reports
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 17 Aug 2018
This week the 5 topics are: 1. Deflation Risk: We look at a series of unique indicators on reflation trade positioning, risk-on/risk-off, commodities, and the prospects of deflation risk. 2. Emerging Market Equities: We outline the key short term and long term drivers to arrive at a conclusion that EM Equities face long term gain, but short term pain. 3. Flows and Allocations: US investor sentiment and allocations have been little shaken through the correction, but that could change as U...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 10 Aug 2018
The 5 topics this week are: 1. Global Cyclicals vs Defensives: Cyclicals vs defensives remain on-watch as a risk to global equities should a bearish rotation take hold, and particularly so in the US. We show with charts how the situation is unfolding and what investors should be paying attention to. 2. US Credit Conditions: US credit conditions continue to improve, providing a supportive funding backdrop for growth. See how this ties into the outlook for US HY credit. 3. US Investmen...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 3 Aug 2018
**In this week's edition I walk through a few ideas and themes I discussed with clients and investors on a recent trip. 1. USDCNY: The path of least resistance for the USDCNY is higher - find out why we think this. 2. US Dollar Index: The case for USD strength in H2 is compelling based on the charts and indicators we monitor as well as the key macro themes we've highlighted. 3. Emerging Markets: EM face elevated near-term macro downside risks based on a couple of key macro themes, our cha...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 27 July 2018
This week we cover the following 5 topics: 1. Global Trade & Earnings: We check out the very latest data and key trends at a global level in trade volume growth and corporate earnings momentum.2. Global Property Price Trends: The softening trend in global property price growth needs to be monitored closely given the interrelations with key markets. Check out the key charts.3. The CANZ Economies: With overvalued housing markets, high household leverage, and property price growth rolling over, the...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 20 July 2018
This week it's commodities in focus... 1. Commodities: In aggregate the risks are to the downside for commodities as key levels are breached and the prospects of a stronger USD and global growth scare mount. 2. Copper: Copper could fall another 15% from here based on our charts and analysis. 3. Crude Oil: We look at the risk/reward outlook for WTI crude oil prices with regards to futures positioning, the US dollar, the supply/demand balance, and seasonality. We also check in on the energy ...
- Callum Thomas
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 13 July 2018
This week we look at: 1. OECD CLIs: We take a unique perspective on the OECD CLIs to discover a series of key trends for the global economy as well as within the emerging and developed economies. 2. Credit Breadth: We reveal a couple of unique/weird indicators that we've developed in attempt to flag risks to credit spreads in advance. 3. EMFX & Policy: Emerging markets are being taken to a place they don't want to be. 4. DXY Update: An update to our successful bullish DXY call - what...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 6 Apr 2018
Covered in this report: 1. Global PMIs: The global PMIs have predictably softened, but remain at solid levels, and for now reinforce the outlook for risk assets. We look at 8 charts on the global picture and specifically on the US situation and credit conditions. 2. Cross Asset Risk: Equity volatility is the odd asset out across the mainstream asset classes. We look at how the global equity market correction is progressing and the next steps. 3. SCANNZ Economies: The SCANNZ economies re...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 30 Mar 2018
1. Global Monetary Policy & EM: EM equities have benefited from a solid earnings/macro backdrop, see the key charts on global monetary policy and EM macro. 2. EM Equity Valuations: Surveying EM equity valuations presents a picture of relative value, but not absolute value. We look at 8 charts that reveal the valuation picture for Emerging Markets. 3. Global Property: Global property price trends look positive for now, but the outlook is less certain. 4. US HY Credit: The game is quickly...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 2 Feb 2018
This week we cover 1. PMI & CMI: The global manufacturing PMIs are holding up for now, and in the US point to accelerating GDP growth, while the CMI plunge seems to have been a false alarm. 2. China Consumer and Currency: The Chinese consumer is going strong, and as economic rebalancing progresses, maybe we should be paying more attention to this. 3. Bond Tactics: We examine the bond market selloff, looking at technicals, breadth, valuations, sentiment, and the fundamental drivers and draw...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 26 Jan 2018
