A pervasive rise in yields may propel further USD gains
We see the recent resurgence in US yields as potentially the most important driver in the coming week or longer. The resumption of the rise in US yields in the last week appears related to a more persistent underlying trend. It has been supported by a rise in commodity prices, but occurred despite weaker confidence in global growth and equity markets, suggesting it may be a more pervasive trend likely to influence other markets, rather than be influenced by them. The USD reaction to higher US yields has hardly been straightforward in the last year, but it did strengthen broadly in-line with higher yields in the last week. This may reflect troubles in the tech sector and broader geopolitical uncertainty undermining EM markets. EM equities and currencies have underperformed developed markets in the last month. Some easing in trade tensions over the weekend may help stabilise EM currencies and global equities. However, concerns over the tech sector are starting to run deeper and may prevent their recovery. If US yields rise significantly further, they may also cap equities more broadly, and undermine EM currencies, especially high yielders more susceptible to US yields. USD/JPY may initially benefit from higher US yields, but equity performance may limit gains. EUR has been able to shake off a more significant slowdown in Eurozone economy momentum to date, underpinned by capital flows from SEK, CHF and RUB, but these have likely peaked.
Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is licensed in Australia to provide financial services.
We produce macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange.
These reports are drawn from analysis by Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company.
We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.
We have two subscription levels for our research. AmpGFX members receive our AmpGFX reports. These are our flagship macroeconomic analysis produced two to three times per week. Real-Time members receive our AmpGFX reports plus Real Time Briefings. These include our specific trading strategy, including our entry levels and related orders, and additional market commentary.
Greg Gibbs is the director and founder of Amplifying Global FX Capital. Greg began his career at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989, and in the early 1990s, he was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. In 1996, Greg joined Bankers Trust Australia on the FX sales desk covering Australian and international fund managers. In 1999, he joined Westpac Bank in New York and switched to the research side to become the bank’s first FX strategist based in New York, carving out a role covering major currencies. In 2002, he returned to Australia as senior FX strategist at RBC covering APAC currencies, and in 2006 he moved to ABN AMRO in Sydney, reuniting with many of his colleagues from Bankers Trust that were again part of a thriving full-service investment bank. Greg continued to work on at RBS in Sydney as senior FX strategist after it took over ABN AMRO in 2008. He moved to Singapore in July 2012 after the bank consolidated its FX business in Asia, and was appointed Head of APAC Markets Strategy for the bank in February 2014. In early 2015, Greg began to work on establishing his own company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, and launched its website in August 2015 after completing duties at RBS.
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