reports
- Tomi Railo
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - Challenging market set to persist
The Q1 report was weak, as revenues were badly hit by a challenging market, which looks set to persist near-term. We reiterate our HOLD and have cut our target price to NOK10 (12) on negative estimate revisions. At our new target price, the stock would be trading at a 2026e P/E of c5x, which we find to be warranted given the subdued market outlook and weak balance sheet.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Weak Q1, but better than forecast
XXL reported weak Q1 results, albeit slightly better than expected, as it continues to underperform in a challenging market. On a positive note, the company continues to make progress on its strategic initiatives and has improved its financial position following the private placement. We have cut our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 21–13% on slightly revised revenue and margin assumptions.
- Ebba Bjorklid
AFRY (Buy, TP: SEK203.00) - On track
In Q1, low capacity utilisation in Process Industries (PI) weighed on EBITA, but this headwind should ease from Q2. The infrastructure turnaround continued, and group capacity utilisation improved YOY excluding PI. We expect group capacity utilisation to improve YOY from H2. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK203 (205).
- Johannes Grunselius
SSAB (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Impressive earnings resilience
Q1 proved another solid quarter, aided by impressive earnings resilience in SSAB Special Steels and SSAB Europe. While we have lowered our 2024-25 forecasts for SSAB Americas, this is offset by a more positive view on SSAB Special Steels and SSAB Europe, meaning our group earnings are largely unchanged. We reiterate our BUY, but given the stock is now trading ex-dividend (DPS of SEK5), we have lowered our target price to SEK100 (SEK105).
- Niclas Gehin
Borregaard (Buy, TP: NOK200.00) - Q1 met expectations
The Q1 results were in line with expectations. While the BioSolutions segment beat our forecast due to higher volumes and prices, the Fine Chemicals segment saw lower deliveries than expected. We expect some of these volumes to revert and boost the Q2 result in Fine Chemicals. The BioMaterials segment was somewhat below our forecast, after a majority of the price negotiations for 2024 have been finalised. Demand appears to be rather strong for specialty cellulose and we thus see upside potential...
- Nicolas McBeath
Svenska Handelsbanken (Buy, TP: SEK138.00) - Not what we wanted to see
Given management’s stated commitment to improved cost efficiency, accelerating cost growth in Q1 was disappointing. NII also fell more than we expected, with management’s comments on increasing deposit competition in Sweden somewhat puzzling. Still, now valued below book with a healthy 11–12% ROE outlook for 2024–2026e (despite prospects of lower interest rates) and the 11–12% dividend yield set to hold, we find the valuation and risk/reward compelling. We have cut our 2024–2026e EPS by 3–5% and...
- Tomi Railo
- Johannes Grunselius
Billerud (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - US bolstering the team
The Q1 report demonstrates that Billerud is in good shape and, most importantly, significantly improved in pricing power across the board, in our view. Our optimistic earnings scenarios for Europe and North America are largely unchanged and we stress that a lot of earnings uncertainty has been eliminated. With modest consensus earnings expectations, attractive long-term valuation potential and a possibility for value creation from future conversion investments in the US, our confidence in the in...
- Simen Mortensen
Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK9.50) - No KPI recovery in Q1
As expected, Bonava reported close to zero EBIT and EPS. Moreover, the leading KPIs for starts and sales were weaker than expected, and we have cut our 2026e EPS. We continue to expect close to zero EPS in 2024–2026e, but with a P/B of c0.4x and refinancing in place with the Q1 equity issue, we believe the negatives are reflected in the share price. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK9.5 (8.5).
