Geopolitical alignment becomes essential for internationally exposed firms amid new trade paradigm

LONDON, Dec. 11, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The international trade landscape was altered beyond recognition in 2025, a year defined by U.S. tariff deals. As geopolitical dynamics shift, countries’ national security alignments have become central to risk management and long-term resilience for globally active businesses. The latest Political Risk Index by Willis, a WTW business (NASDAQ: WTW), aims to distinguish risk signals from noise and help globalised firms prepare for the emerging era of tariff geopolitics.

The report, titled "Mapping the new geopolitics of tariff deals" reveals how the U.S. is requiring trading partners to align with its national security interests or face punitive economic barriers. Through a series of maps, this report attempts to build a picture of the new trade landscape that will emerge as a result.

Drawing on research from Oxford Analytica’s country experts, the report finds that:

• Tariff deals are building a “moat” around the West. Many tariff deals require signatories to align with U.S. national security policies on key issues, most frequently export controls (included in 13 deals) followed by supply chain security (10 deals), enhanced rules of origin and trans-shipment monitoring. While these measures will take time to be implemented, companies may increasingly find it difficult to adapt to trade barriers by re-routing supply chains.
• Tariff deals are raising the stakes in East-West geopolitical competition. The 2025 deals appear to cement some surprising geopolitical realignments:
  • Vietnam, Cambodia and Ecuador have pivoted towards the Western bloc, agreeing to enforce U.S. export controls to secure deal terms.
  • Argentina secured a bailout and an aligned partner deal following a pivot to the political right.
  • However, major economies, including Brazil, India and South Africa, have yet to sign deals, making their future alignment uncertain, which could have significant consequences for foreign companies operating in these countries.
  • In addition, many tariff deals contain poison pill provisions that may lead to deal signatories being suddenly ejected from the Western moat.
• Tariff pressures have so far produced limited retaliation. While many countries retaliated against the tariffs introduced in President Trump’s first term, only two countries (China and Canada) have retaliated significantly against the 2025 tariffs. Both countries are still retaliating.
• Tariffs are often seen through a competitive lens. While initial reactions to tariffs in countries such as Brazil and Indonesia ranged from public outrage to diplomatic concern, many governments and business communities quickly shifted to competition: seeking deals that put their tariff rates below those of regional rivals, which could attract export-oriented investment.
  
  
  
  

The study also finds that the West is losing the contest for influence in Africa. With the non-renewal of key trade preferences and reductions in U.S. aid, many African countries appear to be realigning towards Russia and other non-Western partners – a trend with major implications for companies’ frontier-market strategies.

Sam Wilkin, director of political risk analytics at Willis, said: “Companies have been astonishingly adept at adjusting their supply chains to fast-changing tariff rates. But companies also need to manage the geopolitics of tariffs. Our latest research highlights how tariffs can no longer be treated as a compliance or operational issue but need to be embedded at the core of strategic planning.”

The complete report can be downloaded .     

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