​ Q2 GDP grew by a better than expected 1.4% y/y, however private nonoil
continues to slow (registering barely 0.1% growth), while production
cuts will push GDP growth into negative territory, we estimate.
ï‚· Imbalances remain substantial with an estimated 14.7% fiscal deficit runrate
and 8.6% current account deficit despite oil price rebound which has
not translated into positive sentiment on Tadawul – now at 5 year low.
ï‚· SAMA is the shock absorber (USD 5bn liquidity support has helped
stabilise Saibor at 235bps), but we remain concerned about the
government’s payment behavior despite the USD 1bn payment to SBG.
Established in 2007, Arqaam Capital is a specialist emerging markets investment bank, bringing regional and international product offerings to the emerging markets. Arqaam Capital combines international best practice with expertise in the markets in which we operate. Our primary role is to provide financial intermediation and create investment opportunities for frontier and emerging markets investors looking to invest in their own markets and abroad, as well as international investors seeking opportunities in target frontier and emerging markets. Arqaam Capital is headquartered in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), with additional offices in Libya, Lebanon, Egypt, and South Africa.
Arqaam Capital's research platform provides the largest coverage footprint of MENA equities and one of the largest on the African continent with a total of 300 stocks under coverage. Arqaam Capital is ranked as one of the leading research providers in the region - a reflection of its broad coverage universe, its in-depth and high quality research, as well the compelling investment ideas that the team generates. The analysts closely analyze their sectors and issue in-depth company and sector research while the strategy team connects the micro with the macro, focusing on index analysis, macroeconomics and strategy research.
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