United States Copper Index Fund

  • TickerCPER
  • ISINUS9117181043
  • ExchangeNYSE Arca
  • SectorNonequity Investment Instruments
  • CountryUnited States
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. • Bent, Not Broken. Several key areas of the market have deteriorated, however none are truly breaking ...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Global indexes at major resistance Despite the S&P 500 having crept into all-time high territory, several signals continue to give us reason for pause as they are not indicative of what we would expect to see in a typical bull market. Below we highlight some of these signals which give us reason for pause, including major global indexes (ACWI and IOO) which find themselves at critical resistance... see charts below. • Reasons for pause: RS is neutral and consolidating for defensive bond proxy Sectors. Price trends are neutral at best for banks (KBE, KRE), transports (IYT), small-caps (IWM), ...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Market purgatory continues Despite the generally positive developments highlighted below, our outlook remains neutral and we see the S&P 500 remaining rangebound between support at 2,720-2,730 and resistance at the all-time highs of 2,954. We continue to believe an eventual breakout or breakdown is likely to be the deciding factor as to where the market is headed next. • U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar has weakened and is testing critical support. We continue to believe further weakening has the potential to save global risk assets by providing a tailwind for EM/foreign equities and the commodi...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Positive outlook intact Overall we remain positive on U.S. and foreign equities. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to this conclusion: • Broadening yield curve inversions = recession? The more pronounced yield curve inversion (3M/10Y and 1Y/10Y) is unsettling and is a concern of ours. At the same time we believe it does not automatically equate to a recession in the near-term, and lower yields may actually serve to stimulate the economy. Additionally, high yield spreads are not suggestive of worsening economic conditions... see chart below and page 2. • Small vs. large-...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

The S&P 500 managed to close above the key 2,817 resistance level last week as the recovery from 4Q2018 continues. We would like to see a more decisive upside move and for the index stay above this level for a few more days before calling it an official breakout. Overall we remain positive and continue to believe a “buy the dip” strategy is warranted. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to our positive outlook: • An offensive Sector shift: We are upgrading Materials (RTM, XLB) to market weight as RS continues to stabilize. Additionally, we are downgrading Health Care (RYH) t...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. • Bent, Not Broken. Several key areas of the market have deteriorated, however none are truly breaking ...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Global indexes at major resistance Despite the S&P 500 having crept into all-time high territory, several signals continue to give us reason for pause as they are not indicative of what we would expect to see in a typical bull market. Below we highlight some of these signals which give us reason for pause, including major global indexes (ACWI and IOO) which find themselves at critical resistance... see charts below. • Reasons for pause: RS is neutral and consolidating for defensive bond proxy Sectors. Price trends are neutral at best for banks (KBE, KRE), transports (IYT), small-caps (IWM), ...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Market purgatory continues Despite the generally positive developments highlighted below, our outlook remains neutral and we see the S&P 500 remaining rangebound between support at 2,720-2,730 and resistance at the all-time highs of 2,954. We continue to believe an eventual breakout or breakdown is likely to be the deciding factor as to where the market is headed next. • U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar has weakened and is testing critical support. We continue to believe further weakening has the potential to save global risk assets by providing a tailwind for EM/foreign equities and the commodi...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Positive outlook intact Overall we remain positive on U.S. and foreign equities. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to this conclusion: • Broadening yield curve inversions = recession? The more pronounced yield curve inversion (3M/10Y and 1Y/10Y) is unsettling and is a concern of ours. At the same time we believe it does not automatically equate to a recession in the near-term, and lower yields may actually serve to stimulate the economy. Additionally, high yield spreads are not suggestive of worsening economic conditions... see chart below and page 2. • Small vs. large-...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

The S&P 500 managed to close above the key 2,817 resistance level last week as the recovery from 4Q2018 continues. We would like to see a more decisive upside move and for the index stay above this level for a few more days before calling it an official breakout. Overall we remain positive and continue to believe a “buy the dip” strategy is warranted. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to our positive outlook: • An offensive Sector shift: We are upgrading Materials (RTM, XLB) to market weight as RS continues to stabilize. Additionally, we are downgrading Health Care (RYH) t...

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