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- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Malaysia Research Team
- Peerawat Dentananan
- Robin Yuen
- Shaun Tan
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanadech Rungsrithananon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, January 22, 2021
KEY STORY GREATER CHINA Initiate Coverage Topsports International Holdings (6110HK/BUY/HK$12.50/Target: HK$15.00): Sportswear market leader trading at bargain prices. GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales dragged by lockdowns. Downgrade the auto sector to MARKET WEIGHT on increased risks of COVID-19 and chip shortage, and rich valuations. Prefer the NEV segment. Top picks: BYD, CATL and Minth. Upgrade Weichai to BUY. Property Management: Outlook is upbeat for leading property managers; watch out for short-term catalysts. Initiate Coverage Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK...
TAL Education Group (TAL US) : 3QFY21: Margin drag by marketing expenses, Supercharge moving towards FY22.
TAL reported a softer set of 3QFY21 results. Revenue grew by 35.0% yoy to US$1.1b, in line with ours and consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net profit was at US$10.4m against consensus estimate of US$43.8m due to a higher-than-expected marketing expenditure. 4QFY21 revenue was guided at US$1,175.0m-1,200.8m (representing 37-40% yoy growth), 4% lower than street estimates. We maintain BUY with a higher target price of US$95.00.
Greater China Daily: Friday, January 22, 2021
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales dragged by lockdowns. Downgrade the auto sector to MARKET WEIGHT on increased risks of COVID-19 and chip shortage, and rich valuations. Prefer the NEV segment. Top picks: BYD, CATL and Minth. Upgrade Weichai to BUY. Property Management Outlook is upbeat for leading property managers; watch out for short-term catalysts. Initiate Coverage Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK/BUY/HK$12.50/Target: HK$15.00) Sportswear market leader trading at bargain prices. Results TAL Education Group (TAL US/BUY/US$67.74/Target: US$95.00) 3QFY21: High...
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
TAL: Attendee Capacity Growth Driving Better FY3Q21 Topline Results; Marketing For Online Education Business Continues To Soar
TAL will report FY3Q21 results on January 21st before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. We are positive on TAL’s FY3Q21 performance. In FY3Q21, we believe TAL is likely to benefit from the higher growth of the number of normal-price courses and associated attendees in Peiyou as well as its continuing efforts in online expansions. Based on our data and calculations, we believe the company’s FY3Q21 revenue is likely to be higher than consensus at $1,030M (24.4% Y/Y growth vs. company’s guidance of 28% - 32% Y/Y growth) and our estimate, and likely to come in towards the higher-en...
Int'l Insights: EM Strategy
EM Outperforming; Favor EM over EAFE With many global markets crumbling last week, one might assume that EM would have underperformed -- but that is not what transpired. What we saw was a decline in the US dollar which, along with improving coronavirus metrics in China, led to EM outperformance. Reiterating our 12/20/19 EM Strategy, we continue to believe EM is a better place to be than EAFE, supported by new highs in the EM vs. EAFE ratio and our ongoing belief that the US dollar is likely not headed for meaningfully new highs in the near-term... see charts below. Below we highlight attrac...
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Upgrading cap-weighted Communications to overweight; 10 to 2's Treasury spread breaking out We continue to move increasingly toward the bullish camp and we believe equities are poised for higher prices moving forward. Below we highlight several developments which help lead us to this conclusion. • 10 to 2's Treasury yield spread widening & breaking out. The 10 to 2's spread is quietly breaking out to YTD highs and breaking above a ~2.5-year downtrend. This steepening yield curve is good for Financials/banks and also the economy as recession concerns are subsiding... see chart below. • ...
Int'l Macro Vision: Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy
In our January 31 International Compass we presented a case for an incrementally improving overall global outlook, with the caveat that market bottoms tend to be a process that develops over many weeks. Since the end of January, not a lot has changed to alter our views. We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist but Sector leadership is mixed. In our February International Strategy, we explore various themes which lead to our overall constructive outlook, along with areas of the market wher...
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Global indexes approaching major resistance Broad global indexes are bumping up against logical downtrend resistance. As a result, our outlook remains cautious and our baseline expectation for continued downward pressure on global equities remains intact. At the same time, we are seeing signs that the worst of the declines may be behind us as global cyclical Sectors show RS improvements while defensive Sectors display early signs of RS deterioration. • Regional/Country Overview. The U.S., Europe, and Japan all remain in downtrends from a price perspective, though major resistance levels a...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Malaysia Research Team
- Peerawat Dentananan
- Robin Yuen
- Shaun Tan
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanadech Rungsrithananon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, January 22, 2021
KEY STORY GREATER CHINA Initiate Coverage Topsports International Holdings (6110HK/BUY/HK$12.50/Target: HK$15.00): Sportswear market leader trading at bargain prices. GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales dragged by lockdowns. Downgrade the auto sector to MARKET WEIGHT on increased risks of COVID-19 and chip shortage, and rich valuations. Prefer the NEV segment. Top picks: BYD, CATL and Minth. Upgrade Weichai to BUY. Property Management: Outlook is upbeat for leading property managers; watch out for short-term catalysts. Initiate Coverage Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK...
