reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support The latest recessionary signal we are seeing includes WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, which only adds to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market and possible recession in the U.S., considering the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) have both triggered. We also discussed last week (August 29 Int'l Compass) how we were expecting the S&P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near cu...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023. Despite our expectations for a short-term rally since our 8/13/24 Compass, we still see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain concerning. Current price action on the SPX is extremely similar to prior major...
UTL UNITIL CORP.
SRE SEMPRA ENERGY
PPL PPL CORPORATION
PEG PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC
OGE OGE ENERGY CORP.
NI NISOURCE INC
NFG NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
NEE NEXTERA ENERGY INC.
LNT ALLIANT ENERGY CORP
EXC EXELON CORPORATION
ETR ENTERGY CORPORATION
ES EVERSOURCE ENERGY
DUK DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION
D DOMINION ENERGY INC
CPK CHESAPEAKE UTILITIES CORPORATION
CMS CMS ENERGY CORPORATION
ATO ATMOS ENERGY CORPORATION
FTS. FORTIS INC.
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Utilities to Overweight Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023. We believe we are not yet out of the woods as we still see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain a concern. Current price action on the S&P 500 is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns that occurred in April 2000 and August 2007, with 2007 b...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
R RYDER SYSTEM INC.
MOD MODINE MANUFACTURING COMPANY
HSC HARSCO CORPORATION
EZPW EZCORP INC. CLASS A
BBW BUILD-A-BEAR WORKSHOP
ATSG AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP INC.
ALDX ALDEYRA THERAPEUTICS
AAOI APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS INC.
NAVI NAVIENT CORP
USLM U.S. LIME & MINERALS
MLP MAUI LAND & PINEAPPLE CO. INC.
ANAB ANAPTYSBIO INC.
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
PGC PEAPACK-GLADSTONE FINANCIAL CORP.
NEON NEONODE INC.
PNTG PENNANT GROUP
COGT COGENT BIOSCIENCES INC
MRVI MARAVAI LIFESCIENCES HOLDINGS
VHI VALHI INC.
AFRM AFFIRM HOLDINGS
TNGX TANGO THERAPEUTICS INC
UWMC UWM HLDGS CORP
AVAH AVEANNA HEALTHCARE HLDGS INC
JXN JACKSON FINANCIAL INC
NU NU HLDGS LTD
FG WI F&G ANNUITIES & LIFE INC
INSG INSEEGO CORP.
ESEA EUROSEAS LTD
CASH GLOBAL X HIGH INTEREST SAVINGS ETF
SNCR SYNCHRONOSS TECHNOLOGIES INC.
SN SHARKNINJA INC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe). That includes 5670-5783 on the S&P 500, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50. We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels. It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that global equities (ACWI-US) are going through a 1- ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
ILMN ILLUMINA INC.
KMX CARMAX INC.
TFX TELEFLEX INCORPORATED
OMCL OMNICELL INC.
MDT MEDTRONIC PLC
MD MEDNAX INC.
LAD LITHIA MOTORS INC. CLASS A
JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON
GILD GILEAD SCIENCES INC.
EXPE EXPEDIA GROUP INC.
CNMD CONMED CORPORATION
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
BXP BOSTON PROPERTIES INC.
ATSG AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP INC.
APPS DIGITAL TURBINE
ANGO ANGIODYNAMICS INC.
AMPH AMPHASTAR PHARMACEUTICALS INC
AUP AURINIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC.
CRI CARTER'S INC.
LBRDA LIBERTY BROADBAND CORP. CLASS A
ASIX ADVANSIX INC.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
KREF KKR REAL ESTATE FINANCE TRUST
ROKU ROKU INC. CLASS A
PGC PEAPACK-GLADSTONE FINANCIAL CORP.
ZM ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
NVST ENVISTA HOLDINGS
MTCH MATCH GROUP INC.
GEVO GEVO
CGEM CULLINAN ONCOLOGY INC
OLPX OLAPLEX HLDGS INC
TSE TRINSEO PLC
EXFY EXPENSIFY INC
CCI CALAMOS GLB CNVRTBL & DYNMC INC COM
CSOAD COASTAL CONTACTS INC COM
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Upgrading Utilities to Overweight The S&P 500 (SPX) is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives. We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. To recap, (1) in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports we discussed how 5100-5191 was our target/bounce area on SPX, (2) we downgraded our long-t...
