Report
John Heagerty ...
  • Nadja Heini, CFA

Banks: Trading update and 3Q18 preview

Market volatility has moderated significantly since the beginning of the year, ceasing to be a tailwind for the banks' trading revenues in 3Q18. Despite the strong IB pipelines (announced M&A is up 40% YTD), fee pools have been affected by timing issues and are down 15-20% across the industry for the current quarter. Medium term, the outlook remains positive thanks to improving GDP growth, benign credit conditions, rising interest rates and a deregulatory focus. We have lowered our 3Q18 EPS estimates by 3% on average. Our longer term forecasts decline only modestly by 1%. C remains our top pick within the sector given its inexpensive valuation, solid earnings growth and substantial capital return program.
Underlyings
BANK OF AMERICA CORP

Bank of America is a bank and a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of banking, investing, asset management and other financial and risk management products and services. The company's segments include: Consumer Banking, which provides credit, banking and investment products and services; Global Wealth & Investment Management, which provides investment management, brokerage, banking and retirement products; Global Banking, which provides lending-related products and services, integrated working capital management and treasury solutions, and underwriting and advisory services; and Global Markets, which provides sales and trading services and research services.

Citigroup Inc.

Citigroup is a financial services holding company whose businesses provide consumers, corporations, governments and institutions with a range of financial products and services, including consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, securities brokerage, trade and securities services and wealth management. The company operates via two primary business segments: Global Consumer Banking, which provides banking services to retail customers through retail banking, Citi-branded cards and Citi retail services; and Institutional Clients Group, which includes banking and markets and securities services.

First Republic Bank

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Goldman Sachs Group is a bank holding company and financial holding company. The company is a global investment banking, securities and investment management firm that provides a range of financial services to corporations, financial institutions, governments and individuals. The company operates in four business segments: Investment Banking, which serves public and private sector clients and provides financial advisory services; Global Markets, which serves its clients who come to the company to buy and sell financial products, raise funding and manage risk; Asset Management, which provides investment services; and Consumer & Wealth Management, which provides a range of wealth advisory and banking services.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMorgan Chase is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company's segments include: Consumer and Community Banking, which provides services through bank branches, ATMs, digital (including mobile and online) and telephone banking; Corporate and Investment Bank, which consists of Banking and Markets and Securities Services, provides a suite of investment banking, market-making, prime brokerage, and treasury and securities products and services; Commercial Banking, which provides financial solutions, including lending, treasury services, investment banking and asset management products; and Asset and Wealth Management, which is engaged in investment and wealth management.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, the company advises, and originates, trades, manages and distributes capital for, governments, institutions and individuals. The company's segments are: Institutional Securities, which provides investment banking, sales and trading, lending and other services; Wealth Management, which provides brokerage and investment advisory services, financial and wealth planning services, stock plan administration services, annuity and insurance products, residential real estate loans and other lending products, banking, and retirement plan services; and Investment Management, which provides investment strategies and products.

Wells Fargo & Company

Wells Fargo & Company is a financial and a bank holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides banking, investment and mortgage products and services, as well as consumer and commercial finance. The company provides consumer financial products and services including checking and savings accounts, credit and debit cards, and automobile, student, mortgage and home equity and small business lending, as well as financial planning, private banking, investment management, and fiduciary services. The company also provides financial solutions including commercial loans and lines of credit, letters of credit, asset-based lending, trade financing, treasury management, and investment banking services.

Provider
Atlantic Equities
Atlantic Equities

Formed in 2003 by an established team from Cazenove, one of the most respected investment banks in the UK, Atlantic Equities conducts and publishes fundamental, bottom up research on mid and large cap US companies.

Atlantic provide order execution through a wide range of DMA products and algorithmic trading suites.

Analysts
John Heagerty

Nadja Heini, CFA

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