Report
Jaap Meijer
EUR 768.26 For Business Accounts Only

MENA 2017 Outlook

Production cuts should lift oil price to c.USD 60/bbl, a level which we see as a cap as US shale oil would come back at higher levels.

Bulk of fiscal austerity should be behind us at that oil price level – KSA would only have to cut spending by another 3% of GDP vs. 9% already having been implemented in FY 15-16A (13% excl. accelerated payments to contractors).

GCC should be resilient to higher US interest rates, with fiscal deficits reduced from USD 159bn to USD 16bn, low foreign ownership, as well as lower corporate and government leverage than other EMs.

We play Egypt (OW banks, UW consumer), Lebanon (OW banks), KSA (OW insurance, banks) and UAE (OW banks, OW real estate), while we reduce our UW in Qatar (2nd phase FTSE) and add a position in Oman (reduced tail risks).


Provider
Arqaam Capital
Arqaam Capital

Established in 2007, Arqaam Capital is a specialist emerging markets investment bank, bringing regional and international product offerings to the emerging markets. Arqaam Capital combines international best practice with expertise in the markets in which we operate. Our primary role is to provide financial intermediation and create investment opportunities for frontier and emerging markets investors looking to invest in their own markets and abroad, as well as international investors seeking opportunities in target frontier and emerging markets. Arqaam Capital is headquartered in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), with additional offices in Libya, Lebanon, Egypt, and South Africa. 

Arqaam Capital's research platform provides the largest coverage footprint of MENA equities and one of the largest on the African continent with a total of 300 stocks under coverage. Arqaam Capital is ranked as one of the leading research providers in the region - a reflection of its broad coverage universe, its in-depth and high quality research, as well the compelling investment ideas that the team generates. The analysts closely analyze their sectors and issue in-depth company and sector research while the strategy team connects the micro with the macro, focusing on index analysis, macroeconomics and strategy research. 

Analysts
Jaap Meijer

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