- Håkon Astrup
Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK125.00) - Signs of gradual improvement
Q1 PTP was up 30% YOY, largely driven by strong AUM growth and increased interest rates. The Insurance segment showed signs of improvement after several rounds of repricing in previous quarters, supporting the 2025 financial targets. Following regulatory approval and a 191% Solvency II ratio, Storebrand launched a NOK1.1bn buyback programme. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK125 (120) following ~4% positive EPS revisions for 2025e.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Cloudberry (Hold, TP: NOK9.00) - A tough start to the year
With Q1e hit by turbine issues at Odal, we forecast power production of 172GWh, translating into proportionate EBITDA of NOK51m. Based on more lost production at Odal, lower forward power prices and an outlook for reduced guarantee of origin prices, we have significantly cut our estimates (proportionate EBITDA down 19% for 2024e, 27% for 2025e, and 46% for 2026e). Given the lower power price outlook, we have also lowered our target price to NOK9 (10). We reiterate our HOLD.
- Simen Aas
Bilia AB (Buy, TP: SEK148.00) - Inflection point for new car orders
While management had flagged that Q1 was likely to be soft, operating earnings just beat our estimate. The key positive in the report was underlying order intake (after seven consecutive quarterly declines), helped by a recovery in Norway. We expect high campaign activity to extend the trend in Q2, along with still stable demand for service operations. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK148 (145).
- Niclas Gehin
Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK34.00) - EBITDA set to be largely flat YOY
We expect Elopak to report Q1 EBITDA of EUR42m and an EPS adj. of EUR0.06 (results due at 07:00 CET on 8 May), which is largely flat YOY in Europe and the Americas. We expect the European division to continue its strong performance from Q4 and for volumes to be solid. We have increased our 2024–2025e EPS by a modest ~1% and have raised our target price to NOK34 (29), primarily driven by multiples expansion in the peer group. We struggle to see material upside to the share price at a 2025e P/E of...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK230.00) - Time to rebuild credibility
We forecast Q1 organic sales growth of 3.0% YOY (consensus 2.8%) and an EBITA margin of 9.7% (consensus 9.6%). We see Hearing as starting well, and despite still-negative growth in Enterprise, we expect unchanged 2024 guidance. The upcoming CMD offers management scope to rebuild credibility, and we expect updated long-term targets to reflect “One-GN”. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK230 (215).
- Niclas Gehin
Rana Gruber (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Soft NOK offset soft iron ore prices
We estimate Q1 EBITDA of NOK142m for Rana Gruber in a quarter with falling iron ore prices. We have made small positive changes to our 2024–2026e EPS as a ~10% negative shift in the iron ore futures curve is more than offset by a ~10% depreciation in the NOK versus the USD. We continue to find a 2024e P/E of 7x on current spot rates attractive while we await the benefits from the company’s upgrade to Fe 65% and potential further upgrades on a longer time horizon. We reiterate our BUY and NOK90 t...
- Niclas Gehin
Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - Q1 slightly on the soft side
Q1 EBITDA was c2% below consensus, with a somewhat soft mix, as Extrusions and Aluminium Metal, the two largest segments, were below forecasts. We have increased our 2024e EPS by 7% on the USD2,600/t spot aluminium price, and 2025–2026e by 2% on the Q1 results. We are 30% below consensus 2025e EBITDA; we do not see enough demand to raise aluminium prices above the marginal producer’s cost, as the price appreciation in recent weeks suggests. We still expect aluminium prices to decline with lower ...
- Nicolas McBeath
SEB (Buy, TP: SEK192.00) - Braced for NII downturn
We find SEB well positioned to cope with looming NII headwinds, with potential for a commission revival, capital optimisation and lower regulatory fees to cushion a c15% ROE throughout 2024–2026e. We have raised our 2025e EPS by c2% and reiterate our BUY and with a raised SEK192(190) target price.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Aker Solutions (Hold, TP: NOK40.00) - Cash conversion in focus for 202...
We forecast Q1 EBITDA well above (28%) consensus, as we expect projects to reach profit recognition milestones, temporarily boosting margins. However, a working capital unwind is set to start in 2024 – likely as soon as Q1 – resulting in weak cash conversion and cash flow from operations. Following the partial sale of its subsea business, the investment case suffers from a lack of financial details for the OneSubsea JV, which we believe would be needed for investors to underwrite a higher valuat...
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