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Edison Investment Research Limited: Boku (BOKU): Simplifying mobile commerce

Edison Investment Research Limited
Edison Investment Research Limited: Boku (BOKU): Simplifying mobile commerce

06-Apr-2022 / 07:00 GMT/BST


 

London, UK, 6 April 2022

 

Boku (BOKU): Simplifying mobile commerce

Boku's FY21 results reflect continued strong momentum in the Payments business and improved performance in the since-sold Identity business. Local payment methods added to the Boku network over the last three years showed an accelerating contribution to monthly active user numbers, increasing ninefold over 2021, and made up nearly 10% of new users in the year. We have revised our forecasts to remove revenue from Russian carriers and estimate an EPS CAGR of 13.7% over FY21-24e.

 

Boku is trading on an FY22e EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.9x, at a 48% discount to the payment processing peer average of 34.5x, compared to a 15% discount last time we . Applying the average multiple would imply a share price of 216.4p. In our view, evidence that strong revenue growth can be sustained will be the main catalyst for the share price, with a growing contribution from local payment methods and new major merchants signing up key indicators.


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 PRESS RELEASE

Edison issues outlook on Boku (BOKU): Making the complex simple for gl...

Edison Investment Research Limited Edison issues outlook on Boku (BOKU): Making the complex simple for global merchants 20-March-2024 / 14:37 GMT/BST The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.   London, UK, 20 March 2024   Edison issues outlook on Boku (BOKU): Making the complex simple for global merchants Boku’s strategy to widen its offering within the local payment method (LPM) market accelerated FY23 revenue growth to 30%, with 15% growth from the core direct carrier billing (DCB) business and supplemented by 153% growth from eWallets and real-...

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Boku’s strategy to widen its offering within the local payment method (LPM) market accelerated FY23 revenue growth to 30%, with 15% growth from the core direct carrier billing (DCB) business and supplemented by 153% growth from eWallets and real-time payments. EBITDA grew 27% y o y as the company continued to invest in building out its LPM network from a technological and regulatory perspective. With all major merchants using or planning to use Boku’s wider portfolio of payment methods, the comp...

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Boku expects to report FY23 revenue and adjusted EBITDA ahead of our and consensus forecasts, helped by strength from both the core direct carrier billing (DCB) business and rapid growth in adoption of local payment methods (LPM). The strong finish to FY23 highlights positive momentum going into FY24 and we have upgraded our forecasts, with adjusted EBITDA up 7.6% for FY23, 5.3% for FY24 and 4.8% for FY25.

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Boku - Upgraded outlook for FY23

Boku reported H123 revenue growth of 26% y-o-y to $38.2m, with a growing and now material contribution from local payment methods (LPMs). Adjusted EBITDA was 28% higher and the margin expanded by 0.7pp, as upside from higher revenues was partially offset by further investment to support LPMs. We have revised up our forecasts to reflect faster growth in total payment volumes (TPV) partially offset by higher investment in Boku’s payments network.

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Boku - Strong H1 drives upgrades

Boku saw strong growth in total payment volume (TPV) in H123 translating to revenue growth of at least 24% (31% constant currency) and EBITDA growth of at least 25%. Local payment methods (LPMs) were a key driver of growth, pushing up the take rate to 0.76% and contributing 19% of revenue. The company also announced that CEO Jon Prideaux will be stepping down from his role at the end of the year; his successor will be Stuart Neal, who was previously CFO of Boku, providing continuity and decades ...

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