Report

SA Banks | Resilient earnings growth

We expect the big five SA banks (ABG, CPI, FSR, NED and SBK) to continue reporting earnings growth ahead of SA nominal GDP (forecast 6%) over the next three years. We expect cost containment, retail lending growth, the banks' operations outside SA and SA interest rate cuts (keeping credit impairment charges low) to support earnings growth. We also believe that the diversification of SA banks' corporate lending should result in benign credit write-offs compared to previous cycles. In our view, ABSA (ABG), Nedbank (NED) and Standard Bank (SBK) remain undervalued using sustainable ROEs. We expect that ABG will continue to be more aggressive in growing credit market share than its peers.
Underlyings
Absa Group Limited

Barclays Africa Group is engaged in provision of personal and business banking, credit cards, corporate and investment banking, wealth and investment management as well as bancassurance. Co. operates in three business segments; Retail and Business Banking (RBB) delivers targeted solutions to individuals and small businesses; Corporate, Investment Bank and Wealth operates a global model, leveraging their offerings, tapping into global expertise to provide comprehensive solutions across borders; and Financial Services cluster enhances the RBB customer and client value proposition with financial solutions.

Capitec Bank Holdings Limited

Capitec Bank a bank controlling company.Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in providing banking services and provides savings, transacting and un–secured lending products to individuals. Co. provides a nationwide network of 668 branches and 3,418 Automated Teller Machines at which clients can gain access to its banking services. As of Feb 28 2015, Co.'s total assets amounted to R53 916 475,000.

FirstRand Limited

FirstRand is a holding company, engaged in providing banking, insurance and investment products and services to retail, commercial, corporate and public sector customers. Co.'s segment comprised of: First National Bank (FNB), which is engaged in providing transactional and deposit-taking, card acquiring, credit facilities and FNB distribution channels; Rand Merchant Bank, which is engaged in providing advisory, financing, trading, corporate banking and principal investing solutions; and WesBank, which is engaged in providing vehicle and asset finance in the retail, commercial and corporate segments operating through alliances and JVs with motor manufacturers, suppliers and dealer groups.

Nedbank Group Limited

Nedbank is a bank holding company, engaged in providing a range of banking and financial services. Co.'s business operations include: Nedbank Capital, which provides investment banking solutions; Nedbank Corporate, which provides lending, deposit-taking, transactional banking and commercial property finance; Nedbank Business Banking, which provides Commercial banking solutions for small-to medium-sized businesses; Nedbank Retail, which provides financial solutions for individuals, startups and small businesses; and Nedbank Wealth, which offers wealth management, asset management and insurance solutions. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had total assets of R809,313,000,000.

Standard Bank Group Limited

Standard Bank Group is a financial services company. Co.'s business units include: Personal & Business Banking, which comprised of Mortgage lending, Instalment sale and finance leases, Card products, Transactional and lending products, and Bancassurance and wealth; Corporate & Investment Banking, which comprised of Global markets, Transactional Products and services, Investment banking, and Real estate and principal investment management; Liberty, which include life insurance and investment management activities; and Central and other, which include the Tutuwa initiative, group hedging activities, group capital instruments and group surplus capital and strategic acquisition costs.

Provider
Avior Capital Markets
Avior Capital Markets

Avior is a globally recognised capital markets research and trading firm, with the broadest research coverage within the region, with 100+ SA and 20+ SSA companies under coverage. Avior services clients from offices in London, Cape Town and Johannesburg.

Our research quality is consistently recognised in local and global surveys, with 18 analysts currently rated in their respective sectors (FM 2017). Value add through in-depth, innovative, high quality and consistent research with comprehensive underlying fundamental modelling supported by regular analyst and roadshow interactions.

Avior has proven that by working closely with our clients we can mutually develop dominant positions in certain sectors, going from strength to strength. Avior has a dedicated ESG team, having been ranked #1 in Corporate Governance research since 2008.

Analysts
Harry Botha

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