LUN H. Lundbeck A/S

Lundbeck announces retirement of Anders Gersel Pedersen, EVP and Head of Research and Development

Lundbeck announces retirement of Anders Gersel Pedersen, EVP and Head of Research and Development

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EN
04/12/2018

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Reports on H. Lundbeck A/S

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK48.00) - Focus on Vyepti sales

We forecast Q1 sales c0.5% above consensus and an adj. EBITDA margin of 31.3%. We expect the strategic brands sales to rise by 18.3% YOY, including Vyepti sales of DKK913m (c2.2% above consensus). We forecast unchanged 2025 guidance for CER figures. From the pipeline, the FDA AdCom for Rexulti in PTSD is still unscheduled and the PROCEED trial has recently been expanded to additional IV doses. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to 48 (56).

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - PTSD decision getting closer

Lundbeck reached the high-end of its full-year guidance, with Q4 sales of DKK5,541m and an adj. EBITDA margin of 20.8%. Strategic brands’ Q4 sales were slightly below our forecast and consensus, with only Brintellix beating our estimate. The 2025 guidance is for sales growth of 7–10% at constant exchange rates (CER) and adj. EBITDA growth of 5–11% at CER. We view the upcoming Rexulti PTSD FDA Advisory Committee Meeting (due in H1) as the next share-price catalyst. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 ...

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Solid Q4e; PTSD decision ahead

We forecast Q4 sales of DKK5,631m (consensus DKK5,629m) and adj. EBITDA of DKK1,155m (consensus DKK1,147m). For strategic brands, we estimate sales of DKK4,493m (c1.1% above consensus). We expect 2025 guidance for growth of CER sales of 3–6% and adj. EBITDA of 3–7%. We believe investor focus will be on the upcoming Rexulti PTSD FDA Advisory Committee Meeting (ADCOM), due in H1. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Focusing on strategic brands

The Q3 sales beat reflected a strong result in strategic brands, leading to an outperformance on adj. EBITDA. We expect continued momentum in strategic brands, with Q4e sales growth of 17.4% YOY. The 2024 guidance was narrowed for CER revenue growth of 12–14% (previously 11–14%) and CER adj. EBITDA growth of 17–20% (15–20%) and we find the top end of the guidance reachable. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Strategic brands in focus

Lundbeck recently released company consensus for Q3. Our revenue forecast of DKK5,502m is c0.5% above, driven by strategic brands (we estimate 21.6% revenue growth YOY), and we forecast an adj. EBITDA margin of 29.4% (consensus 28.9%). We expect the 2024 guidance for 11–14% revenue growth and 15–20% adj. EBITDA growth at CER to be unchanged. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.

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