BRD-Groupe Societe Generale

  • TickerBRD
  • ISINROBRDBACNOR2
  • ExchangeBucharest Stock Exchange
  • SectorBanks
  • CountryRomania
Research Team

WOOD Daily: BRD RO; EU Macro; AFLT RX; CCOLA TI; PZU PW

HEADLINES: • BRD-GSG: capital accumulation (upgraded to BUY) • Europe macro: reflections on the ECB • Aeroflot: EGM to authorise capital increase today - we believe the market is too optimistic • Coca-Cola Icecek: announces special dividend POSITIVE • PZU: additional takeaways after 2Q20 results

Alex Boulougouris, CFA ...
  • Stefan Lungu, CFA

BRD-GSG: Capital accumulation (upgraded to BUY)

We have upgraded BRD-GSG to BUY (from Hold) and increased our price target (PT) to RON 15.3/share from RON 13.5/share. Although 2020E is a challenging year for profitability, it is also a year of capital accumulation. The ban on dividend payments, the lower RWA and the softer yields on the sovereign book have resulted in a massive capital position, with a TCR of c.27% as of June 2020 (+700bps yoy). In our view, RWA growth (c.5-6% from 2021E-onwards) and the current dividend policy (a 70-80% payout) will not be enough to consume the capital and a period of strong dividend payments or capital re...

Ildar Davletshin, CFA ...
  • Stefan Lungu, CFA

WOOD Flash – Frontier Investor Days Conference: feedback and highlights

On 3-4 September, we hosted our 2020 Frontier Investor Days Conference, with 44 companies from Romania, Kazakhstan and the rest of the Frontier markets in our region participating. Here, we highlight the key takeaways from our meetings with the corporates, as well as some country-level highlights for Romania and Kazakhstan. The outlook is improving overall, even for some of the worst-hit industries, such as restaurants and airports, but the main unknown in every forward-looking conversation is the path of the pandemic.

Research Team

WOOD Daily: RU Macro; LPP PW; YNDX US; Frontier Conference Postcards – TLV RO, BRD RO, BVB RO, PBK RO, SAB1L LH, POSR SV

HEADLINES: • Russia macro: CBR may pause the easing • LPP: CFO expects FY20E sales to be stronger than guided, after decent recent months POSITIVE • Yandex: increases share in Taxi, spins off Self-Driving POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: postcard from our Frontier Conference • BRD-GSG: postcard from our Frontier Conference • Bucharest Stock Exchange: postcard from our Frontier Conference • Patria Bank: postcard from our Frontier Conference • Siauliu Bankas: postcard from our Frontier Conference • Sava Re: postcard from our Frontier Conference • Short News (MTSS, POS...

Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkish ISE30 still weak, down 9.6% in August

EME Equity Market – August 2020 Market performance – most indices end August in the black, but the ISE30 Index decline continues, down 9.6%. In August, the MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.2% in EUR terms, but stayed mostly flat (+0.1%) in local currency terms. Romania’s BET Index performed the best, up 7.2%; followed by the Greek ASE Index (+2.7%); the Czech Republic’s PX Index (+2.4%); Poland’s WIG20 Index (+2.3%); and the MOEX Index (+0.5%). The Hungarian BUX Index declined by 2.6%, followed by the ISE30 Index, the poor performance of which reflects the current weakness of Turki...

Insider sold: A director sold 9,270 shares at 11.343RON

A director at Brd-Groupe Societe Generale sold 9,270 shares at 11.343RON and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. ...

Alex Boulougouris, CFA ...
  • Stefan Lungu, CFA

BRD-GSG: Capital accumulation (upgraded to BUY)

We have upgraded BRD-GSG to BUY (from Hold) and increased our price target (PT) to RON 15.3/share from RON 13.5/share. Although 2020E is a challenging year for profitability, it is also a year of capital accumulation. The ban on dividend payments, the lower RWA and the softer yields on the sovereign book have resulted in a massive capital position, with a TCR of c.27% as of June 2020 (+700bps yoy). In our view, RWA growth (c.5-6% from 2021E-onwards) and the current dividend policy (a 70-80% payout) will not be enough to consume the capital and a period of strong dividend payments or capital re...

Ildar Davletshin, CFA ...
  • Stefan Lungu, CFA

WOOD Flash – Frontier Investor Days Conference: feedback and highlights

On 3-4 September, we hosted our 2020 Frontier Investor Days Conference, with 44 companies from Romania, Kazakhstan and the rest of the Frontier markets in our region participating. Here, we highlight the key takeaways from our meetings with the corporates, as well as some country-level highlights for Romania and Kazakhstan. The outlook is improving overall, even for some of the worst-hit industries, such as restaurants and airports, but the main unknown in every forward-looking conversation is the path of the pandemic.

Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkish ISE30 still weak, down 9.6% in August

EME Equity Market – August 2020 Market performance – most indices end August in the black, but the ISE30 Index decline continues, down 9.6%. In August, the MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.2% in EUR terms, but stayed mostly flat (+0.1%) in local currency terms. Romania’s BET Index performed the best, up 7.2%; followed by the Greek ASE Index (+2.7%); the Czech Republic’s PX Index (+2.4%); Poland’s WIG20 Index (+2.3%); and the MOEX Index (+0.5%). The Hungarian BUX Index declined by 2.6%, followed by the ISE30 Index, the poor performance of which reflects the current weakness of Turki...

