ADMIE IPTO Holding S.A.

Edison initiates coverage on ADMIE Holding (ADMIE)

Edison Investment Research Limited
Edison initiates coverage on ADMIE Holding (ADMIE)

07-May-2019 / 10:21 GMT/BST


London, UK, 7 May 2019

Edison initiates coverage on ADMIE Holding (ADMIE)

ADMIE Holding offers exposure to growth in the Greek electricity transmission grid IPTO, a regulated utility with significant growth opportunities from investments in new transmission lines. IPTO's underleveraged balance sheet (0.9x adjusted net debt/EBITDA at the end of 2018) sustains a c EUR4bn investment plan, which we estimate will result in a regulated asset base (RAB) CAGR of 11% in 2018-27. Although we believe the regulatory allowed rate of return is set at a level in line with cost of capital and the company has strong growth potential, ADMIE Holding's current share price implies a c 40% discount to 2019 equity RAB (including work in progress) and a more than 20% discount to EU regulated utilities' P/E multiples.

Despite the growth potential, the stock is trading at a discount of c 30% to average European regulated utilities' P/E ratios. We believe the current allowed regulatory rate of return for IPTO is broadly in line with the cost of capital, even though the stock is trading at a c 40% discount to FY19 equity RAB. An RAB-based valuation of EUR2.83/share implies c 60% upside to the current share price. While a key risk for our investment case is a delay in the implementation of the capex plan, which would result in a lower earnings and dividend growth outlook, we note that the current valuation does not appear to incorporate any growth potential.

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Reports on IPTO Holding S.A.

Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
  • Nikos Athanasoulias CFA

ADMIE Holding | WACC step-up unlocks further value

Regulator raises IPTO’s WACC… – One year after setting IPTO’s WACC for the regulatory period 2022-2025, the Regulator (RAAEY) made a noteworthy decision revising upward the respective return for the period 2023-25 to 7.45%-7.57% (from 6.1% previously). We expect this change to unlock further value for ADMIE Holding and to catalyse further upside following a period of somewhat disappointing performance during 2022. In particular, the enhanced WACC coupled with IPTO's hefty €5bn 10-year investment...

Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
  • Nikos Athanasoulias CFA

ADMIE Holding | WACC step-up unlocks further value

Regulator raises IPTO’s WACC… – One year after setting IPTO’s WACC for the regulatory period 2022-2025, the Regulator (RAAEY) made a noteworthy decision revising upward the respective return for the period 2023-25 to 7.45%-7.57% (from 6.1% previously). We expect this change to unlock further value for ADMIE Holding and to catalyse further upside following a period of somewhat disappointing performance during 2022. In particular, the enhanced WACC coupled with IPTO's hefty €5bn 10-year investment...

Andreas Souvleros ... (+5)
  • Andreas Souvleros
  • CFA
  • Natalia Svyriadi
  • Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
  • Stamatios Draziotis CFA

Greek Equity Strategy – 2023 outlook | Clear and rewarding destination...

2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...

Andreas Souvleros ... (+5)
  • Andreas Souvleros
  • CFA
  • Natalia Svyriadi
  • Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
  • Stamatios Draziotis CFA

Greek Equity Strategy – 2023 outlook | Clear and rewarding destination...

2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...

Nikos Athanasoulias CFA ... (+2)
  • Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
  • Stamatios Draziotis CFA

ADMIE HOLDING | Unloved and undervalued

Regulated activity with ample growth prospects… – Through its 51% stake in IPTO, a natural monopoly that owns and operates the Greek Transmission System, ADMIE Holding is expected to play a key role in the Greek energy transition. The Greek regulator RAE has approved a c€5bn 10-year investment plan for IPTO, which translates into 13% RAB CAGR over 2022-2030e (and 16% through to 2025e), by far the highest RAB growth profile among its EU peers (c5% in the medium term). … and visibility around re...

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