Report
EUR 164.92 For Business Accounts Only

A Paradigm Shift in Egypt: Changing Path, Changing Gears...

​Govt. regulates and protects, while waiting for portfolio investors…

  • ​The official and parallel market rates are finally converging. We expect the official rate to spike temporarily as banks compete for parallel market FX flows, possibly rising to EGP19 and beyond, before stabilizing at EGP 12-13/USD in 2017, as flows rise from local and foreign sources.
  • The IMF board is set to approve Egypt’s USD 12bn financing deal on Nov 11, with Egypt receiving USD 2.75bn on Nov 15 and USD 1.25bn in H2 FY16/17. Egypt will, therefore, receive financing worth USD 9.95bn between now and end 2016, and a total of USD 16.2bn in FY16/17.
  • We expect high inflation of 22-24% in Q1 17, after which the CBE could cut interest rates by 2%, at least, and growth reaches 4%.

Provider
Arqaam Capital
Arqaam Capital

Established in 2007, Arqaam Capital is a specialist emerging markets investment bank, bringing regional and international product offerings to the emerging markets. Arqaam Capital combines international best practice with expertise in the markets in which we operate. Our primary role is to provide financial intermediation and create investment opportunities for frontier and emerging markets investors looking to invest in their own markets and abroad, as well as international investors seeking opportunities in target frontier and emerging markets. Arqaam Capital is headquartered in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), with additional offices in Libya, Lebanon, Egypt, and South Africa. 

Arqaam Capital's research platform provides the largest coverage footprint of MENA equities and one of the largest on the African continent with a total of 300 stocks under coverage. Arqaam Capital is ranked as one of the leading research providers in the region - a reflection of its broad coverage universe, its in-depth and high quality research, as well the compelling investment ideas that the team generates. The analysts closely analyze their sectors and issue in-depth company and sector research while the strategy team connects the micro with the macro, focusing on index analysis, macroeconomics and strategy research. 

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