NHY Norsk Hydro ASA

Norsk Hydro: Hydro announces new date for Q1 reporting

Norsk Hydro: Hydro announces new date for Q1 reporting

Hydro announces that the new date for Q1 2019 reporting will be June 5, 2019. The original date was April 30.

The delayed Q1 2019 reporting date is a result of the previously communicated cyber attack, impacting the availability of certain systems and data to produce the quarterly report.

The revised date is conditional upon the planned timeline for restoring operational and reporting systems. 

Investor contact

Stian Hasle



Press contact

Halvor Molland



This information is subject to the disclosure requirements pursuant to Section 5-12 the Norwegian Securities Trading Act

EN
12/04/2019

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Reports on Norsk Hydro ASA

Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - 30% below 2025e EPS consensus

We expect aluminium prices to come down with falling global energy prices, and reiterate our SELL and NOK50 target price. We are 30% below consensus on 2025e EBITDA; we do not see large enough demand to raise aluminium prices above the marginal producer’s cost, as suggested by the price appreciation in recent weeks, we believe. We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK6.2bn (results due at 7:00 CET on 24 April), driven by high hydropower production volumes in the quarter. We have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by ...

Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - Little support for 22% EPS growth

Q4 EBITDA was 13% below consensus and we consider consensus 2023–2026e EPS CAGR of 22% too high (NOK7.8 in 2026e). Norsk Hydro’s earnings are closely linked to energy prices, and we expect global energy prices to continue to decline. Annually, EPS averaged NOK2.2 in the 10 years prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with lower energy prices. We have cut our 2024-2025e aluminium price forecast by USD50/t and our Norwegian electricity price by EUR10/Mwh, and our 2024–2025e EPS by 6–9%. We reitera...

Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK55.00) - Consensus too optimistic on 2025e

We are 20% below consensus on 2025e EPS, as we believe declining global energy prices will push aluminium prices down further, and not up as consensus estimates. Non-core earnings, which we highlighted to be NOK8bn per year 12 months ago, have shrunk to NOK3.5bn, and we believe they will decline further. We have trimmed our 2024–2025e EPS by 1–2%, and reiterate our SELL and NOK55 target price. We estimate Q4 EPS of NOK0.8 and a 2023e DPS of NOK2.8 (results due at 07:00 CET on 14 February).

Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK55.00) - Low Q3 expectations met

The Q3 results were slightly below consensus. Hydro Rein is set to become a joint venture (50.1%/49.9%) with Macquarie Asset Management, in a transaction that we expect to be NPV-neutral for Norsk Hydro. We still find Norsk Hydro’s share price too lofty, as 25–35% of 2023–2025e EPS is non-core or temporary earnings items. Also, we see significant downside risk to aluminium prices given the high demand growth expectations that appear to be prevailing in the market. We have reduced our 2023–2025e ...

Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK55.00) - Softer Chinese aluminium demand

We reiterate our SELL and NOK55 target price, as in our opinion, global energy prices and softer aluminium demand from China should keep aluminium prices at USD2,200/t. We still believe the market is overlooking that 25–35% of consensus EBIT for 2024–2025 is of lower quality, as it stems from declining temporary electricity price arbitrage and government subsidies, which have a high risk of being reduced further or removed. We estimate Q3 EBITDA of NOK4.5bn.

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