Select Sector SPDR-Energy

  • TickerXLE
  • ISINUS81369Y5069
  • ExchangeNYSE Arca
  • SectorNonequity Investment Instruments
  • CountryUnited States
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Outlook Warranted; Offensive Sector Shift In our 5/18/20 ETF Pathfinder we saw the S&P 500 as consolidating and, until there was a resolution below support or above resistance, our outlook was neutral. By the end of that week, the S&P 500 had sustained a break above 2,935-2,955 resistance which set the stage for a new leg higher. Despite being short-term extended, the combination of rotations into cyclical Sectors, bottoming interest rates, narrowing high yield spreads, small- and mid-caps outperforming, commodities bottoming, and US dollar weakness leads us to believe a bullish outlo...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Still Searching For A Bottom In our last ETF Pathfinder (3/9/20) we noted key support levels on the Nasdaq Composite (8,264), S&P 500 (2,830-2,855), and Dow Jones (24,681) which represented our new lines in the sand. We said we would be constructive as long as these levels held, but that we would reduce exposure on breakdowns as that would likely usher-in additional downside. Breakdowns and additional downside is what we got, and these indexes are now 17-22% lower. That leaves equities still searching for a bottom. · What We Are Watching For. The trend remains down and we have yet to...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. • Bent, Not Broken. Several key areas of the market have deteriorated, however none are truly breaking ...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Add Exposure to Small-Caps; Upgrading Health Care Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps (IWM) is the latest positive development underpinning our belief that we are in the early stages of a broad-based market advance. • Small-Caps. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is decisively breaking topside $160 resistance and is making the long-awaited bullish RS reversal -- add exposure. Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps helped ignite the broad market rally that began in early 2016, and we believe today's market is poised for a similar outcome... see chart below. • Health Care. We are up...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives The current market scenario is not what we would consider “perfect” for a bull market, but it certainly has most of the necessary ingredients. Therefore, we continue to believe we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives. Cyclical Sectors continue to show price and RS improvement while Defensive Sectors deteriorate, a favorable backdrop for a bull market. We are upgrading Industrials (XLI, RGI) to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections, and we are downgrading Staples (XLP), Util...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. • Bent, Not Broken. Several key areas of the market have deteriorated, however none are truly breaking ...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Add Exposure to Small-Caps; Upgrading Health Care Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps (IWM) is the latest positive development underpinning our belief that we are in the early stages of a broad-based market advance. • Small-Caps. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is decisively breaking topside $160 resistance and is making the long-awaited bullish RS reversal -- add exposure. Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps helped ignite the broad market rally that began in early 2016, and we believe today's market is poised for a similar outcome... see chart below. • Health Care. We are up...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives The current market scenario is not what we would consider “perfect” for a bull market, but it certainly has most of the necessary ingredients. Therefore, we continue to believe we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives. Cyclical Sectors continue to show price and RS improvement while Defensive Sectors deteriorate, a favorable backdrop for a bull market. We are upgrading Industrials (XLI, RGI) to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections, and we are downgrading Staples (XLP), Util...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Developments Continue; Downgrading Communications Bullish developments continue to flood the market, leading us to believe we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Bullish Arguments Flooding the Market. Major global and US indexes (SPY, RSP, QQQ, EEM, EFA, EUFN, ACWI, Europe, Japan, etc.) are making bullish inflections. Serial laggards such as retail (XRT) and biotech (IBB, XBI) appear to be bottoming. Cyclical Sectors are breaking topside resistance (e.g., XLK, XLF, XLI). Broad commodities (DJP) appear to be bottoming. All of these developments are consistent with b...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Add Exposure to Emerging Markets, Retail Several recent positive developments are encouraging and incrementally improve our outlook, however there are several other items on our bull market wish list that have yet to be checked off. Our outlook remains neutral. • EM, Retail Bottoming. Bullish price and RS reversals in EM (EEM) is a very positive signal for the broad market as it indicates improving risk appetites. After all, it is one of the riskiest asset classes. Bottoming price and RS in Retail (XRT) is also a very positive signal as it shows the consumer is alive and well... see charts b...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Outlook Warranted; Offensive Sector Shift In our 5/18/20 ETF Pathfinder we saw the S&P 500 as consolidating and, until there was a resolution below support or above resistance, our outlook was neutral. By the end of that week, the S&P 500 had sustained a break above 2,935-2,955 resistance which set the stage for a new leg higher. Despite being short-term extended, the combination of rotations into cyclical Sectors, bottoming interest rates, narrowing high yield spreads, small- and mid-caps outperforming, commodities bottoming, and US dollar weakness leads us to believe a bullish outlo...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Still Searching For A Bottom In our last ETF Pathfinder (3/9/20) we noted key support levels on the Nasdaq Composite (8,264), S&P 500 (2,830-2,855), and Dow Jones (24,681) which represented our new lines in the sand. We said we would be constructive as long as these levels held, but that we would reduce exposure on breakdowns as that would likely usher-in additional downside. Breakdowns and additional downside is what we got, and these indexes are now 17-22% lower. That leaves equities still searching for a bottom. · What We Are Watching For. The trend remains down and we have yet to...

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