AUGA group, AB EBITDA guidance for 2024
On December 7, 2023, AUGA group, AB and its subsidiaries (hereinafter – the Group) is to reveal the preliminary EBITDA guidance for 2024. Group’s historical performance can be found
In Q3 2023, the Group has implemented strategic changes in its operations that will have a significant impact on the future financial results. As previously announced, the Group took a decision to diversify its crop growing activities and converted 1/3 of its organic land into regenerative conventional in order to address the changing market dynamics, whereby decreased organic commodity prices came as a result of lower consumer offtake and surplus of organic commodities in the market. Such a decision will also help to adapt to climate conditions, where the winter crops in rotation are a more resilient culture.
Overall, results from agricultural operations are difficult to forecast due to uncertain weather conditions and volatile commodity prices. Given the circumstance that transformed business model of the AUGA Group adds complexity in interpreting its future results even more, the Group has decided to provide initial guidance for the 2024 EBITDA with the main assumptions based on which gross profit by segments and total EBITDA are forecasted. Such an initiative is aimed at more transparency and investor empowerment to be able to better understand the expected financial results.
The Group estimates its full year EBITDA (derived from the formula published in ) could reach EUR 23.3 million in 2024:
| EUR, million | |
| Crop growing gross profit | 14.7 |
| Dairy gross profit | 2.0 |
| Mushroom growing gross profit | 2.2 |
| FMCG gross profit | 0.5 |
| Biomethane gross profit | 2.0 |
| Depreciation | 13.8 |
| OPEX | -12.0 |
| Est. EBITDA 2024 | 23.3 |
The guidance has been based on the key assumptions below:
- Crop growing: the Group converted 15,500 ha of organic land to conventional agriculture (at the end of November, 2023 the following cultures have been planted: 6,700 ha of conventional winter wheat with estimated yield of 6.7 t/ha and MATIF price 236.25 EUR/t (September, 2024), 4,700 ha of conventional rapeseed with estimated yield of 3.5 t/ha and MATIF price of 442.75 EUR/t (August, 2024). In the meantime, 22,700 ha of land will stay in organic farming (at the end of November, 2023, 4,400 ha of organic winter wheat have been planted with estimated yield of 4.2 t/ha and price 260 EUR/ha).
- Dairy: the Group is planning that a number of dairy cows with the milk yield on a similar level and the total milk production will remain the same (25,500 t) with the average price of 480 EUR/t.
- Mushroom growing: estimating that prices and yields will remain as in 2023 and costs will be managed at the same level.
- Biomethane: based on the current price-level, the Group is expected to employ 2/3 of its production capacity.
- Planned agricultural subsidies: EUR 13.4 million.
- Depreciation expenses are planned to remain at a similar level as previous year.
- The OPEX has been based on the assumption of historical Group’s performance with the adjustments associated with the change in cost-levels and the business model at large.
Contacts:
CEO of AUGA group, AB
Elina Chodzkaitė-Barauskienė
*IMPORTANT NOTICE
The information is neither audited nor reviewed by independent third parties and should be considered as preliminary and potentially subject to change.
This information may also contain certain forward-looking statements, including but not limited to, the statements and expectations regarding anticipated financial and operational performance. These statements are based on the management's current views, expectations, assumptions, and information as of the date of this information announcement as well as the information that was accessible to management at that time. Statements herein, other than statements of historical fact, regarding AUGA group’s, AB future results of operations, financials, business strategy, plans and future objectives are forward-looking statements. Words such as “forecast”, “expect”, “intend”, “plan”, “will”, “may”, “should”, “continue”, “predict” or variations of these words, as well as other statements regarding matters that are not a historical fact or regarding future events or prospects, constitute forward-looking statements. AUGA group, AB bases forward-looking statements on its current views, which involve a number of risks and uncertainties, which may be beyond AUGA group’s, AB control or difficult to predict and could cause the actual results to differ materially from those predicted and from the past performance of AUGA group, AB. The estimates and projections reflected in the forward-looking statements may prove incorrect and the actual results may materially differ due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, legislation and regulatory factors, geopolitical tensions, economic environment and industry development, commodities and markets factors, environmental factors, finance-related risks as well as expansion and operation of generation assets. Therefore, you should not rely on these forward-looking statements.
No responsibility or liability will be accepted by AUGA group, AB its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents for any loss or damage resulting from the use of forward-looking statements in this document. Unless required by the applicable law, AUGA group, AB is under no duty and undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
