A grimmer view on global risks boosting the dollar
The market appears to be taking a grimmer view of big global risk factors (Brexit, Italy, Chinese economy, and US trade policy). The relative certainty that the Fed will persist with rate hikes despite souring global growth confidence may by driving up the USD. Asian markets may be undermined by signs of weaker demand for tech goods, and a lack of bounce in Chinese assets pointing to deeper more persistent troubles in China over an above fears over US trade policy. The EUR may be responding belatedly to persistently softer growth in the Eurozone and fading confidence in its export markets. Brexit uncertainty has increased, dragging down GBP, but it could rebound quickly if the market contemplates fresh elections and a second referendum. Two-way risks remain into year end. China is rolling out policies to support its economy, the Xi-Trump meeting may ease trade tensions, US political risks may become more elevated, oil price falls may support the global economy, and US rate hike expectations may fade if US equities slide accelerates. However, a relatively robust US economy, high USA yields, and fading global confidence may drive further gains in the USD in coming weeks.
Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is licensed in Australia to provide financial services.
We produce macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange.
These reports are drawn from analysis by Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company.
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Greg Gibbs is the director and founder of Amplifying Global FX Capital. Greg began his career at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989, and in the early 1990s, he was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. In 1996, Greg joined Bankers Trust Australia on the FX sales desk covering Australian and international fund managers. In 1999, he joined Westpac Bank in New York and switched to the research side to become the bank’s first FX strategist based in New York, carving out a role covering major currencies. In 2002, he returned to Australia as senior FX strategist at RBC covering APAC currencies, and in 2006 he moved to ABN AMRO in Sydney, reuniting with many of his colleagues from Bankers Trust that were again part of a thriving full-service investment bank. Greg continued to work on at RBS in Sydney as senior FX strategist after it took over ABN AMRO in 2008. He moved to Singapore in July 2012 after the bank consolidated its FX business in Asia, and was appointed Head of APAC Markets Strategy for the bank in February 2014. In early 2015, Greg began to work on establishing his own company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, and launched its website in August 2015 after completing duties at RBS.
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