WEC WEC ENERGY GROUP INC
SR SPIRE INC.
PPL PPL CORPORATION
OKE ONEOK INC.
NI NISOURCE INC
LNT ALLIANT ENERGY CORP
EXC EXELON CORPORATION
ETR ENTERGY CORPORATION
DTE DTE ENERGY COMPANY
CMS CMS ENERGY CORPORATION
BKH BLACK HILLS CORPORATION
ATO ATMOS ENERGY CORPORATION
AEE AMEREN CORPORATION
FTS. FORTIS INC.
NEW WATTANA KARNPAET PCL
PCA PALACE CAPITAL
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Upgrading Utilities to Overweight The S&P 500 (SPX) is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives. We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. To recap, (1) in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports we discussed how 5100-5191 was our target/bounce area on SPX, (2) we downgraded our long-t...
SRE SEMPRA ENERGY
PPL PPL CORPORATION
PEG PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC
OKE ONEOK INC.
NEE NEXTERA ENERGY INC.
LNT ALLIANT ENERGY CORP
ETR ENTERGY CORPORATION
ES EVERSOURCE ENERGY
ED CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC.
DUK DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION
DTE DTE ENERGY COMPANY
CMS CMS ENERGY CORPORATION
ATO ATMOS ENERGY CORPORATION
AEE AMEREN CORPORATION
FTS. FORTIS INC.
MDU MDU RESOURCES GROUP INC
NEW WATTANA KARNPAET PCL
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis
MSCI EM Consolidating; Downgrading Taiwan The MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency) and EEM-US (USD) remain above major base supports ($41 on EEM-US), but we believe a new horizontal trading range is developing. As a result, we are neutral from a price perspective, and we would continue to favor defensive Sectors as the MSCI EM index approaches YTD highs and expected resistance. We also continue to favor EM over EAFE; the EM vs. EAFE ratio has been trending higher since March 2024. We...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
VEC VECTRUS
TRU TRANSUNION
RUN SUNRUN INC.
OSIS OSI SYSTEMS INC.
LINC LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES
LDOS LEIDOS HOLDINGS INC.
KTOS KRATOS DEFENSE & SECURITY SOLUTIONS INC.
IMAX IMAX CORPORATION
ERIE ERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY CLASS A
CUBE CUBESMART
ACGL ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD.
BBSI BARRETT BUSINESS SERVICES INC.
AVH AVITA MEDICAL CDI
HRTG HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC.
TATT TAT TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
HRB H&R BLOCK INC.
COKE COCA-COLA CONSOLIDATED INC.
FEIM FREQUENCY ELECTRONICS INC.
HLNE HAMILTON LANE INCORPORATED CLASS A
RDFN REDFIN CORPORATION
TIGO MILLICOM INTERNATIONAL CELLULAR S.A.
HOV HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES INC. CLASS A
PLMR PALOMAR HOLDINGS
LC LENDINGCLUB CORP
SG SWEETGREEN INC
HGTY HAGERTY INC
IGIC INTERNATIONAL GENERAL INS HLDGS LTD
CLMT CALUMET INC
MHH MAJESTIC HORIZON HOLDINGS LTD ORD
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
WNC WABASH NATIONAL CORPORATION
VC VISTEON CORPORATION
TS TENARIS S.A. ADS
TMST TIMKENSTEEL CORP
TGI TRIUMPH GROUP INC.
PCAR PACCAR INC
EMR EMERSON ELECTRIC CO.
MUR MURPHY OIL CORPORATION
CMCO COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION
TNC TENNANT COMPANY
VSH VISHAY INTERTECHNOLOGY INC.
BVN... COMPANIA DE MINAS BUENAVENTURA SAA SPONSORED ADR
HI HILLENBRAND INC.
SONO SONOS
COP COMPUGROUP MEDICAL SE & CO. KGAA
SHLS SHOALS TECHNOLOGIES GROUP
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Shift Now to Defensives Snap-back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe). With that said, Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, we continue to believe lower highs remain likely in both Japan and Europe. The S&P 500 is testing its YTD highs, something we have been looking for since our August 13, 2024 Compass, and we still believe it could make a ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports. Still, we believe we are not yet out of the woods as we still see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect. In light of this, we downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral in our 8/6/24 Compass a...
NEM NEWMONT CORPORATION
VGZ. VISTA GOLD CORP.
