Lockout Rally in Full Swing Continuing the trend from last week's U.S. Macro Vision (4/29/25), we are seeing more and more signs that lead us to believe the S&P 500 (SPX) made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which is where we initially discussed in our 4/8/25 Compass to look for a local bottom to develop. As a result, we have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we noted that the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support, a potential bounce spot and a level to trade long against. With t...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
MSCI Emerging Markets at 6+ Month Resistance The MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency) and EEM-US (USD) are trading within 6+ month consolidations following uptrend violations in early-April. Resistance is at $45.50-$46.50 and support is at $39 on EEM-US. The near-term trend remains bullish, but both are approaching multi-month resistances, making this a logical spot for a pause or pullback -- be selective. A sustained breakout above $46.50 on EEM-US would be quite bullish, and would ...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
STRATEGY Our intermediate-term outlook remains cautious, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. At the same time, we are starting to see several signs that the S&P 500 may have made a major bottom at 4800-4820, and we have been short-term bullish since last week's Compass (4/22/25), at the time noting that the “SPX is now testing 5110-5120 support, a potential bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.” We also discussed in last week's Compass that there have been substantial t...
Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. We will remain cautious and we will continue to favor defensives as long as the S&P 500 is below its 200-day MA (currently 5750) or 5785 level. There have been substantial trading opportunities in both directions, and we expect that to continue; we discussed in our 4/8/25 Compass that a logic...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in our 4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments. A historic selloff ensued. We then discussed last week (4/8/25 Compass) ho...
Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785 Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in our 4/1/25 Compass how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments which led us to believe a break below 5500 and the potential for a prolonged downturn was likely. A historic selloff ensued. ...
Local Bottom With Potential to be a Major Bottom Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. All that changed as of our 3/31/25 ETF Pathfinder, when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments. It all led us to believe a break below 5500 and the potential for a prolonged downturn was increasingly likely. A historic selloff ensued. We did get positive trade news and some accommodative comment...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments. It all led us to believe a break below 5500 on SPX and $115 on ACWI-US was increasingly likely; a historic selloff ensued. With that said, the 90-day pau...
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. But that all changed in last week's Compass (4/1/25), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments (SPX and QQQ failure at 200-day MAs, bear flag breakdowns across major indexes targeting 5100-5200 on SPX, high yield spreads widening above 355bps, major tops on market leaders NVDA and META, semiconducto...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500 In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. We also said it likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation, that one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common (even during bull markets), and to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers...
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