RBNZ Governor Spencer thrown into the deep end
The RBNZ must revamp the monetary policy outlook this week facing a political minefield. The starting point for inflation is significantly higher than previously forecast, and it is now close to target. The exchange rate has fallen to a low since mid-2016 and is likely to place some upward pressure on inflation. The economy is sending mixed signals with booming employment growth, and a tightening labour market, but a slump in business confidence generated by political uncertainty and a weaker housing market. Retail sales have been surprisingly weak, even though consumer confidence has remained solid. The new government has proposed more spending on infrastructure and affordable housing, but wants to slow immigration and further dampen the housing market. The RBNZ may feel wary of antagonising the new government as it prepares to change the RBNZ mandate and add a monetary policy board with outside directors. You might say the new ‘Acting’ Governor Spencer, leading his first MPS and press conference, has been thrown in the deep-end. He may need to bring forward rate hike forecasts modestly and risk unwanted appreciation in the NZD.
Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is licensed in Australia to provide financial services.
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Greg Gibbs is the director and founder of Amplifying Global FX Capital. Greg began his career at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989, and in the early 1990s, he was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. In 1996, Greg joined Bankers Trust Australia on the FX sales desk covering Australian and international fund managers. In 1999, he joined Westpac Bank in New York and switched to the research side to become the bank’s first FX strategist based in New York, carving out a role covering major currencies. In 2002, he returned to Australia as senior FX strategist at RBC covering APAC currencies, and in 2006 he moved to ABN AMRO in Sydney, reuniting with many of his colleagues from Bankers Trust that were again part of a thriving full-service investment bank. Greg continued to work on at RBS in Sydney as senior FX strategist after it took over ABN AMRO in 2008. He moved to Singapore in July 2012 after the bank consolidated its FX business in Asia, and was appointed Head of APAC Markets Strategy for the bank in February 2014. In early 2015, Greg began to work on establishing his own company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, and launched its website in August 2015 after completing duties at RBS.
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