Report
Richard Gill, CFA

EQTEC - Operations & Valuation Update

  • Total £16 million raised in May in over-subscribed placing

    The money was raised at 1.5p per share, an 11.24% discount to the previous day’s closing price. As our previous updates have highlighted, EQTEC has over the past few months developed a significant pipeline of projects. Between July 2020 and February 2021, non-contracted tender opportunities worth a total potential of €316 million were added for a total potential pipeline value of €657 million. With this in mind, the company will use the proceeds of the fund raise to take full advantage of a number of near-term opportunities and to prepare itself for further long-term growth.

  • Q2 trading update confirmed that progress continues in 2021

    A July trading update confirmed that EQTEC has continued to make progress across its pipeline of opportunities in the three months to end-June. The company also confirmed that it is on track to meet its target of achieving c.€15 million of revenues for 2021 and a maiden year of profitability. This assumes that revenues are weighted towards the second half of the year as deals reach financial close and fees are received.

  • Forecasts revised to consider pipeline acceleration & target price raised

    Following the fundraise we have revised our expectations for the 2021 to 2023 financial years and used these as a basis for providing a valuation for the company. In 2023, as more projects are progressed and the substantial non-contracted pipeline is translated into commercial success, we are now looking for revenues to more than double to €149.3 million (up from €118.5 million previously) and EBITDA to grow by 142% to €36.6 million. Using our updated 2023 forecasts, and on an EV/EBITDA multiple basis discounted back to end 2021, we derive a new target price of 3.47p per share. Conviction Buy.

Underlying
Eqtec

EQTEC is a clean energy project developer and operator. Co. identifies, develops, builds, owns and operates power plants in the UK and Ireland using clean energy technologies. Co. focuses on both large and small scale projects, providing flexibility to maximize existing land positions while diversifying development and technology risks. Co. seeks to take projects from "Greenfield" stage to "Shovel Ready" stage. Co. develops and builds projects using wood and waste wood as the sustainable fuel source. Co.'s core focus is on converting biomass or wood into clean electricity and heat. Co. has one operating segment: power generation.

Provider
Align Research
Align Research

Align Research is a commissioned research company founded in November 2015 in order to provide the under-served smaller company space with high quality analysis. We have an initial focus on the natural resources sector, in which we see significant opportunities given the current once in a generation bear market, however all undervalued small caps (sub £100m) are considered by our team. Align was founded by industry professionals with decades of experience in the stock markets, headed up by highly qualified individuals from both fund management and analytical backgrounds.

Analysts
Richard Gill, CFA

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