reports
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/NBFI's liquidity preparedness, no S&P rating changes expec...
Financial Stability Board on Non-Bank Financial Institutions' liquidity preparedness to margin and collateral calls. No rating upgrades expected at S&P for Icelandic covered bonds following the rating agency's systemic importance reassessment. UniCredit confirms to call the US$1.25bn AT1 in June, the bank can easily absorb the negative impact on its substantial MDA buffer
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/NBFI's liquidity preparedness, no S&P rating changes expec...
Financial Stability Board on Non-Bank Financial Institutions' liquidity preparedness to margin and collateral calls. No rating upgrades expected at S&P for Icelandic covered bonds following the rating agency's systemic importance reassessment. UniCredit confirms to call the US$1.25bn AT1 in June, the bank can easily absorb the negative impact on its substantial MDA buffer
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank on it/Sizing up the buffers
We take a look at how banks are positioned to meet the expected increase in capital requirements. For our bank universe the total regulatory capital requirement is set to increase some 30bp on average this year, with the bulk already as of 1 January, and the highest increase is set for c.140bp. We consider most banks are well positioned to absorb the impact. We would remain most comfortable taking more risk in the liability structure in banks with stronger MDA headroom such as in Crédit Agricole...
- James Knightley
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
BAM: Preview - stable performance in difficult markets. Belgian telecoms: Telenet 3.5% price increase. Econocom: 1Q24 modest growth in line, sales guidance maintained. Philips: Preview 1Q24. Proximus: Acquires additional 5G spectrum from NRB. Signify: Preview 1Q24 - Slow start to the year. Staffing: Manpower - 1Q24 beats, 2Q24 outlook a touch above and trends stabilizing. WDP: No surprise
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Middle East turmoil strengthens dollar position
Israel's retaliatory strike on Iran overnight triggered an initially big reaction across asset classes, although markets appear moderately less concerned at the European market open. Safe-haven currencies are leading the pack, and there are now risks of a more structural bearish turn on EUR/USD
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/Bund future
We changed our stance from, ‘Selling the rallies' into ‘Buying on weakness' last Friday, but the weekly chart still shows that there is a job to be done. Last week closed slightly higher at 132.50, a rise of 34bp, although there was a lower high at 133.05 and low at 131.31 in relation to the week before., with prices still below the flattening EMA-40 line at 133.54. It is also not ruling out new lows below 131.31 within the bottoming process, although the downside is limited with solid horizont...
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
Geopolitical tensions rattled EM credit markets this week, while resilient economic data continues to drive UST yields higher. Despite the pullback this week, spread levels remain relatively tight and further supply in the coming weeks could be a trigger for continued weakness.
- Marc Hesselink
- CFA
- Thymen Rundberg
CM.com/On track/BUY
CM.com's 1Q24 update was largely inline with our expectations with lower gross profit compensated by better OPEX control. We expect this trend to continue and as a result we have limited changes to EBITDA estimates. We believe the company is well on track to become structurally profitable on a FCF basis from 2H24 onwards. This should mitigate any balance sheet uncertainty. We keep our BUY rating and €10.50 target price.
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
FX Technical/Essential currency/FX pairs
In the beginning of this year, we mentioned that a longer-term consolidation in the US Dollar seems most likely, not showing a clear direction for this year. Possibly some interesting rallies and declines from time to time which will offer a trading opportunity.
- Quirijn Mulder
Vopak/FY24 guidance too cautious/BUY
When Vopak reports its 1Q24 next week, we foresee a positive surprise in the numbers. The main reason in our view is that the guidance given by management is too cautious, followed suit by consensus estimates. In our view market conditions haven't changed overnight like volatile oil markets due to geopolitical unrest, stable chemical markets and higher results for gas thanks to Eemshaven contribution. With this outlook, good cash flow in FY24 and in the years ahead, thanks to dedicated managemen...
- Min Joo Kang
- Ewa Manthey
- Warren Patterson
- Benjamin Schroeder
- Michiel Tukker
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Rates Spark: The lost term premium to return
The term premium represents a compensation for being in long tenors. Currently there is virtually none. Back in October we had a 40bp term premium in the 10yr yield. A re-build towards that is the cleanest route to 5% for the 10yr yield. And even at that level, that's a mild term premium. Only a 0.2% on next week's PCE deflator can keep us from hitting these levels
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/Solid quarter from Nordea, Bankinter 4Q, Deposit Insurance...
Nordea earnings continue to benefit from deposit margins. Bankinter: support from high rates starts to fade. Committee on economic and monetary affairs to vote on European Deposit Insurance Scheme proposal today. Canadian EUR covered bonds more attractive
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/Solid quarter from Nordea, Bankinter 4Q, Deposit Insurance...
Nordea earnings continue to benefit from deposit margins. Bankinter: support from high rates starts to fade. Committee on economic and monetary affairs to vote on European Deposit Insurance Scheme proposal today. Canadian EUR covered bonds more attractive
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/Bund future
We changed our stance from, ‘Selling the rallies' into ‘Buying on weakness' last Friday, but the weekly chart still shows that there is a job to be done. Last week closed slightly higher at 132.50, a rise of 34bp, although there was a lower high at 133.05 and low at 131.31 in relation to the week before., with prices still below the flattening EMA-40 line at 133.54. It is also not ruling out new lows below 131.31 within the bottoming process, although the downside is limited with solid horizont...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Azelis: Bloomberg report citing M&A interest. BE Semiconductor Industries: 1Q24 preview, focus on order intake. Greenyard: Crème de la Crème acquisition. Just Eat Takeaway.com: Deliveroo reports 1Q24 trading. Melexis: 1Q24 Preview, focus on pricing. NSI: Guidance confirmed, LTV improves, small but interesting investments might come. Sligro: 1Q24 results in line with expectations Vastned: Key €100m single asset disposal achieved
- David Szonyi
- Peter Virovacz
National Bank of Hungary Preview: Now is not the time to surprise mark...
The reducing local risk premium since the last meeting led us to believe that the pace of cuts could be maintained. However, the recent spate of unfavourable domestic and international developments justifies a more cautious approach from the NBH. We see a 50bp cut in April
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