Slovenian Weekly Regional Overview 08.10.2018 - 12.10.2018
ECONOMY:
IMF has raised Slovenian GDP growth forecast for 2018, namely from previous 4.0% to 4.5%. At the same time they have raised 2019 GDP growth forecast by 0.2 p.p. to 3.4%. Consequently they see slower growth in 2019 vs 2018, same as other forecasting institutions, domestic and foreign. True, while IMF has raised its forecasts, domestic IMAD just recently lowered it to 4.4% for 2018, thereby now IMF is slightly more optimistic than IMAD. Please also note that unemployment rate should decrease further, to 5.8% in 2018 and 5.4% in 2019.
All in all macro backdrop is and should remain favorable, providing a tailwind for Slovenian earnings and shares.True, much is dependant upon macro backdrop in Europe / namely key export partners.
CINKARNA CELJE:
PPG Industries Inc. (paint and coatings producer) said it expects flattish sales in the 3Q18 as raw-materials and logistics costs rose, demand in China softened, and sales to the auto refinish market were also weaker (inventories high) due to softer demand.
This should signal some weakness also for titanium dioxide producers, like Cinkarna Celje. True, we have expected that market peaked in 1H18 and we have already seen a reversal of share price momentum in its competitors and Cinkarna.
LUKA KOPER:
Luka Koper throughput down 1.4% YoY in 3Q18. Overall data on page 2.
Parent company revenues are still up 7% YoY, broadly in line with expectations
Cinkarna Celje dd is a Slovenia-based company, engaged in the production and marketing of titanium dioxide pigment. The Company's product range includes titanium dioxide and sulfuric acid; titanium and zinc sheets; zinc wire, alloys and anodes; printing plates, links and graphic preparations, as well as powder, rubber and anticorrosion coatings. Additionally, it offers construction and joint sealants; facade plasters; mortars and screeds; decorative plasters; protection, waterproofing and quick bonding agents; cement additives; copper and sulfur fungicides, as well as other chemical products. The Company operates through one wholly owned subsidiary, Cinkarna-Kvarc doo Tuzla, incorporated in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Luka Koper dd is a Slovenia-based company engaged in the provision of port and logistics services in the Port of Koper. The Company provides basic port services, such as sorting, palletising, sampling, protection, labelling, weighing, cleaning and other services; management of the economic zone; supporting services; cargo handling; warehousing, and integrated logistics solutions. Through its terminals, the Company handles general cargo, containers, vehicles, dry bulk cargo, liquid bulk cargo, cereals and fodder, livestock, minerals, timber, fruit, alumina, minerals and energy. The Company also offers terminals for cars, containers and roll on-roll off services. Additionally, the Company is engaged in hotel and catering services, as well as waste collection and recycling. As of December 31, 2011, the Company's subsidiaries included Luka Koper Pristan doo, Luka Koper INPO doo, Adria Terminali doo, TOC doo and Luka Koper Deutschland GmbH, as well as several associated companies.
ALTA Invest, investicijske storitve, d.d., (ALTA Invest, investment services, Inc.) is a part of ALTA Group, the biggest financial non-banking group in Slovenia. ALTA Invest has around 28% market share on the domestic Ljubljana Stock Exchange and has more than EUR 95m of assets under management.
Our trading advantage is our execution of large trading blocks with low impact on the market. We offer trading on several platforms on numerous markets, with a wide variety of financial instruments. Our advantage is also a research department, which is both sell side and buy side and has the far most extensive and regular coverage of domestic companies. We cover 9 companies on Ljubljana Stock Exchange, which is around 90% of Mcap on LJSE – and here we are practically the only local broker providing this kind of extensive and regular coverage for Slovenian companies.
A part of ALTA Group are ALTA Skladi, a mutual fund asset management company with roughly EUR 260m of asset under management. ALTA Group is also extensively involved in corporate finance projects and raised considerable assets (fixed income and equity) in the last two years for several companies.
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