Canadian consumer delinquencies starting to rise
Seniors’ delinquency rates up for third straight quarter
TORONTO, March 05, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Equifax® Canada reports that consumer delinquencies have started their modest turn higher in the last quarter of 2018. The 90-day mortgage delinquency rate rose by 1.5 per cent to 0.18 per cent and the comparable non-mortgage rate was up 0.4 per cent to 1.07 per cent. This comes after two quarters of significant increases in consumer bankruptcies.
Total consumer debt including mortgages also increased to $1.906 trillion in Q4, up from $1.821 trillion in Q4 2017 (+4.6 per cent). The average non-mortgage holding for consumers has reached $23,520, a 3 per cent increase from the same quarter last year.
“As we expected, the worm is turning in the Canadian credit market,” said Bill Johnston, Vice President of Data & Analytics at Equifax Canada. “Bankruptcies are up 15 per cent in the last half of 2018 and the small increase in delinquency rates mask some underlying weakness. Rising delinquency is likely to become the norm in 2019.”
While the 90-day-plus delinquency rate was up marginally from a year ago, seniors have now reported three straight quarters of rising delinquency. In Q4, the delinquency rate for seniors was up by 7.2 per cent and the increases are gaining momentum. From a regional perspective, Manitoba posted the most significant increase in delinquency at 6 per cent with Saskatchewan (1.1 per cent), Quebec (1 per cent) and BC (0.6 per cent) also higher.
Mortgage delinquency remained very low, but did trend higher in many regions. Manitoba posted a 19 per cent increase in 90-day mortgage delinquency with Saskatchewan up 9 per cent. Quebec (4 per cent) and Ontario (2 per cent) also posted higher mortgage delinquencies, breaking a long winning streak that stretched back to at least 2015 Q4.
As for credit growth, bank loans remain the primary engine, rising 6.5 per cent year-over-year in the fourth quarter to an average of $27,667. Credit card balances were up 2.4 per cent to $3,904, partly reflecting the fact that fewer people are paying off their cards in full each month. Slowing car sales have put a drag on automobile finance loans, which were up only 1 per cent in Q4. There has been a significant shift to leasing, as higher interest rates are impacting the manufacturers’ financing terms.
Debt (excluding mortgages) & Delinquency Rates
| Age | Average Debt (Q4 2018) | Average Debt Change Year-over-Year (Q4 2018 vs. Q4 2017) | Delinquency Rate (Q4 2018) | Delinquency Rate Change Year-over-Year (Q4 2018 vs. Q4 2017) | ||||
| 18-25 | $8,777 | 1.9% | 1.48% | -1.2% | ||||
| 26-35 | $18,191 | 2.5% | 1.54% | 0% | ||||
| 36-45 | $28,668 | 3.5% | 1.23% | -0.9% | ||||
| 46-55 | $35,566 | 4.3% | 0.92% | -1.0% | ||||
| 56-65 | $29,792 | 3.6% | 0.82% | 0.4% | ||||
| 65+ | $16,162 | 2.9% | 0.96% | 7.2% | ||||
| Canada | $23,520 | 3.0% | 1.17% | 0.4% | ||||
Major City Analysis – Debt (excluding mortgages) & Delinquency Rates
| City | Average Debt (Q4 2018) | Average Debt Change Year-over-Year (Q4 2018 vs. Q4 2017) | Delinquency Rate (Q4 2018) | Delinquency Rate Change Year-over-Year (Q4 2018 vs. Q4 2017) | ||||
| Calgary | $30,099 | 2.1% | 1.21% | 3.1% | ||||
| Edmonton | $28,863 | 6.0% | 1.41% | -3.3% | ||||
| Halifax | $23,680 | -0.8% | 1.54% | 7.9% | ||||
| Montreal | $17,733 | 1.7% | 1.21% | -0.1% | ||||
| Ottawa | $22,567 | 2.4% | 0.90% | -3.9% | ||||
| Toronto | $22,935 | 4.5% | 1.12% | 0.1% | ||||
| Vancouver | $26,518 | 2.9% | 0.70% | 3.5% | ||||
| St. John's | $25,538 | 0% | 1.65% | 15.1% | ||||
| Fort McMurray | $39,914 | 4.1% | 1.76% | 0.4% | ||||
Province Analysis - Debt (excluding mortgages) & Delinquency Rates & Bankruptcy Amount
| Province | Average Debt (Q4 2018) | Average Debt Change Year-over-Year (Q4 2018 vs. Q4 2017) | Delinquency Rate (Q4 2018) | Delinquency Rate Change Year-over-Year (Q4 2018 vs. Q4 2017) | ||||
| Ontario | $23,949 | 4.2% | 0.94% | -0.5% | ||||
| Quebec | $19,438 | 1.7% | 0.99% | 1.0% | ||||
| Nova Scotia | $22,674 | -0.2% | 1.73% | 2.6% | ||||
| New Brunswick | $23,677 | 1.1% | 1.78% | 7.0% | ||||
| PEI | $23,006 | 1.6% | 1.34% | 4.7% | ||||
| Newfoundland | $24,030 | 0.4% | 1.72% | 11.3% | ||||
| Eastern Region | $23,305 | 0.4% | 1.72% | 6.0% | ||||
| Alberta | $29,508 | 4.1% | 1.35% | -1.2% | ||||
| Manitoba | $18,948 | 1.6% | 1.37% | 6.0% | ||||
| Saskatchewan | $25,070 | -0% | 1.47% | 1.1% | ||||
| British Columbia | $24,763 | 2.3% | 0.85% | 0.6% | ||||
| Western Region | $25,896 | 2.8% | 1.15% | 0.2% | ||||
| Canada | $23,520 | 3.0% | 1.07% | 0.4% | ||||
About Equifax Inc.
Equifax is a global information solutions company that uses unique data, innovative analytics, technology and industry expertise to power organizations and individuals around the world by transforming knowledge into insights that help make more informed business and personal decisions. Headquartered in Atlanta, Ga., Equifax operates or has investments in 24 countries in North America, Central and South America, Europe and the Asia Pacific region. It is a member of Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500® Index, and its common stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the symbol EFX. Equifax employs approximately 11,000 employees worldwide. For more information, visit and follow the company’s news on and .
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