PKOH PARK-OHIO HOLDINGS CORP.
NGD. NEW GOLD INC.
AGI. ALAMOS GOLD INC.
ABX. BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION
TKO. TASEKO MINES LIMITED
K. KINROSS GOLD CORPORATION
AEM. AGNICO EAGLE MINES LIMITED
IMG. IAMGOLD CORPORATION
JAGGF JAGUAR MINING INC.
SEA SEABRIDGE GOLD
VMI VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC.
MLI MUELLER INDUSTRIES INC.
HRB H&R BLOCK INC.
ELD ELDORADO GOLD CORPORATION
HSCC HOMELAND SECURITY CORP.
JXN JACKSON FINANCIAL INC
COHR COHERENT CORP
MUX MCEWEN MINING INC.
CR CRANE CO NEW
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
WLDN WILLDAN GROUP
VIRC VIRCO MANUFACTURING CORP.
TBBK THE BANCORP
PSIX POWER SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONAL INC.
NWPX NORTHWEST PIPE CO.
KTOS KRATOS DEFENSE & SECURITY SOLUTIONS INC.
BFIN BANKFINANCIAL
AXGN AXOGEN INC.
ASPN ASPEN AEROGELS
MG/CN MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC.
HRTG HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC.
AUP AURINIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC.
GLOB GLOBANT SA
NGS NATURAL GAS SERVICES GROUP INC.
SGMS SCIENTIFIC GAMES CORPORATION
HRB H&R BLOCK INC.
MHH MASTECH DIGITAL
KINS KINGSTONE COS. INC.
FEIM FREQUENCY ELECTRONICS INC.
SIGA SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC.
SNFCA SECURITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL CORP. CL A
PSNL PERSONALIS
VHI VALHI INC.
KLXE KLX ENERGY SERVICES
MSGE MADISON SQUARE GARDEN ENTERTAINMENT
CLBT CELLEBRITE DI LTD
CINT CI&T INC
RKLB ROCKET LAB USA INC
PGRU PROPERTYGURU GROUP LTD
COHR COHERENT CORP
REAX ADL VENTURES INC
FTAI FORTRESS TRANSN & INFRAS INVS LLC
FIHL FIDELIS INSURANCE HOLDINGS LIMITED
LTH LIFE TIME GROUP HLDGS INC
ANG ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LIMITED
HG HAMILTON INSURANCE GROUP LTD.
AKA AKA BRANDS HOLDING CORP
UBXG U BX TECHNOLOGY LTD
TEM TEMPUS AI INC
BVS BAYVIEW CAPITAL TRUST I PFD 9.76%
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Downgrading Consumer Discretionary to Underweight We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target which we discussed in our 8/5/24 ETF Pathfinder. Still, we have downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral after being bullish since early-November 2023. We believe we are not yet out of the woods as we still see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain a concern. ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Downgrading Consumer Discretionary to Underweight We downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral last week (8/6/24 Compass) after being bullish since early-November 2023. We still believe the S&P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but the many risk-off signals have increased the odds that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern. It is possible that the low for this multi-month consolidation has already been established within our expected pullback zone of 5100...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
XEL XCEL ENERGY INC.
SGRY SURGERY PARTNERS INC.
SGMO SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS INC.
PLOW DOUGLAS DYNAMICS INC.
NWL NEWELL BRANDS INC
MCD MCDONALD'S CORPORATION
LAD LITHIA MOTORS INC. CLASS A
HAS HASBRO INC.
GTY GETTY REALTY CORP.
CLX CLOROX COMPANY
APD AIR PRODUCTS AND CHEMICALS INC.
ANGO ANGIODYNAMICS INC.
ALKS ALKERMES PLC
LBRDA LIBERTY BROADBAND CORP. CLASS A
MAT MATTEL INC.
UHT UNIVERSAL HEALTH REALTY INCOME TRUST
VFC V.F. CORPORATION
FLGT FULGENT GENETICS
PFE PFIZER INC.
CWEN CLEARWAY ENERGY INC. CLASS C
PEAK HEALTHPEAK PROPERTIES INC.
LSTR ELECTROSTAR S.A.
MTCH MATCH GROUP INC.
HRMY HARMONY BIOSCIENCES HOLDINGS
BALY BALLYS CORPORATION
SHYF THE SHYFT GROUP INC
NWM NORWEST MINERALS
DOUG DOUGLAS ELLIMAN INC
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