LUN H. Lundbeck A/S

Lundbeck realized 12% growth in revenue (local currencies) and 56% growth in EPS in 9M 2018. Guidance for FY2018 raised

Lundbeck realized 12% growth in revenue (local currencies) and 56% growth in EPS in 9M 2018. Guidance for FY2018 raised

Valby, Nov. 07, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Financial report for the period 1 January to 30 September 2018

Lundbeck realized 12% growth in revenue (local currencies)

 and 56% growth in EPS in 9M 2018. Guidance for FY2018 raised

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Revenue reached DKK 13,921 million in the first nine months of 2018 representing an increase of 8% (12% in local currencies) compared to the same period in 2017
    • Revenue of Abilify Maintena® increased 18% to DKK 1,180 million (23% in local currencies)
    • Revenue of Brintellix®/Trintellix® increased 28% to DKK 1,543 million (36% in local currencies)
    • Revenue of Northera® increased 7% to DKK 1,282 million (16% in local currency)
    • Revenue of Onfi® increased 20% to DKK 2,669 million (30% in local currency)
    • Revenue of Rexulti® increased 32% to DKK 1,204 million (42% in local currencies)
    • Revenue in North America increased 2% to DKK 8,072 million (10% in local currencies)
    • Revenue in International Markets increased 5% to DKK 2,806 million (13% in local currencies)
    • Revenue in Europe increased 7% to DKK 2,269 million (7% in local currencies)
  • EBIT increased to DKK 4,453 million compared to DKK 3,476 million in the first nine months of 2017 and the EBIT margin reached 32.0% compared to 27.1% in 2017
  • EPS grew 56% to DKK 16.38 in the period compared to DKK 10.49 the year before
  • Free cash flow reached DKK 2,277 million representing an increase of 77%, and the net cash position improved to DKK 5,356 million compared to DKK 2,208 million for the same period last year
  • Trintellix submitted for approval in Japan and new data added to the U.S. labelling for Trintellix demonstrated superiority over escitalopram in improving SSRI-Induced sexual dysfunction in patients with depression
  • On 25 October, it was announced that Lu AF35700 showed similar anti-psychotic effects but not statistical superiority versus conventional therapy on the primary endpoint (change in Total PANSS) in patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS). No new trials in TRS will be initiated
  • Three projects have moved into phase I (Lu AF76432, Lu AF28996 and Lu AF82422) and foliglurax has entered the phase II pipeline in the first nine months of the year
  • The financial guidance for 2018 is raised. Lundbeck now expects revenue to reach DKK 17.7 - 18.1 billion and profit from operations (EBIT) to reach DKK 5.1 - 5.4 billion for 2018 compared to previously DKK 17.6 - 18.0 billion and DKK 4.9 - 5.2 billion, respectively

In connection with the financial report, Lundbeck’s President and CEO Deborah Dunsire said:

The continued solid growth in revenue and profitability delivered by the company this year is commendable. Lundbeck remains on track to deliver the best-ever financial results creating the foundation to work to strengthen the pipeline for future growth.”  

DKK million 9M 2018  9M 2017 Growth
Reported Revenue 13,921 12,842 8%
Reported EBIT 4,453 3,476 28%
Reported EPS 16.38 10.49 56%
Reported EBIT margin 32.0% 27.1% -
       
Core Revenue* 13,921 12,842 8%
Core EBIT* 5,227 3,946 32%
Core EPS* 19.96 12.69 57%
Core EBIT margin* 37.5% 30.7% -

       *For definition of the measures “Core Revenue”, “Core EBIT” and “Core EPS”, see note 9 Core reporting

Attachment

EN
07/11/2018

Underlying

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Reports on H. Lundbeck A/S

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK48.00) - Focus on Vyepti sales

We forecast Q1 sales c0.5% above consensus and an adj. EBITDA margin of 31.3%. We expect the strategic brands sales to rise by 18.3% YOY, including Vyepti sales of DKK913m (c2.2% above consensus). We forecast unchanged 2025 guidance for CER figures. From the pipeline, the FDA AdCom for Rexulti in PTSD is still unscheduled and the PROCEED trial has recently been expanded to additional IV doses. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to 48 (56).

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - PTSD decision getting closer

Lundbeck reached the high-end of its full-year guidance, with Q4 sales of DKK5,541m and an adj. EBITDA margin of 20.8%. Strategic brands’ Q4 sales were slightly below our forecast and consensus, with only Brintellix beating our estimate. The 2025 guidance is for sales growth of 7–10% at constant exchange rates (CER) and adj. EBITDA growth of 5–11% at CER. We view the upcoming Rexulti PTSD FDA Advisory Committee Meeting (due in H1) as the next share-price catalyst. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 ...

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Solid Q4e; PTSD decision ahead

We forecast Q4 sales of DKK5,631m (consensus DKK5,629m) and adj. EBITDA of DKK1,155m (consensus DKK1,147m). For strategic brands, we estimate sales of DKK4,493m (c1.1% above consensus). We expect 2025 guidance for growth of CER sales of 3–6% and adj. EBITDA of 3–7%. We believe investor focus will be on the upcoming Rexulti PTSD FDA Advisory Committee Meeting (ADCOM), due in H1. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Focusing on strategic brands

The Q3 sales beat reflected a strong result in strategic brands, leading to an outperformance on adj. EBITDA. We expect continued momentum in strategic brands, with Q4e sales growth of 17.4% YOY. The 2024 guidance was narrowed for CER revenue growth of 12–14% (previously 11–14%) and CER adj. EBITDA growth of 17–20% (15–20%) and we find the top end of the guidance reachable. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Strategic brands in focus

Lundbeck recently released company consensus for Q3. Our revenue forecast of DKK5,502m is c0.5% above, driven by strategic brands (we estimate 21.6% revenue growth YOY), and we forecast an adj. EBITDA margin of 29.4% (consensus 28.9%). We expect the 2024 guidance for 11–14% revenue growth and 15–20% adj. EBITDA growth at CER to be unchanged. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.

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