Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500 In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. We also said it likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation, that one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common (even during bull markets), and to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers...
Int'l Equity Strategy Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI), though the most bullish regions are those outside of the U.S., notably within Europe and Japan. To recap our recent international reports, we have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&P 500 since our February 27 Int'l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&P 500 displayed false breakouts. At that time, we discussed to look for pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-567...
Buying Japanese Energy Stocks Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to Japanese Energy stocks at current levels. Japan is Breaking Out. The TOPIX and Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ-US) are breaking out following 5+ months of consolidation. RS (vs. MSCI ACWI) is also bullishly inflecting on both the TOPIX and DXJ ETF. We believe price and RS appreciation are in their early stages following 5+ months of consolidation... see page 2. Energy is Emerging as Leadership W...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
In last week's 3/04/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. The downward pressure has taken out many of the support levels that we outlined, including the bottom of the range at both 5770-5850 and 5600-5670. However a failure to recover above thses levels in the next few days would suggest the markets (S&P 500 and the Nasdaq) have made a top. As we outlined last week, we would need the ...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Upgrading Europe to Overweight We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers. The S&P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here at the 200-day MA as it has already provided two ideal buy o...
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support In last week's 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. We also said it likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation, and that if the S&P 500 remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers (though we need 5...
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Testing Support In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) (1) could not decisively break out to new highs, (2) displayed bearish false breakouts, (3) fell back into their 2+ month trading ranges, (4) violated their 1+ month uptrends, and (5) closed below their 20-day and 50-day MAs for the first time in over a month. We also said it likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation, and tha...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols bymarket-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels. With that said, we see potential for near-term downside as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and FANG+ (FNGS) (1) could not decisively break out to new highs, (2) display bearish false breakouts, (3) have fallen back into their 2+ month trading ranges, (4) are violating their 1+ month uptrends, and (5...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We have been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late September 2024 when we were neutral. We discussed in last week's Int'l Compass (Feb. 13, 2025) how both ACWI-US and the S&P 500 were coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts; the breakouts are here. We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have ...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis. Bottom line: our outlook remains bullish as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5770-5850. Our recommen...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
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