TOP Topdanmark A/S

Topdanmark Interim Report for Q1-Q3 2019

Topdanmark Interim Report for Q1-Q3 2019

TOPDANMARK INTERIM REPORT FOR Q1-Q3 2019

24 October 2019, Announcement No. 13/2019

Key features

Q1-Q3 2019

  • Post-tax profit of DKK 1,115m (Q1-Q3 2018:

    DKK 1,071m)
  • EPS was DKK 12.8 (Q1-Q3 2018: DKK 12.4)
  • Combined ratio: 82.1 (Q1-Q3 2018: 84.2)
  • Combined ratio excluding run-off: 87.0

    (Q1-Q3 2018: 87.3)
  • Premiums increased by 2.4% in non-life insurance and 13.5% in life insurance
  • Profit on life insurance was DKK 291m (Q1-Q3 2018:

    DKK 182m)
  • After return on non-life insurance provisions, the investment return was DKK 51m (loss)

    (Q1-Q3 2018: DKK 132m)
  • As stated in the Q1 Report, the change in the method for calculation of the volatility adjustment (VA) in Q1 2019 had a one-off negative impact on the combined net investment return from assets and liabilities of around DKK 200m pre-tax. In Q2 2019, the VA fell by further 9bp corresponding to a negative impact on the investment return of DKK 60m.

Q3 2019

  • Post-tax profit of DKK 285m (Q3 2018: 459m)
  • EPS was DKK 3.3 (Q3 2018: 5.3)
  • Combined ratio: 84.9 (Q3 2018: 81.6)
  • Combined ratio excluding run-off: 88.6

    (Q3 2018: 84.8)
  • Premiums increased by 2.0% in non-life insurance and 36.6% in life insurance
  • Profit on life insurance was DKK 72m (Q3 2018: DKK 77m)
  • After return on non-life insurance provisions, the investment return was DKK 47m (loss) (Q3 2018: DKK 92m).

Profit forecast model for 2019

  • The assumed combined ratio for 2019 improved from 85-86 to 84-85, excluding run-off in Q4 2019
  • The assumed premium growth for non-life insurance continues to be higher than the 1.7% growth in 2018
  • The post-tax profit forecast model for 2019 is upgraded from DKK 1,250-1,350m to DKK 1,300-1,400m, excluding run-off in Q4 2019.

Assumptions for 2020

  • Premium growth in non-life on the same level as in 2019, and a combined ratio of around 90, excluding run-off, are assumed for 2020
  • Compared with the assumed combined ratio of

    89-90 excl. run-off for 2019 in the Q3 2018 report, the assumed combined ratio for 2020 is negatively impacted by 1.6pp due to lower interest rates.

Other events

  • Topdanmark has entered into a distribution agreement with Nordea
  • Topdanmark has introduced a crop insurance.

Webcast

In a Group Communications and IR Director, Steffen Heegaard, will present the financial highlights and comment on the forecast.

Conference call

A conference call will be held today at 15:30 (CET) where Peter Hermann, CEO and Lars Thykier, CFO will be available for questions based on the interim report and the webcast. The call will be conducted in English.

In order to participate in the conference call, please call:

DK dial-in-number:

SE dial-in-number:

UK dial-in-number: 4

US dial-in-number:

10-15 minutes before the conference and ask the operator to connect you to the Topdanmark conference call – or listen to the of the call.

Please direct any queries to:

Peter Hermann

Chief Executive Officer

Direct tel.:

Lars Thykier

Chief Financial Officer

Direct tel.:

Steffen Heegaard

Group Communications and IR Director

Direct tel.: , mobile tel.:

Attachment

EN
24/10/2019

Underlying

TOPTopdanmark A/S

To request access to management, click here to engage with our
partner Phoenix-IR's CorporateAccessNetwork.com

Reports on Topdanmark A/S

MarketLine Department
  • MarketLine Department
EUR 296.91
TOP TOPDANMARK A/S

Sampo plc - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances

- Track your competitors’ business structure and growth strategies.

10/21/25 October 21, 2025 1 EN
Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup
Free Trial
TOP TOPDANMARK A/S

Topdanmark (No_rec, TP: DKK) - Discontinuing coverage

Given Sampo’s pending acquisition of Topdanmark and its subsequent delisting, we have discontinued coverage. Our last published recommendation, target price, and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

10/04/24 October 4, 2024 1 EN
Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup
Free Trial
SAMPO Sampo Oyj Class...
TRYG TRYG A/S ... (+4)

Consolidating forces

A benign quarter without major weather events should lead to strong YOY improvement in earnings across the Nordic non-life sector, helped by favourable financial markets and the ongoing momentum from multiple rounds of premium price rises. Industry consolidation continued with the acquisition of Topdanmark by Sampo, set to be completed by 18 October. The transaction should lead to increased consolidation, promoting rational market behaviour in Denmark. Based on a growing discount to peers, we hi...

SAMPO SAMPO OYJ CLASS A
TRYG TRYG A/S
TOP TOPDANMARK A/S
GJF GJENSIDIGE FORSIKRING ASA
10/03/24 October 3, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Fredrik Flørnes Støle
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
TOP TOPDANMARK A/S

Weaker underlying outlook

Q2: Weak underlying, but results saved by financials. Adj. EPS down by 4.7%, 1.6% and 2.6%, for '24-26e. Expect share to continue tracking Sampo.

07/14/24 July 14, 2024 1 EN
Håkon Astrup
  • Håkon Astrup
Free Trial
TOP TOPDANMARK A/S

Topdanmark (Hold, TP: DKK371.00) - Continued repricing focus

PTP was 19% higher in Q2 YOY as rebounding financial markets helped offset a soft underwriting result. High YOY insurance revenue growth was offset by a sizeable number of large claims and continued high motor-claims frequencies, for which the company continues to raise prices. We have made limited 2025–2026e EPS changes, and reiterate our HOLD. We have raised our target price to DKK371(366), in line with the bid from Sampo.

07/12/24 July 12, 2024 1 EN

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch