Aperam update on Q3 2024 market & financial trends
Luxembourg, September 30, 2024 (07:00 CET) - In preparation of the upcoming quarterly results release scheduled for Friday, 8 November 2024, we would like to remind market participants of the standing guidance, earnings drivers and events that should be considered.
The Q3 outlook, as specified in the Q2 presentation, the management podcast and during the conference call was:
- Q3 group adjusted. EBITDA slightly higher than Q2-24 (EUR86m). This was based on stable volumes in a seasonally softer quarter balanced by the improvement in the Brazil hot rolling mill, the segment trends stated in the table below and stable commodity prices resulting in a slightly less positive inventory valuation qoq.
- This compares to the Aperam compiled Q3 adjusted EBITDA consensus at EUR93m (average) currently. The consensus is updated & published at
|
Recycling & Renewables
|
Normalised annual EBITDA of EUR80-85m. We projected Q3 with a slightly lower result qoq (Q2 adj. EBITDA: €20m) as scrap volumes incur seasonal low in an already low market while BioEnergia is stable
|
|
Stainless & Electrical Europe
|
For Q3 we projected a lower adj. EBITDA qoq due to the seasonal summer slowdown in volumes.
|
|
Stainless & Electrical Brazil
|
Q3 adj EBITDA is expected at a higher level qoq due to seasonally slightly higher volumes and the absence of the hot rolling mill related costs
|
|
Alloys & Specialties
|
We expected a lower adj EBITDA qoq mainly due to seasonal summer maintenance. The EUR80m guidance for 2024 remains valid
|
|
Services & Solutions
|
We expected a lower adj EBITDA qoq in Q3 due to the seasonal summer slowdown in volumes
|
|
Others & Eliminations
|
A high single digit negative EBITDA should normally be expected.
We expect Q3 to be broadly consistent with this
|
|
Cash Flow & Net Fin. Debt
|
NWC: For Q3 we projected an increase in net working capital mainly due to a technicality as purchasing and payables drop in the summer quarter. Guidance for the year for NWC release is unchanged
Capex EUR150m for 2024 of which EUR103m were spent during H1.
Q3 net debt: Higher due to the higher net working capital.
|
Please note that forward guidance for adjusted EBITDA, cash flow and net debt is always provided on a stable commodity price assumption.
|
Commodity prices & FX
|
|
|
|
JUN 24
|
JUL 24
|
AUG 24
|
SEP 24*
|
|
Nickel LME
|
USD/t
|
17,572
|
16,325
|
16,270
|
16,097
|
|
Ferrochrome
|
USD/t
|
3,175
|
3,263
|
3,241
|
3,153
|
|
Stainless Scrap
|
USD/t
|
1,527
|
1,534
|
1,511
|
1,311
|
|
Stainless CR 2mm 304
|
USD/t
|
3,191
|
3,119
|
3,025
|
3,047
|
|
USD/EUR
|
x
|
1.08
|
1.09
|
1.10
|
1.11
|
|
USD/BRL
Source: Bloomberg, Fastmarkets *up to 29. September
|
x
|
5.40
|
5.54
|
5.55
|
5.54
|
|
Other items
|
|
|
Volume seasonality
|
In a normal market, Q3 is the weakest quarter, but the performance improvement in the refurbished Brazil hot rolling mill will compensate the seasonal effect
|
|
Leadership Journey Phase 5
|
On track to realise the target gains of EUR75m in 2024.
|
|
Commodity prices & inventory valuation
|
We projected a positive but slightly lower inventory valuation effect qoq for Q3. While some raw material prices have softened since then we do not expect this to impact the adj. EBITDA guidance
|
|
Distributor Inventor:
|
A small increase has been recorded from the all time low but tonnage remains significantly below normal
|
|
Current trading
|
The pre-summer price volume improvement has been maintained during the vacation period without significant changes in either direction. Assuming stable raw material price this points to an unusual seasonality with a higher H2 adj. EBITDA versus H1. It needs to be seen if the recent deterioration of the manufacturing PMI will have any effect in Q4.
|
Forward Looking Statements
This document may contain forward-looking information and statements about Aperam SA and its subsidiaries. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the words ‘’believe’’, ‘’expect’’, ‘’anticipate’’, ‘’target’’ or similar expressions. Although Aperam’s management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of Aperam’s securities are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Aperam, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in Aperam’s filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market Authority for the Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier). The information is valid only at the time of release and Aperam does not assume any obligation to update or revise its forward-looking statements on the basis of new information, future events, subject to applicable regulation.
Contact
Company Secretary / Delphine Féraud Valendru:
Investor Relations / Thorsten Zimmermann:
