SPDR S&P Transportation ETF

  • TickerXTN
  • ISINUS78464A5323
  • ExchangeNYSE Arca
  • SectorNonequity Investment Instruments
  • CountryUnited States
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives The current market scenario is not what we would consider “perfect” for a bull market, but it certainly has most of the necessary ingredients. Therefore, we continue to believe we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives. Cyclical Sectors continue to show price and RS improvement while Defensive Sectors deteriorate, a favorable backdrop for a bull market. We are upgrading Industrials (XLI, RGI) to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections, and we are downgrading Staples (XLP), Util...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Developments Continue; Downgrading Communications Bullish developments continue to flood the market, leading us to believe we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Bullish Arguments Flooding the Market. Major global and US indexes (SPY, RSP, QQQ, EEM, EFA, EUFN, ACWI, Europe, Japan, etc.) are making bullish inflections. Serial laggards such as retail (XRT) and biotech (IBB, XBI) appear to be bottoming. Cyclical Sectors are breaking topside resistance (e.g., XLK, XLF, XLI). Broad commodities (DJP) appear to be bottoming. All of these developments are consistent with b...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Positive outlook intact Overall we remain positive on U.S. and foreign equities. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to this conclusion: • Broadening yield curve inversions = recession? The more pronounced yield curve inversion (3M/10Y and 1Y/10Y) is unsettling and is a concern of ours. At the same time we believe it does not automatically equate to a recession in the near-term, and lower yields may actually serve to stimulate the economy. Additionally, high yield spreads are not suggestive of worsening economic conditions... see chart below and page 2. • Small vs. large-...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Market remains indecisive • Outlook and breadth indicators are mixed: Last week's retest of the S&P 500's 200-day moving average has held, a critical support level, but a long-term breadth indicator has shown deterioration. That is, during the recent retest, a higher percentage of S&P 500 constituents closed below their respective 200-day moving average... see below. Other indicators such as the Discretionary/Staples ratio, Advance-Decline lines, and the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average remain constructive, which collectively provide a mixed outlook. We continue to expec...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Volatility prevails • Long-term bullish outlook remains. In our last ETF Pathfinder, we voiced our expectation for a continued period of heightened volatility marked by backing and filling. We also noted important levels on the S&P 500 that we are watching - the recent high of ~2,873 as the top-end of the range, and the recent low of ~2,532 as the bottom-end. Nothing has changed regarding these expectations, and we expect markets will continue to consolidate within the aforementioned range. • Positive breadth divergences are evident. Helping support our long-term bullish outlook is the Discr...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives The current market scenario is not what we would consider “perfect” for a bull market, but it certainly has most of the necessary ingredients. Therefore, we continue to believe we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives. Cyclical Sectors continue to show price and RS improvement while Defensive Sectors deteriorate, a favorable backdrop for a bull market. We are upgrading Industrials (XLI, RGI) to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections, and we are downgrading Staples (XLP), Util...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Developments Continue; Downgrading Communications Bullish developments continue to flood the market, leading us to believe we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Bullish Arguments Flooding the Market. Major global and US indexes (SPY, RSP, QQQ, EEM, EFA, EUFN, ACWI, Europe, Japan, etc.) are making bullish inflections. Serial laggards such as retail (XRT) and biotech (IBB, XBI) appear to be bottoming. Cyclical Sectors are breaking topside resistance (e.g., XLK, XLF, XLI). Broad commodities (DJP) appear to be bottoming. All of these developments are consistent with b...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Positive outlook intact Overall we remain positive on U.S. and foreign equities. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to this conclusion: • Broadening yield curve inversions = recession? The more pronounced yield curve inversion (3M/10Y and 1Y/10Y) is unsettling and is a concern of ours. At the same time we believe it does not automatically equate to a recession in the near-term, and lower yields may actually serve to stimulate the economy. Additionally, high yield spreads are not suggestive of worsening economic conditions... see chart below and page 2. • Small vs. large-...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Market remains indecisive • Outlook and breadth indicators are mixed: Last week's retest of the S&P 500's 200-day moving average has held, a critical support level, but a long-term breadth indicator has shown deterioration. That is, during the recent retest, a higher percentage of S&P 500 constituents closed below their respective 200-day moving average... see below. Other indicators such as the Discretionary/Staples ratio, Advance-Decline lines, and the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average remain constructive, which collectively provide a mixed outlook. We continue to expec...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Volatility prevails • Long-term bullish outlook remains. In our last ETF Pathfinder, we voiced our expectation for a continued period of heightened volatility marked by backing and filling. We also noted important levels on the S&P 500 that we are watching - the recent high of ~2,873 as the top-end of the range, and the recent low of ~2,532 as the bottom-end. Nothing has changed regarding these expectations, and we expect markets will continue to consolidate within the aforementioned range. • Positive breadth divergences are evident. Helping support our long-term bullish outlook is the Discr...

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