Spreads, Basis, and the USD and AUD
What does the widening in USD and AUD LIBOR/OIS spreads and higher cross-currency swap basis mean for their exchange rates? Some have argued that the implied tightening in financial conditions in their home countries may delay central bank rate hikes and undermine their exchange rates. But this seems to ignore the fact that the spread widening has placed direct upward pressure on the effective carry from holding long positions in the USD and the AUD against other currencies. We look specifically at the carry for 3mth and 2yr terms for the EUR/USD and AUD/USD. Overall, FX markets remain difficult to call, and patience is required as the market grapples with tariffs, political uncertainty, and volatile equity markets.
Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is licensed in Australia to provide financial services.
We produce macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange.
These reports are drawn from analysis by Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company.
We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.
We have two subscription levels for our research. AmpGFX members receive our AmpGFX reports. These are our flagship macroeconomic analysis produced two to three times per week. Real-Time members receive our AmpGFX reports plus Real Time Briefings. These include our specific trading strategy, including our entry levels and related orders, and additional market commentary.
Greg Gibbs is the director and founder of Amplifying Global FX Capital. Greg began his career at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989, and in the early 1990s, he was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. In 1996, Greg joined Bankers Trust Australia on the FX sales desk covering Australian and international fund managers. In 1999, he joined Westpac Bank in New York and switched to the research side to become the bank’s first FX strategist based in New York, carving out a role covering major currencies. In 2002, he returned to Australia as senior FX strategist at RBC covering APAC currencies, and in 2006 he moved to ABN AMRO in Sydney, reuniting with many of his colleagues from Bankers Trust that were again part of a thriving full-service investment bank. Greg continued to work on at RBS in Sydney as senior FX strategist after it took over ABN AMRO in 2008. He moved to Singapore in July 2012 after the bank consolidated its FX business in Asia, and was appointed Head of APAC Markets Strategy for the bank in February 2014. In early 2015, Greg began to work on establishing his own company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, and launched its website in August 2015 after completing duties at RBS.
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