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AFT Pharmaceuticals - Softer H1 on one-offs; recovery expected in H2

AFT Pharmaceuticals reported H125 revenues of NZ$86.7m, a 3.7% y-o-y increase, albeit lower than expected due to one-off factors such as inventory rationalisation by certain international customers and a prolonged doctors’ strike in South Korea (combined sales of NZ$10m vs NZ$18.2m in H124). These factors, along with continued R&D and marketing efforts, weighed on profits, with AFT reporting an operating loss of NZ$1.8m in H125 (profit of NZ$3.3m in H124). The strong domestic Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) market performance provided a positive offset, with 17.4% y-o-y revenue growth to NZ$76.7m and improved operating profitability. Management expects a recovery in H2 but has lowered full-year operating profit guidance to NZ$15–20m (from NZ$22–25m previously) to reflect the H1 impact. The longer-term target is to achieve NZ$300m in sales by end-FY27, driven by expansion efforts. Factoring in the new FY25 guidance, we have lowered our valuation to NZ$697.4m or NZ$6.65/share (from NZ$725.5m or NZ$6.92/share).