TAL Education Group (TAL US) : 3QFY21: Margin drag by marketing expenses, Supercharge moving towards FY22.
TAL reported a softer set of 3QFY21 results. Revenue grew by 35.0% yoy to US$1.1b, in line with ours and consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net profit was at US$10.4m against consensus estimate of US$43.8m due to a higher-than-expected marketing expenditure. 4QFY21 revenue was guided at US$1,175.0m-1,200.8m (representing 37-40% yoy growth), 4% lower than street estimates. We maintain BUY with a higher target price of US$95.00.
Greater China Daily: Friday, January 22, 2021
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales dragged by lockdowns. Downgrade the auto sector to MARKET WEIGHT on increased risks of COVID-19 and chip shortage, and rich valuations. Prefer the NEV segment. Top picks: BYD, CATL and Minth. Upgrade Weichai to BUY. Property Management Outlook is upbeat for leading property managers; watch out for short-term catalysts. Initiate Coverage Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK/BUY/HK$12.50/Target: HK$15.00) Sportswear market leader trading at bargain prices. Results TAL Education Group (TAL US/BUY/US$67.74/Target: US$95.00) 3QFY21: High...
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
TAL: Attendee Capacity Growth Driving Better FY3Q21 Topline Results; Marketing For Online Education Business Continues To Soar
TAL will report FY3Q21 results on January 21st before the markets open with an 8am EST conference call. We are positive on TAL’s FY3Q21 performance. In FY3Q21, we believe TAL is likely to benefit from the higher growth of the number of normal-price courses and associated attendees in Peiyou as well as its continuing efforts in online expansions. Based on our data and calculations, we believe the company’s FY3Q21 revenue is likely to be higher than consensus at $1,030M (24.4% Y/Y growth vs. company’s guidance of 28% - 32% Y/Y growth) and our estimate, and likely to come in towards the higher-en...
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Joyce Chan Pui Lai
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Oscar Jiang
- Shaun Tan
Greater China Daily: Friday, July 26, 2019
KEY HIGHLIGHTS CHINA Sector Automobile 1H19 results preview; maintain OVERWEIGHT. Results TAL Education Group (TAL US/BUY/US$37.51/Target: US$41.00) 1QFY20: Results in line but 2QFY20 revenue guidance below estimates. Update Tencent (700 HK/BUY/HK$372.40/Target: HK$437.00) 2Q19 results preview: Recovery in games growth, upgrade to BUY. HONG KONG Sector Property 1H19 results preview: On track to meeting sales targets; prefer SHKP as top BUY. TRADERS’ CORNER ZTE (763 HK): Trading Buy Range CM Bank (3968 HK): Trading Buy Range
- Charles Wong Kok Min
- Joyce Chan Pui Lai
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Michael Cheung Ho Bun
- Neo Chen Wentao
- Sandra Huang Jieqiong
Greater China Daily: Friday, April, 26, 2019
KEY HIGHLIGHTS CHINA Sector Healthcare GPO spillover effect appears in more provinces. Results Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH/BUY/Rmb7.23/Target: Rmb8.10) 2018: Strong results, in line; challenging year ahead. TAL Education Group (TAL US/BUY/US$34.42/Target: US$43.00) 4QFY19: Earnings beat on operating leverage; diversified revenue streams. Wisdom Education International Holdings (6068 HK/BUY/HK$4.35/Target: HK$5.00) 1HFY19: Results in line; ambitious target for enrolment growth, upgrade to BUY. Update China Molybdenum (3993 HK/HOLD/HK$3.16/Target: HK$3.08) 1Q19 profit warning on ...
Greater China Daily: Friday, January, 25, 2019
KEY HIGHLIGHTS CHINA Results TAL Education Group (TAL US/HOLD/US$31.22/Target: US$30.00) 3QFY19: Earnings beat on operating leverage; concerns on slowing expansion remain. TRADERS’ CORNER Standard Chartered (2888 HK): Trading Buy Range Lonking (3339 HK): Trading Buy Range
TAL EDUCATION GROUP sees an upgrade to Slightly Positive due to a better fundamental star rating
The general evaluation of TAL EDUCATION GROUP (US), a company active in the Personal Products & Services industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 3 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date September 15, 2020, the closing price was USD 75.44 and its potential was estimated at USD 91.18.