Petrol 9M18: 1H18 in line to deliver 2018 expectations, new 2018-2022 strategy lifting end EBIDTA and CAPEX.
Petrol delivered solid growth in terms of volume of petroleum products and excellent 11% YoY growth in terms of merchandise sales. Note that growth of petroleum products was excellent at 1H18 but slightly disappointed in crucial 3Q18. Income statement is additionally affected by Geoplin consolidation, and therefore 2018 estimates are hard to gauge and evaluate. EBITDA is up by 1% YoY while profit is up by 11,5% to EUR 68.7m. Again while 1H18 showed Petrol is on good track to overdeliver, based on 9M18 Petrol is shy of our estimates in terms of EBITDA, but still better in terms of profit (albeit quality is lower as we need to include some impairments booked in 2017 etc.) This by itself would not warrant major changes to our estimates and valuation, however a new strategy did (net income CAGR of 7.3% by 2022), as well as lower net debt position. This strategy entails higher level of EBITDA (steaming from newer business lines), but also higher level of CAPEX. New target price is set to EUR 427 per share which still warrants a buy recommendation.
Petrol Ljubljana. Petrol dd Ljubljana is a Slovenia-based company engaged in the provision of oil and other energy products. The Company operates through two segments, Oil and Merchandise sales and Energy activities. The Oil and Merchandise sales segment consists of sale of oil and petroleum products, and sale of supplementary merchandise comprised of automotive products, foodstuffs, accessories, tobacco, lottery products, coupons and cards. The Energy activities segment consists of sale and distribution of gas; generation, sale and distribution of electricity and heat; energy consumption projects and comprehensive energy supply projects, and environment activities. As of December 31, 2011, it operated a number of subsidiaries based in Slovenia, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia, among others. On February 11, 2013, the Company acquired a 51% stake in Instalacija doo. On May 10, 2013, the Company acquired a 100% stake in Nafta Geoterm doo.
ALTA Invest, investicijske storitve, d.d., (ALTA Invest, investment services, Inc.) is a part of ALTA Group, the biggest financial non-banking group in Slovenia. ALTA Invest has around 28% market share on the domestic Ljubljana Stock Exchange and has more than EUR 95m of assets under management.
Our trading advantage is our execution of large trading blocks with low impact on the market. We offer trading on several platforms on numerous markets, with a wide variety of financial instruments. Our advantage is also a research department, which is both sell side and buy side and has the far most extensive and regular coverage of domestic companies. We cover 9 companies on Ljubljana Stock Exchange, which is around 90% of Mcap on LJSE – and here we are practically the only local broker providing this kind of extensive and regular coverage for Slovenian companies.
A part of ALTA Group are ALTA Skladi, a mutual fund asset management company with roughly EUR 260m of asset under management. ALTA Group is also extensively involved in corporate finance projects and raised considerable assets (fixed income and equity) in the last two years for several companies.
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