locker has weakened and puts same store sales at risk. The signal has moved earlier than sales in the past, so the current trend may get reflected in company guidance.
- Brendan Furlong
HPQ: Online Data Signals A Mixed Quarter
Summary: Web crawled data points to a mixed quarter for HP. Estimated share of bestsellers saw some pressure in the quarter while ASP trends held firm. Eagle Alpha’s Search Signal indicator, based on Google Search data, suggests stable consumer demand for HP products. Eagle Alpha Insight Our data indicates HP had a mixed performance in FYQ3’18. Positive ASP trends are offset by weakness in share of bestsellers which could prove a headwind to longer term revenue growth. Consumer end demand ...
- Brendan Furlong
Gap Inc: Online Content and Sentiment Positive Across Brands
Summary: Eagle Alpha’s Web Queries, a tool to measure online content and social media mentions and sentiment is showing generally positive dynamics across brands for The Gap. Analysis of data from Web Queries largely supports positive longer term fundamentals for the company. Eagle Alpha Insight Online conversation is generally positive across brands with improving trends in Banana Republic and Old Navy. Gap remains relatively stable, which should allow the company to work through recent ope...
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