Report

Model Portfolio Update: Three Stocks Achieve Short Sale Targets

This is an update to our model portfolio report, "37 Stocks for March 2018".

Long/Short Model Portfolio Selection Criteria
The stocks selected for our theoretical model portfolio strategies all rank highly on four key metrics, with an emphasis on proxies for cash flow growth and ROIC:

  • Relative value.
  • Operating momentum.
  • Consensus estimate revisions.
  • Fundamental quality.
Underlyings
Arista Networks Inc.

Arista Networks is engaged in providing cloud networking solutions, which consist of its Extensible Operating System (EOS), a set of network applications and its Ethernet switching and routing platforms. The programmability of EOS enable the company to create a set of software applications that address the requirements of cloud networking, including workflow automation, network visibility and analytics, and enable the company to integrate with third-party applications for virtualization, management, automation, orchestration and network services. EOS supports cloud and virtualization solutions, including VMware NSX, Microsoft System Center, OpenStack and other cloud management frameworks.

Cummins Inc.

Cummins is a diesel engine manufacturer. The company's segments include: Engine, which manufactures and markets a range of diesel and natural gas powered engines; Distribution, which is the company's primary sales, service, and support channel; Components, which supplies aftertreatment systems, turbochargers, transmissions, filtration products, electronics and fuel systems for commercial diesel and natural gas applications; Power Systems, which includes power generation, industrial, and generator technologies product lines; and New Power, which designs, manufactures, sells and supports electrified power systems ranging from fully electric to hybrid, along with components and subsystems.

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KLA Corporation

KLA is a supplier of process control and yield management solutions for the semiconductor and related nanoelectronics industries. The company provides process control and process-enabling solutions for manufacturing and testing wafers and reticles, integrated circuits, packaging, light emitting diodes, power devices, compound semiconductor devices, microelectromechanical systems, data storage, printed circuit boards (PCBs), and flat and flexible panel displays, as well as general materials research. The company has four reportable segments which include Semiconductor Process Control; Specialty Semiconductor Process; PCB, Display and Component Inspection; and Other.

Mattel Inc.

Mattel is a global children's entertainment company that engages in the design and production of toys and consumer products. The company's portfolio of owned and licensed brands and products are organized into the following categories: Dolls, which include brands such as Barbie, American Girl, Enchantimals, and Polly Pocket; Infant, Toddler, and Preschool, which include brands such as Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, Power Wheels, Fireman Sam, and Shimmer and Shine (Nickelodeon); Vehicles, which include brands such as Hot Wheels, Matchbox, CARS (Disney Pixar), and Jurassic World (NBCUniversal); Action Figures, Building Sets, and Games, which include brands such as MEGA, UNO and WWE.

Micro Focus International plc ADS

Micron Technology Inc.

Micron Technology provides memory and storage solutions. The company's portfolio of memory and storage technologies include Dynamic Random Access Memory, Not And, 3D XPoint? memory, and Not Or. The company's segments are: Compute and Networking Business, which includes memory products sold into client, cloud server, enterprise, graphics, and networking markets; Mobile Business, which includes memory products sold into smartphone and other mobile-device markets; Storage Business, which includes Solid-State Drives and component-level solutions sold into enterprise and cloud, client, and consumer storage markets; and Embedded Business, which includes memory and storage products.

Qualcomm Inc

Qualcomm is engaged in the development and commercialization of foundational technologies for the wireless industry. The company's segments include: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies, which is a developer and supplier of integrated circuits and system software based on code division multiple access, orthogonal frequency division multiple access and other technologies; Qualcomm Technology Licensing, which grants licenses or otherwise provides rights to use portions of its intellectual property portfolio, which, among other rights, include certain patent rights essential to and/or useful in the manufacture and sale of certain wireless products; and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives, which makes investments.

Zoetis Inc. Class A

Zoetis is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture and commercialization of animal health medicines, vaccines, and diagnostic products with a focus on both livestock and companion animals. The company operates in two segments: the United States and International. The company's main product categories are vaccines, anti-infectives, parasiticides, other pharmaceutical products, dermatology products, medicated feed additives, and animal health diagnostics. The company's other non-pharmaceutical product categories include nutritionals and agribusiness, as well as products and services including biodevices, genetic tests and precision livestock farming.

Provider
Ascendere Associates LLC
Ascendere Associates LLC

J. Stephen Castellano founded Ascendere Associates LLC to provide innovative equity research and investment advisory services that blends fundamental and quantitative approaches.

In general, our approach is quite simple -- we believe that return on invested capital and long-term earnings growth are key to stock valuation.  More specifically, we use powerful and unique financial models that combine publicly available data, consensus estimates and our own inputs to generate consistent and actionable stock recommendations. 

Among the services that Ascendere provides are: 1) detailed custom equity research analysis; 2) valuation scenario analysis studies; 3) long/short model portfolio strategies; 4) long and short idea generation; 5) portfolio feedback; 6) detailed fundamental financial modeling services; and 7) additional analytical consulting services. Recent financial modeling consulting clients have included several notable startups as well as BCG Platinion, the risk management division of Boston Consulting Group.  

Mr. Castellano has over 20 years of experience in equity research and related consulting work.  At PaineWebber, Warburg Dillon Read and Credit Lyonnais Securities he developed fundamental equity valuation models and conducted in-depth research on the steel and telecom services industries.  At Boston Private Value Investors, he developed quantitative models for stock idea generation and also provided general fundamental equity research coverage. Steve received a MBA from the F. W. Olin School of Business at Babson College (2005) and a BA from Oberlin College (1993). 

Mr. Castellano's career history is highlighted below:

  • Ascendere Associates, LLC (2009-Present)
  • Boston Private Value Investors , Equity Research, Equity Research Analyst (2005-2009)
  • Pyramid Research, Contract Consultant, Telecom Services (2002-2003)
  • Credit Lyonnais Securities (USA), Equity Research, Telecom Services, Vice President (2000-2001)
  • Warburg Dillon Read, Equity Research, Telecom Services, Research Associate (1999-2000)
  • PaineWebber, Equity Research, Steel and Nonferrous Metals, Research Associate, Editor (1995-1999)

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