This week it's basically Currencies and Commodities 1. US Dollar Index: A set of charts and analysis on the outlook for the US dollar - a very topical and timely look at a key asset class and major macro variable. 2. EURUSD (aka DXY Part 2): Long euro has become a crowded trade, which paired with policy divergence makes it vulnerable to a pullback. 3. Gold: With gold on the verge of a major upside breakout but it's not as clear cut as some may have you think, these charts help build the (bear...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 19 Jan 2018
This week it's basically all global equity relative plays and global credit spreads! 1. US Cyclicals vs Defensives: We look at the key charts and indicators for US cyclicals and defensives and explain why this driver of the new bull market is increasingly a potential risk trigger point. 2. Global equity relativities: We look across global equity markets to identify some of the extremes in relative performance and identify a couple of areas where reversals will result in opportunities. 3. US...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 12 Jan 2018
This week (first report back for the new year!) we look at: 1. Data Review: We take a look at our key macro indicators across the global economy to see what trends greet us in the new year from a global trade, growth, and credit situations perspective. We also review how this impacts on the key asset classes. 2. Maturing Cycle: There is mounting evidence that the business cycle is steadily maturing in developed economies, the logical next step is more inflation and a turning of the tides in ...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - End of Year Special Edition 2017
“The End of Year Special Edition takes a different format to the usual weekly ppt chartbook, and presents you with highlights, reflections, and some of the best charts of 2017. I sincerely hope you enjoy it!” -- Callum Thomas, Head of Research and founder of Topdown Charts Report Contents: A. Charts That Worked B. Charts That Didn't Work C. My Favorite Charts D. Charts to Watch in 2018 E. Honorable Mentions F. People's Choice Charts G. Fun With Charts
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 15 Dec 2017
1. A Wobbling Cycle: The December global PMI and consumer sentiment numbers look solid, yet there are some concerning signals emerging in the copper price and global equity breadth. 2. Fed Up Markets: The Fed funds rate impacts risk assets when it rises too far, too fast, or too high relative to key macro variables, and for now none of these boxes are ticked. See what charts we're watching and the signals to watch out for. 3. US Dollar: The US dollar could have a big year in 2018 and we ...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 8 Dec 2017
1. Global macro pulse: Overall the data remain consistent with a global economic upturn, with signs of a maturing cycle which should be inflation positive and negative bonds. 2. Economic Policy Uncertainty: The charts and indicators we watch show risk appetites seem to have decoupled from economic policy uncertainty, however this disconnect is unlikely to last as the global monetary policy tides begin to turn. 3. Out with the Gold: There are several key factors and graphs which inf...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 1 Dec 2017
This week we look at issues ranging from credit and economic cycles to capital market action cycles and the "SCANNZ economies". 1. The CMI: We review this often overlooked indicator and why it is so critical for adding perspective on economic cycles, credit conditions, and timing decisions around key asset classes. 2. US IPO Market: IPO statistics can provide useful market timing signals, and at present IPO filings and withdrawal activity are consistent with a maturing bull market. 3. Global M&...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 24 November 2017
This week features a very interesting set of topics: 1. Inflation/reflation: The charts show a very interesting picture for developed economies with growth accelerating and spare capacity all used up, next step = inflation? 2. Bonds unyielding: The weight of risks appear to be cyclically weighted to the upside for US government bond yields given valuation, sentiment, and cyclical signals. See the charts we're watching. 3. Europhoria: As European economic sentiment accelerates to fresh post-c...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 17 Nov 2017
1. Global equity relativities: The extremes in relative performance of momentum/growth/cyclicals are a familiar sign of a maturing market (check out the must-see chart in the report), and at a minimum suggest scope for relative performance clawback. 2. US cyclicals cycle high: US cyclical sectors have reached extreme levels, we run a series of indicators which show how the balance of risks lie after a substantial rally. 3. Japan at the top: The TOPIX has topped out at the top end of its 20-...
- Callum Thomas
Weekly Macro Themes - 10 Nov 2017
This week we cover these particularly interesting issues: 1. OECD Leading Indicators: Taking aggregate, breadth, and diffusion views on the global OECD CLIs presents a picture of an improving global economy, and supportive cyclical outlook for global equities. 2. SLOOS Scrutiny: Despite some slightly contradictory signals on the economy, the lending/credit surveys point to solid economic activity, easy credit conditions, and a positive outlook for risk assets. Check out the key charts to wat...
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