Avior - Economic Perspectives | The outlook for SA GDP growth
Recent high frequency data and confidence indices indicate that South Africa's GDP growth outlook remains weak, and we do not expect a significant improvement on the 0.8% annual growth rate recorded in 2018. There is limited data suggesting improved growth momentum in the short-term and some of the confidence indicators are at multi-year lows. The volume of mining sector and manufacturing sector output declined at annualised rates of 14% and 10% respectively in the first quarter of 2019. With a combined contribution to GDP of 20%, these two sectors are expected to subtract in excess of 2 percentage points from GDP growth in the quarter. We expect a GDP growth contraction of between 1.5% and 2% (QSAAR) in the first quarter of 2019.
Avior is a globally recognised capital markets research and trading firm, with the broadest research coverage within the region, with 100+ SA and 20+ SSA companies under coverage. Avior services clients from offices in London, Cape Town and Johannesburg.
Our research quality is consistently recognised in local and global surveys, with 18 analysts currently rated in their respective sectors (FM 2017). Value add through in-depth, innovative, high quality and consistent research with comprehensive underlying fundamental modelling supported by regular analyst and roadshow interactions.
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