Raiffeisen Centrobank Equity Daily 06.08.2020

â—¾AT: Austrian Banks - Deposit insurance contributions up 69% after Commerzialbank default (negative) â—¾AT: S&T - 2Q 20 slightly ahead of RCBe, guidance confirmed at sales of EUR 1,150 mn & EBITDA of 115 mn (positive) â—¾HU: Magyar Telekom - 2Q 20 figures in line but increase in planned fibre investments leads to increase in capex guidance (negative) â—¾PL: PKO BP, Bank Pekao - 2Q 20 conference calls summary (positive) â—¾RO: Banca Transilvania, BRD-GSG, Erste Group - National Bank of Romania reduced key interest rate by 25 bps to 150 bps (neutral) â—¾RU: Petropavlovsk - Further bond convers...

Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Equities back in the red in EUR terms in July

EME Equity Market – July 2020 Market performance – majority of indices in the red, with the ISE30 Index down 12.6%. Following its mediocre decline in June, the MSCI EM Europe Index declined 4.4% in EUR terms, but gained 0.4% in local currency terms in July. Following the rather large decline in the Turkish equities, the MOEX Index was also down, 3.5%, in July; while the Athens’ benchmark declined 3.3% and the Romanian BET Index fell 3.2%. Following its gain last month, the PX Index declined by 2.4%, followed by the Hungarian BUX Index, -0.4%. The only benchmark with a positive return in ...

Research Team

WOOD Daily: BRD RO; EU Macro; AFLT RX; CCOLA TI; PZU PW

HEADLINES: • BRD-GSG: capital accumulation (upgraded to BUY) • Europe macro: reflections on the ECB • Aeroflot: EGM to authorise capital increase today - we believe the market is too optimistic • Coca-Cola Icecek: announces special dividend POSITIVE • PZU: additional takeaways after 2Q20 results

Research Team

WOOD Daily: RU Macro; LPP PW; YNDX US; Frontier Conference Postcards – TLV RO, BRD RO, BVB RO, PBK RO, SAB1L LH, POSR SV

HEADLINES: • Russia macro: CBR may pause the easing • LPP: CFO expects FY20E sales to be stronger than guided, after decent recent months POSITIVE • Yandex: increases share in Taxi, spins off Self-Driving POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: postcard from our Frontier Conference • BRD-GSG: postcard from our Frontier Conference • Bucharest Stock Exchange: postcard from our Frontier Conference • Patria Bank: postcard from our Frontier Conference • Siauliu Bankas: postcard from our Frontier Conference • Sava Re: postcard from our Frontier Conference • Short News (MTSS, POS...

Research Team

WOOD Morning (5 August June 2020)

HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: honey, I'm tougher than the rest (upgraded to BUY) • European natural gas monthly: July 2020 NEUTRAL • Bank Pekao: big surprise on the bottom line driven by costs and NII POSITIVE • PKO BP: solid 2Q20 delivery, COR performance is much better than elsewhere in the sector NEUTRAL • Atrium 2Q20: encouraging turnovers in June at 77% vs. last year; 3% revaluation loss booked • Piraeus Bank: solid 2Q20 results across the board POSITIVE • Wizz Air: July passengers down 53%, vs 70% drop at Ryanair in July • BRD-GSG: notes from the conference call • Turke...

Research Team

WOOD Daily: CEZ CP; RICHT HB; KOMB CP; SAB1L LH; BRD RO; MTSS RX; PL Utilities; EME Macro/Strategy – ESI; EME Strategy – RO; TEN PW; CIE PW

HEADLINES: • CEZ: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (upgraded to BUY) • Richter: 2Q20 beat on Vraylar milestone POSITIVE • Komercni Banka: weak 2Q20 delivery, but 2020E outlook reiterated and capital ratios show strength • Siauliu Bankas: solid beat in 2Q20, driven by lower COR POSITIVE • BRD-GSG: 2Q20 net profit softer on higher COR • Mobile Telesystems: management recommends RUB 8.93 DPS (RUB 17.86/ADR), based on 1H20 results POSITIVE • Polish utilities: Minister Sasin comments on Poland's coal phase out and sector overhaul POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: CE...

Research Team

WOOD Daily: MONET CP; EBS AV; VESBE TI; SBER RX; MGNT LI; EME Macro/Strategy – ESI; OPL PW; NVTK LI; KCEL KZ; KRKG SV; OPAP GA; OMV AV; BRD RO; RICHT HB; TPEIR GA; ETE GA; OTP HB; TLV RO; NLBR SV

HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: 2Q20 miss on provisions frontloading; bank restores medium-term guidance • Erste Bank: posts lower-than-expected 2Q20, but due to frontloading of risk charges NEUTRAL • Vestel Beyaz: 2Q20 - in line with expectations, but bullish expectations could support share price NEUTRAL • Sberbank: 2Q20 highlights NEGATIVE • Magnit: 2Q20 slightly ahead of expectations POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: July ESI • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the 2Q20 earnings call POSITIVE • Novatek: takeaways from the 2Q20 conference call • Kcell: key takeaways from ...

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