reports
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/US 10-year Treasury Note
The weekly chart is trying to find support at the previous falling trend line around the 107 62/64 level in making a higher bottom above the October bottom around the 105 24/64 level. Prices are under pressure since the close below the EMA-40 line at 111 1/64 in the first half of March, with the sell-off in April. Given the series of lower highs in the weekly chart after making a top around the 117 level March/May last year, the downward pressure was to be expected. Prices closed off the lows...
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/UBS capital need, Rabobank and Intesa capital, EPBD finali...
Swiss finance minister supports substantially higher capital requirements for UBS. Rabobank tender for participation notes to result in a limited dent in its MDA headroom, Intesa Sanpaolo calls AT1. The Council of the EU adopts the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive recast. Equitable Bank is in the market with an inaugural social covered bond. Monte dei Paschi di Siena returns in CPT covered bond format
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/UBS capital need, Rabobank and Intesa capital, EPBD finali...
Swiss finance minister supports substantially higher capital requirements for UBS. Rabobank tender for participation notes to result in a limited dent in its MDA headroom, Intesa Sanpaolo calls AT1. The Council of the EU adopts the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive recast. Equitable Bank is in the market with an inaugural social covered bond. Monte dei Paschi di Siena returns in CPT covered bond format
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ASM International: 1Q24 Preview - focus on order intake. Barco: Preview 1Q24 - a slow start to the year. B&S Group: Solid year-end performance and healthy outlook. Fastned: 1Q24 trading update – disappointing charging volume. Staffing: Hays' 3Q23/24 trading update - warning on 3Q23/24, weaker trends
- James Smith
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/Bund future
We changed our stance from, ‘Selling the rallies' into ‘Buying on weakness' last Friday, but the weekly chart still shows that there is a job to be done. Last week closed slightly higher at 132.50, a rise of 34bp, although there was a lower high at 133.05 and low at 131.31 in relation to the week before., with prices still below the flattening EMA-40 line at 133.54. It is also not ruling out new lows below 131.31 within the bottoming process, although the downside is limited with solid horizont...
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: CNY depreciation risk adds to bullish dollar tone
As if high US inflation and strong activity data, geopolitical risks and a looming ECB rate cut were not enough to drive the dollar stronger, the dollar could now be buoyed by Chinese authorities allowing a weaker renminbi. For today, let's see how sterling reacts to important wage data, and Canadian CPI could add to speculation of a June rate cut
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Stijn Demeester
OCI N.V./Model update ahead of 1Q24/BUY
We update our model, with our lower 2024F Adj. EBITDA estimate mostly explained by a refined view on phasing of holdco costs and gas hedging losses, as well as weather-related adverse volumes in 1Q24. We reiterate our BUY on OCI, an ING Benelux Favourite, on the back of appealing re-rating potential post-closing of the two recent transformative divestments, generating c.US$6.1bn in net cash proceeds, and optionality of the ongoing strategic review, which could lead to further crystallising of as...
- Francesca Ferragina
- Javier Campos Unda
Eurocommercial Properties/Model update/BUY
We update our estimates (unchanged for 2024F and -3.9% in 2025F) and roll over our model by one year; we confirm our BUY rating and €29 TP. After the strong organic performance seen in FY23, we expect a normalisation of the trend and a gradual increase of financial charges. Balance sheet is solid and leaves €150-170m firepower for extension of existing assets or some new deals. We would welcome the announcement of a JV or an acquisition (at a proper price) or extensions project for existing asse...
- Lynn Song
- Ewa Manthey
- Warren Patterson
- Lynn Song
- Rob Carnell
- Benjamin Schroeder
- Michiel Tukker
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Rates Spark: Rates see near-term geopolitical risks averted
US data remains the main driving force for rates even as geopolitics have reentered the fray. A beat in retail sales pushed 10Y Treasury yields to new highs for the year. The further spike in market implied volatilities is also a reflection of the near-term almost binary outcome around geopoltical risks as markets still await Israel's final reaction
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical analysis/Cocoa
• Prices slightly exceeded the US$9,150/MT low of 4 April but closed at US$9,312/MT on 5 April. The further rise within the next few days confirmed that a continuation of the uptrend was still the most likely scenario, despite the violation of the steep trend line around US$9,850/MT in the beginning of the month. A break below a trend line does not automatically mean the start of a larger correction. What we are seeing is an uptrend within a slower pace.
- Maurice van Sante
Construction companies see efficiency gains due to milder winters
Warmer winter weather means European construction contractors are experiencing less business disruption as our climate warms. More extreme heat in the summer can make outside work impossible, but those disturbances are only increasing marginally
- James Knightley
US household spending holds firm
Remarkably strong retail sales numbers for March contradict somewhat weaker survey and credit card spending evidence, but with jobs, inflation and activity all beating expectations the Federal Reserve is in no position to carry through with interest rate cuts anytime soon
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/TTF Natural Gas
We mentioned that prices were already slowly breaking above the upper end of the falling trend channel around the €26.00/MWh level in the weekly chart in the beginning of last week. The solid close at €30.73/MWh confirms the breakout, likely followed by higher prices within the next few weeks.
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Timothy Rahill
Bite Size Strategy/Wait-and-see but still positive in credit
Spreads remained unchanged to a touch tighter on the week, with no major moves yet this morning following a week of two halves and a busy weekend in the geopolitical arena. Spreads were initially constructive last week but weakness set in later in the week following the higher than expected CPI print, resulting in an uptick in rates. There were also growing geopolitical concerns. Credit is now stable in a rather quiet market as we enter wait-and-see mode.
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
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