SPDR S&P Biotech ETF

  • TickerXBI
  • ISINUS78464A8707
  • ExchangeNYSE Arca
  • SectorNonequity Investment Instruments
  • CountryUnited States
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Yet Vigilant In our 6/8/20 ETF Pathfinder we noted a bullish outlook was warranted, but that equities were extended and that we would be buyers on a pullback. Now that markets have pulled back, the question is whether this is just a countertrend move within the ongoing bullish trend, or the beginning of a bigger correction. For now we remain bullish and believe this to be a buyable pullback. Below we highlight key developments we are watching, including what it would take for us to alter our bullish outlook. · What Would Alter Our Bullish Outlook? Key support levels we are wa...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Despite Concerns, Tape Remains Bullish In our 4/6/20 ETF Pathfinder we highlighted key S&P 500 pivot levels which included support at 2447-2455 and resistance at 2538 & also the 2575-2642 zone. We noted eventual breakouts or breakdowns above or below these levels would tell us where equities were likely headed next. The S&P 500 broke above these resistance levels on April 6 meaning the bulls were in control and equities were headed higher -- which is where we continue to be today. Despite the bulls still being in control, we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback as there continues to be...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Developments Continue; Downgrading Communications Bullish developments continue to flood the market, leading us to believe we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Bullish Arguments Flooding the Market. Major global and US indexes (SPY, RSP, QQQ, EEM, EFA, EUFN, ACWI, Europe, Japan, etc.) are making bullish inflections. Serial laggards such as retail (XRT) and biotech (IBB, XBI) appear to be bottoming. Cyclical Sectors are breaking topside resistance (e.g., XLK, XLF, XLI). Broad commodities (DJP) appear to be bottoming. All of these developments are consistent with b...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Positive outlook intact Overall we remain positive on U.S. and foreign equities. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to this conclusion: • Broadening yield curve inversions = recession? The more pronounced yield curve inversion (3M/10Y and 1Y/10Y) is unsettling and is a concern of ours. At the same time we believe it does not automatically equate to a recession in the near-term, and lower yields may actually serve to stimulate the economy. Additionally, high yield spreads are not suggestive of worsening economic conditions... see chart below and page 2. • Small vs. large-...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

The S&P 500 managed to close above the key 2,817 resistance level last week as the recovery from 4Q2018 continues. We would like to see a more decisive upside move and for the index stay above this level for a few more days before calling it an official breakout. Overall we remain positive and continue to believe a “buy the dip” strategy is warranted. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to our positive outlook: • An offensive Sector shift: We are upgrading Materials (RTM, XLB) to market weight as RS continues to stabilize. Additionally, we are downgrading Health Care (RYH) t...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Despite Concerns, Tape Remains Bullish In our 4/6/20 ETF Pathfinder we highlighted key S&P 500 pivot levels which included support at 2447-2455 and resistance at 2538 & also the 2575-2642 zone. We noted eventual breakouts or breakdowns above or below these levels would tell us where equities were likely headed next. The S&P 500 broke above these resistance levels on April 6 meaning the bulls were in control and equities were headed higher -- which is where we continue to be today. Despite the bulls still being in control, we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback as there continues to be...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Developments Continue; Downgrading Communications Bullish developments continue to flood the market, leading us to believe we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Bullish Arguments Flooding the Market. Major global and US indexes (SPY, RSP, QQQ, EEM, EFA, EUFN, ACWI, Europe, Japan, etc.) are making bullish inflections. Serial laggards such as retail (XRT) and biotech (IBB, XBI) appear to be bottoming. Cyclical Sectors are breaking topside resistance (e.g., XLK, XLF, XLI). Broad commodities (DJP) appear to be bottoming. All of these developments are consistent with b...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Positive outlook intact Overall we remain positive on U.S. and foreign equities. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to this conclusion: • Broadening yield curve inversions = recession? The more pronounced yield curve inversion (3M/10Y and 1Y/10Y) is unsettling and is a concern of ours. At the same time we believe it does not automatically equate to a recession in the near-term, and lower yields may actually serve to stimulate the economy. Additionally, high yield spreads are not suggestive of worsening economic conditions... see chart below and page 2. • Small vs. large-...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

The S&P 500 managed to close above the key 2,817 resistance level last week as the recovery from 4Q2018 continues. We would like to see a more decisive upside move and for the index stay above this level for a few more days before calling it an official breakout. Overall we remain positive and continue to believe a “buy the dip” strategy is warranted. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to our positive outlook: • An offensive Sector shift: We are upgrading Materials (RTM, XLB) to market weight as RS continues to stabilize. Additionally, we are downgrading Health Care (RYH) t...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

S&P 500 at new all-time highs with uptrend intact Risk-on. The S&P 500 has surpassed the January all-time high, staying above this level for over a week. What's more important is the 5-month uptrend remains intact and cyclical/risk-on areas are reasserting their leadership status. Think technology, discretionary, and biotech/medical devices - all current overweights. At the same time, defensive areas have petered out in terms of relative strength, exactly what we want to see in a healthy bull market. Notwithstanding normal countertrend pullbacks, we expect to stay in the bull camp as long as ...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Yet Vigilant In our 6/8/20 ETF Pathfinder we noted a bullish outlook was warranted, but that equities were extended and that we would be buyers on a pullback. Now that markets have pulled back, the question is whether this is just a countertrend move within the ongoing bullish trend, or the beginning of a bigger correction. For now we remain bullish and believe this to be a buyable pullback. Below we highlight key developments we are watching, including what it would take for us to alter our bullish outlook. · What Would Alter Our Bullish Outlook? Key support levels we are wa...

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