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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Buy the Pullback Again Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve. Two weeks ago, our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) all pulling back to their respective 20-day MAs, we believe it is time to buy the pullback again. We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early p...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Three Sector Upgrades and One Downgrade Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have only improved since our last ETF Pathfinder (11/4/24). In that report we discussed how we were finally getting an opportunity to add exposure on a pre-election pullback that we had been looking for. We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025. We expect to see support at the 20-da...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Ride the Trend Higher Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week. In last week's Compass (11/5/24) titled "Buy the Pullback," we discussed how we were buyers, noting that "once past the election, starting as early as today (election day) or tomorrow (day after the election), we believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis

Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass. This is the point where it became clear that the 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that we called for in late-July (7/25/24 Int'l Compass) was over, and that a new uptrend was underway. We have also been discussing since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the S&P 500 (the U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure, and th...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke
ACM AECOM
EME EMCOR GROUP ... (+11)

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Buy the Pullback Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher. We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback. We expect to see support on the SPX at 5600-5670, and we will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Once past the election, s...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Downgrading Health Care to Underweight Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The path of least resistance is higher. We have discussed for the past two+ weeks how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback. We expect to see support on the SPX at 5655-5670, and we will remain bullish as long as 5655 support holds. Downgrading Health Care t...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Downgrading Health Care to Underweight Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher. We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670. The prior two election years (2016 and 2020) saw 5% and 10% pullbacks, respectfully, during Septem...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Buying Global Technology; S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Remain Above Base Supports Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670. As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, noting that we would use any pre-election pullback as an opportunity to add exposure. The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&P 500 remai...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke
ACM AECOM
EME EMCOR GROUP ... (+22)

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- and Mid-Caps Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent S&P 500 (SPX) breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of last week's U.S. Macro Vision report (10/15/24). Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction. The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we are upgrading our outlook to bullish. Since late-July, our outlook has been neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX), preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction. The market is breaking to new highs, hence our upgrade. We would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, as long as the SPX holds a...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Breaking Out The U.S. (S&P 500) is breaking out after several months of consolidation, and the same can be said of the MSCI ACWI index (for which the U.S. accounts for 64% of the country weighting). As a result, we are upgrading our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish. While we are bullish on the S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI, and their breakouts could mean other countries are getting ready to break out, the U.S. (S&P 500) remains our only country overweight. Moreove...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis

STRATEGY We are upgrading our outlook on the S&P 500 from neutral to bullish following last week's weekly close above 5783. We previously downgraded our outlook to neutral in our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023, noting that we expected a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase with support coming-in at 5100-5191. Since late-August we have expected 5670-5783 to cap upside on the S&P 500, noting that we would go where the market takes us, i.e., upgrade to bullish on a break...

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