CRNO/B CERENO SCIENTIFIC AB

Edison issues initiation on Cereno Scientific (CRNO B): Differentiated approach in CVD with potential

Edison Investment Research Limited
Edison issues initiation on Cereno Scientific (CRNO B): Differentiated approach in CVD with potential

22-Feb-2024 / 12:36 GMT/BST
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.


 

London, UK, 22 Februar 2024

Edison issues initiation on Cereno Scientific (CRNO B): Differentiated approach in CVD with potential

Cereno Scientific is a clinical-stage biotech, developing treatments for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) using novel approaches. Its focus on disease-modifying therapies and a collaboration with Abbott set it apart from peers. Lead asset CS1, a delayed immediate release formulation of valproic acid, is an HDAC inhibitor, aiming to deliver disease-modifying results in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Preclinical candidates include CS014, for thrombosis prevention without increased risk of bleeding (seen with current antithrombotics), and CS585 for CVD (specific indication not yet determined). 2024 will be a period of inflection, with top-line readouts from the Phase II CS1 study and expected clinical entry of CS014. We initiate coverage with a valuation of SEK2.32bn (SEK9.9/share).1

Our valuation (using a risk-adjusted net present value model) is almost entirely driven by CS1 in PAH, to which we attribute a 25% probability of success, a 2029 launch and peak sales of c $2.1bn. While we include CS014 in our model, the very early stage of development leads to limited valuation uptick, although this may change with clinical progression. CS585 has been excluded from our valuation for now. Gross cash of SEK87.1m at end-FY23, an expected SEK77m from warrant conversion and a SEK45m committed loan should be sufficient to fund operations into Q225. We model a partnership agreement for CS1 in 2026.

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  1. Before this report was published, a technical issue led to this introductory paragraph temporarily appearing on the Edison website between 15.40 and 16.20 GMT on 21 February 2024. It was removed as soon as Edison was made aware. As with all Edison publications, Edison controls the editorial and timings of publications and we wish to make it clear that Cereno Scientific had no involvement in the aforementioned issue.

All reports published by Edison are available to download free of charge from its website

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Reports on CERENO SCIENTIFIC AB

Sean Conroy
  • Sean Conroy

Cereno Scientific - A productive period with plenty more to come

Cereno Scientific has released its Q324 results, marking a productive and strategically significant period. Following the positive top-line data from the Phase IIa safety study of CS1 in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), Cereno decided to concentrate its development programmes on rare diseases. Key developments included the selection of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) as the target indication for second asset, CS014, and the positioning of its preclinical asset, CS585, towards rare dise...

Sean Conroy
  • Sean Conroy

Cereno Scientific - CMD highlights a ‘rare’ portfolio refocus

Cereno Scientific recently held a capital markets day (CMD), providing greater insight on its development pipeline and strategic objectives. The key takeaway was its decision to focus on the rare disease space across its three programmes, a move we believe was strategically driven to maximise potential clinical and commercial success, and to appeal to future partners. While lead asset CS1 is targeting pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), supported by Fluidda and CardioMEMS (pivotal studies exp...

Sean Conroy
  • Sean Conroy

Cereno Scientific - CS1 shines in Phase IIa PAH trial

Cereno Scientific has reported positive top-line results for the Phase IIa CS1-003 trial, which evaluated the HDAC inhibitor CS1 in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The primary endpoint of safety and tolerability was met and, importantly, CS1 delivered encouraging results on exploratory efficacy measures, creating a strong foundation for the next steps of clinical development, in our view. The recently signed agreement with medical technology company Fluidda to visualise the impact of CS1 ...

Sean Conroy
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Cereno Scientific - CS1 granted OMPD, complementing FDA ODD

Cereno Scientific’s lead asset CS1 has been granted the Orphan Medicinal Product Designation (OMPD) from the European Commission as a potential treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The OMPD provides 10 years of market exclusivity, assuming CS1 receives EU regulatory approval, in addition to fee waivers during the development process. Further, this regulatory designation complements the FDA Orphan Drug Designation (ODD) granted in 2020, bolstering the value proposition of the cand...

Sean Conroy
  • Sean Conroy

Cereno Scientific - Pressing clinical assets forward to key inflection

Cereno Scientific has announced its Q224 results, reflecting tangible progress with its clinical candidates. Key developments include closing of patient recruitment for the Phase II CS1 trial (as of 1 July) and the rapid clinical entry for CS014. Initial safety data from the CS014 study are anticipated from mid-2025 and will serve as a key catalyst. In the near term, we expect investor interest to be focused on the top-line readouts (within Q324) from the Phase II trial for lead asset CS1 in pul...

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